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  • Laplace's demon: Theoretical determinism in the universe

    Laplace's demon: Theoretical determinism in the universe
    2024/10/24
    Could Laplace's demon to be the theory of everything in the universe? Evaluate a counterfactual to free will: What is Laplace's demon?Attempt to both prove and disprove Laplace's demonSteelman Laplace's demon and causal determinism – are they logically possible, even if they're physically unachievable within our universe?Highlight the potential conflict between determinism and the limitations imposed by the laws of physics themselves See also: 🧵https://x.com/AnthPB/status/895114612563218432 This podcast is AI-generated with NotebookLM, using the following sources, research, and analysis: ⁠A Class of Deductive Theories that cannot be Deterministic: Classical and Quantum Physics are not deterministic⁠ (Reznikoff, 2012)⁠A Contemporary Introduction to Free Will⁠ (Kane, 2005)⁠A New Kind of Science: A 15-Year View⁠ (Wolfram, 2015)⁠A philosophical essay on probabilities⁠ (Laplace, 1902)⁠Chaos: Making a New Science⁠ (Gleick, 1987)⁠Complexity: A Guided Tour ⁠(Mitchell/Toroczkai, 2010)⁠De Broglie–Bohm theory⁠ (Wikipedia, 2024.10.23)⁠Does God play dice?⁠ (Hawking, 1999)⁠If the Universe Were a Computer⁠ (Minkel, 1999)⁠Information Theory and Statistical Mechanics⁠ (Bayes, 1956)⁠Information, Physics, Quantum: The Search for Links⁠ (Wheeler, 1989)⁠Laplace's demon⁠ (Wikipedia, 2024.10.23)⁠On the origins and foundations of Laplacian determinism⁠ (Strien, 2017.10.04)⁠The Fabric of the Cosmos⁠ (Greene, 2004)⁠Theories of almost everything⁠ (Binder, 2008)⁠Ultimate physical limits to computation⁠ (Lloyd, 2000) Not investment advice; do your own due diligence! # physics thermodynamics quantum mechanics quantum theory chaos theory black holes Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle
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    13 分
  • AI accuracy: New models and progress on hallucinations

    AI accuracy: New models and progress on hallucinations
    2024/10/21
    What's the latest with artificial intelligence and models' accuracy? Three objectives: Compare and contrast traditional autoregressive LLMs (Gemini/chatGPT/Claude/LLaMA) vs nonautoregressive AI (NotebookLM) vs chain of thought reasoning models (Strawberry o1) – including the benefits, detriments, and tradeoffs of eachError rates for NotebookLM vs traditional LLMs vs CoT reasoning models – focusing on accuracy benefits from a smaller corpus of curated source materials that users feed NotebookLM when promoting (vs an LLM trained on and inferencing from the entire web)Which model (or combination of models) will be the future standard? See also: 🧵https://x.com/AnthPB/status/1848186962856865904 This podcast is AI-generated with NotebookLM, using the following sources, research, and analysis: An Investigation of Language Model Interpretability via Sentence Editing (OSU, Stevens, 2021.04)Are Auto-Regressive Large Language Models Here to Stay? (Medium, Bettencourt, 2023.12.28)Attention Is All You Need (Google Brain, Vaswani/Shazeer/Parmar/Uszkoreit/Jones/Gomez/Kaiser/Polosukhin, 2017.06.12)BART: Denoising Sequence-to-Sequence Pre-training for Natural Language Generation, Translation, and Comprehension (Facebook AI, Lewis/Liu/Goyal/Ghazvininejad/Mohamed/Levy/Stoyanov/Zettlemoyer, 2019.10.29)Chain of Preference Optimization: Improving Chain-of-Thought Reasoning in LLMs (Zhang/Du/Pang/Liu/Gao/Lin, 2024.06.13)Contra LeCun on "Autoregressive LLMs are doomed" (LessWrong, rotatingpaguro, 2023.04.10)Do large language models need sensory grounding for meaning and understanding? (LeCun, 2023.03.24)Experimenting with Power Divergences for Language Modeling (Labeau/Cohen, 2019)Exploring the Limits of Transfer Learning with a Unified Text-to-Text Transformer (Raffel/Shazeer/Roberts/Lee/Narang/Matena/Zhou/Li/Liu, 2023.09.19)Improving Non-Autoregressive Translation Models Without Distillation (Huang/Perez/Volkovs, 2022.01.28)Non-Autoregressive Neural Machine Translation (Gu/Bradbury/Xiong/Li/Socher, 2017.11.27)On the Learning of Non-Autoregressive Transformers (Huang/Tao/Zhou/Li/Huang, 2022.06.13)Towards Better Chain-of-Thought Prompting Strategies: A Survey (Yu/He/Wu/Dai/Chen, 2023.10.08).pdfXLNet: Generalized Autoregressive Pretraining for Language Understanding (Yang/Dai/Yang/Carbonell/Salakhutdinov/Le, 2020.01.22) Not investment advice; do your own due diligence!
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    14 分
  • Gaming: The state of the video game industry and Ubisoft $UBSFY

    Gaming: The state of the video game industry and Ubisoft $UBSFY
    2024/10/18
    What's the past/present/future of the gaming industry and Ubisoft? First, an overview of the video game industry – its history and evolution; market size, structure, and economics; plus current state and outlook. Then, a deep dive into Ubisoft $UBSFY – its current predicament; competitive advantages/disadvantages; financials; and future, including upcoming game releases and other catalysts. This podcast is AI-generated with NotebookLM, using the following sources, research, and analysis: The Historical Evolution of the US Video Game Industry: Applying the Industrial Organization Model (UGA, Seo, 2002) Structure and Competition in the US Home Video Game Industry (UMichigan, Williams, 2008) Vertical Integration, Exclusivity and Game Sales Performance in the US Video Game Industry (UCSC, Gil/Warzynski, 2010) ⁠Technological Tying and the Intensity of Competition: An Empirical Analysis of the Video Game Industry⁠ (Carnegie Mellon, Derdenger, 2010.10.13) The business of video games is a multi-player game: On governance choices and performance in a two-sided market in the cultural industries (Peters, 2018) Market Structure and Trend Chasing in the Video Games Industry (Medium, Joseph Clement, 2018.05.27) What's possible in the gaming industry in the next dimension (EY, 2022) Unravelling the complexity of the Video Game Industry: An integrative framework and future research directions (Goh/Al-Tabbaa/Khan, 2023.12) Essential Facts About the US Video Game Industry (Entertainment Software Association, 2024) Gaming industry emerging technology trends (PwC, 2024.01.16) The Tremendous Yet Troubled State of Gaming in 2024 (Matthew Ball, 2024.01.23) Ubisoft Universal Registration Statement 2023-24FY (Ubisoft IR, 2024.06.20) Ubisoft financial targets update 2024-25FY (Ubisoft IR, 2024.09.05) ⁠Gaming Industry: Structure and Economics⁠ (Fiveable Study Guides, 2024.07.18) The Success of Black Myth: Wukong And What It Means for Media (Matthew Ball, 2024.09.12) What Is Happening To The Gaming Industry? (State of the Arc Podcast, 2024.09.23) Assassin’s Creed maker Ubisoft faces questions over its future (CNBC, 2024.10.01) Why is Assassin’s Creed maker Ubisoft facing questions about its future? (Invezz, 2024.10.01) What in the world is going on at Ubisoft? (Fast Company, 2024.10.14) Not investment advice; do your own due diligence!
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    9 分
  • Shadow banking: The effect of nonbank lending on traditional bank credit

    Shadow banking: The effect of nonbank lending on traditional bank credit
    2024/10/17
    How has nonbank credit affected traditional bank lending? I'm particularly interested in three effects of nonbank lending (e.g. shadow banking and private credit): loans and leases in bank credit(do nonbanks crowd-out or displace banks?)bank loan performance (do nonbanks exhibit adverse selection and how do they affect broader delinquencies, chargeoffs, and defaults?)financial conditions (do nonbanks contribute to procyclical or countercyclical loosening/tightening?) This podcast is AI-generated with NotebookLM, using the following sources, research, and analysis: "⁠⁠Is Shadow Banking Really Banking?⁠⁠" (St. Louis Fed, Noeth/Sengupta, 2011.10.01)"⁠⁠Shadow Banking⁠⁠" (FRBNY, Adrian/Ashcraft/Boesky/Pozsar, 2013.12)"⁠⁠Shadow Banking and Market Based Finance⁠⁠" (IMF, Adrian, 2017.09.14)"⁠⁠Non-bank lending during financial crises⁠⁠" (FDIC, Aldasoro/Doerr/Zhou, 2022.01)"⁠⁠Liquidity, pledgeability, and the nature of lending⁠⁠" (Diamond/Hu/Rajan, 2022.03)"⁠⁠Nonbank lenders as global shock absorbers: Evidence from US monetary policy spillovers⁠⁠" (BOE, Elliott/Meisenzahl/Paydro, 2023.01.13)"⁠⁠The Disparate Outcomes of Bank‑ and Nonbank‑Financed Private Credit Expansions⁠⁠" (FRBNY, Boyarchenko/Elias, 2023.08.20)"⁠⁠Private Credit: Characteristics and Risks⁠⁠" (Fed, Cai/Haque, 2024.02.23)"⁠⁠Financing Private Credit⁠⁠" (FRBNY, Boyarchenko/Elias, 2024.08)"⁠Bank Lending to Nonbanks: A Robust Channel Fueled by Constrained Capital?⁠" (FDIC, Krainer/Vaghefi/Wang, 2024.09.05)⁠Loans and Leases in Bank Credit⁠ (St. Louis Fed/FRED⁠, 2024.10.17)⁠Commercial Bank Delinquency Rates⁠ (St. Louis Fed/FRED, 2024.10.17)⁠Commercial Bank Chargeoff Rates ⁠(⁠St. Louis Fed/FRED⁠, 2024.10.17)⁠Financial Conditions Index "FCI"⁠ (St. Louis Fed/FRED, 2024.10.17) Not investment advice; do your own due diligence! # finance financials capital markets
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    12 分