China, Iraq, and Brexit: three shifts with global consequences

Ivo Daalder is joined by Ken Moriyasu, Carla Anne Robbins, and Giles Whittell to examine the strategy and symbolism behind three major international stories. The panel discusses Xi Jinping’s Washington visit and how the language around World War II could support Beijing’s preferred historical narrative. They consider whether the White House understood the significance of its messaging, and what the summit reveals about the wider U.S.-China relationship. The conversation then turns to the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq. The guests explore whether the move benefits Iran, what it could mean for Iraq’s security and the fight against ISIS, and how American allies might interpret Washington’s changing commitments. Finally, they look at Britain’s revived Brexit debate. With economic growth and trade increasingly central to the discussion, the panel considers what renewed EU ties could mean for the UK—and what rejoining would require.

In this episode:

• Xi’s visit and the politics of historical narratives
• U.S.-China competition and strategic messaging
• The consequences of the U.S. exit from Iraq
• Iran’s influence, Iraqi security, and the ISIS threat
• Britain’s changing debate about Brexit and EU membership
• What these stories suggest about U.S. global priorities

Guests:

Ken Moriyasu, Carla Anne Robbins, and Giles Whittell

Key Topics

• What Trump’s UN speech and meeting with Xi tell us about the current state of diplomacy
• How seriously to take Europe’s warnings about Russian threats
• The challenges NATO faces in deterring—and responding to—gray-zone attacks
• Whether Germany’s far-right gains foreshadow a wider European trend
• Why cultural identity and distrust of established parties are reshaping politics

Links

Karen DeYoung - https://www.washingtonpost.com/people/karen-deyoung/

Steve Erlanger - https://www.nytimes.com/by/steven-erlanger

Jamie Dettmer - https://www.politico.eu/staff/jamie-dettmer-3/

Ivo Daalder - https://www.ivodaalder.com/

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs — belfercenter.org
World Review with Ivo Daalder — belfercenter.org/world-review-ivo-daalder

Key Topics

• Martin Wolf argues that the Fed’s move is politically significant as much as economically justified, because Donald Trump’s demand for 1 percent rates is, in his words, “insane.”
• Missy Ryan adds that Trump’s economic focus seems centered less on inflation itself and more on the stock market and the AI boom, especially with the midterms looming.
• Peter Spiegel links Fed policy to the broader debt and tech borrowing picture, arguing that AI spending may be helping prop up markets even as it pushes rates higher.
• The panel debates whether higher rates can really fight a global inflation environment shaped by war, oil prices, and supply shocks.
• On Canada and Europe, Peter Spiegel says Mark Carney’s approach is partly symbolic but politically powerful, since it has helped rally Canadian patriotism against Trump.
• Missy Ryan stresses that Canada’s stance is rooted in sovereignty and values, but also constrained by how tightly integrated the Canadian and U.S. economies remain.
• Martin Wolf argues Europe is in a very different position from Canada because most of its trade is internal, and it could survive even a major rupture with the United States.
• The discussion returns repeatedly to the question of permanence: is Trump’s approach a temporary disruption, or a long-term reordering of U.S. alliances and trade policy?
• In the Saudi segment, Missy Ryan describes the Houthi conflict and the Iran war as a destabilizing force that has widened old regional fractures and exposed U.S. limits.
• Peter Spiegel raises the possibility that Gulf states may respond by diversifying security ties and increasing their own defense spending, even if China is not yet able to replace the United States.
• Martin Wolf suggests that if the United States becomes unreliable, regional powers may eventually move closer to Iran and a broader regional balance of power, rather than count on Washington.
• The episode closes on oil prices, with Wolf arguing that while the market could still worsen, it has so far adjusted better than expected and may not reach the catastrophic levels many feared.

Links

Missy Ryan - https://www.theatlantic.com/author/missy-ryan/

Martin Wolf - https://www.ft.com/martin-wolf

Peter Spiegel - https://www.washingtonpost.com/people/peter-spiegel/

Ivo Daalder - https://www.ivodaalder.com/

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs — belfercenter.org
World Review with Ivo Daalder — belfercenter.org/world-review-ivo-daalder