Purdue 35-0. Ranked #1.

• New record high. $752 today, but reached $772.
• Maybe running ahead of itself a little, but still pure streaming play with no end of growth in site.
• Q4: Tyson, Football, Squid…

Tesla up almost 22% today. At $260. High was 410.

Sandy Munroe set me straight!

• Investor Deck
• Everyone should simply listen to the Earnings Call.
• Elon said 20-30% growth next year.
• Full autonomy approved and ride-hailing in CA and TX in 2025.
• Safer than humans by Q2 2025
• Full scale production of CyberCab by 2026. No steering wheel and no pedals. Big screen for movies and comfortable.
• Cybertruck became the third best-selling EV in Q3 in the U.S. (behind only Model Y and Model 3)
• Increased AI training compute by over 75% in Q3
• Over two billion miles driven cumulatively on FSD (Supervised)4 as of Q3 with more than 50% on V12
• Two key points coming here:
  • Ability to learn. 10k miles per intervention.
  • Optimus!!!
    • Dexterity movement. 22 degrees of freedom. Human = 27. Doorknobs.
    • Think about the AI real-world functionality.
    • Most advanced humanoid robot by a long-shot!
    • Only company that can scale manufacturing.
    • Optimus will be most valuable part of company.
• The Services and Other business achieved a record gross profit in Q3, growing over 90% year-on-year.

Financials:

• A lot of talk about the “machines” that build the machines. Most advanced factories in the world!
• Energy revenue up 52% YoY and Services up 29% YoY.
• Gross profit up 20%, with revenue up 8%

Uber Demand aggregator?

Self-driving cars:

WSJ on Waymo and San Francisco, LA, Phoenix and Austin.

• Waymo is on a marketing blitz that includes social-media ads promoting the privacy of its cars for date night
• Also going to partner thru Uber app.
• Competition is good and will keep regulators in check.
  • Google Waymo.
  • Amazon: Zoox.
  • GM: Cruise

Googles Waymo Now Obviously the Leader in Self-Driving Cars 🤣

Lot’s talk tech:

Waymo uses a combination of sensors and software to enable autonomous driving.

Government Over-reach

• This story of strangulation by over-regulation from @elonmusk about the government requiring @SpaceX to assess whether their rockets could potentially hit SHARKS and WHALES is side-splittingly hilarious.
• Seals
• DOGE Dept of Government Efficiency
• CCDH…Speaking X Twitter: Leaked documents from the Center for Countering Digital Hate reveal their primary goal is to "Kill Musk's Twitter"

CA Electric Bills!

Recommendations:

• Rogan and Jelly Roll
• Trump Going on Rogan Podcast Tomorrow

Bettina's Fall/Winter 2024 Fall Fashion Show

Oregon wins 32-31 over Ohio State

Exploiting loophole in rules. NCAA to close loophole.

• In the National Football League, the clock reverts back to the original time on a 12-man penalty — that is not the case in college football.
• 10 seconds to go. 3rd and 25.
• Put an extra defender on field. Then either:
  • (a) Buckeyes make a play and decline penalty. Or
  • (b) Penalty accepted, and 4 seconds off clock. Only 5 yds gained.
• Now only 6 seconds on clock and need 10-12 yds to make field goal more realistic.
• Time more important than yards.

529 Plans and Markets

• Fidelity or Vanguard. Done.
  • Wealthfront: couldn’t find the underlying portfolio holdings?
  • Holdings are WAY too conservative.
• 6000/month &6% or 7&7. Gets you between $200-$250k.
• 529 Rollovers?
  • Can’t roll it all to a Roth. $35,000 lifetime.

RoboTaxi - We-Robot Event

• Elon key note.
• Stayed in LA at Burbank Hotel. Nice.
• Elevator operator analogy.
• Cyber Cab unveil. Below $30k. No wheels or pedals. Production in 2026 (optimistic).
  • Inductive charging. No plug.
• Fully autonomous unsupervised FSD in CA and Texas in 2025. Model 3
• Van that can carry up to 20 people or packaging.
• Optimus
  • Serving drinks and interacting with everyone there. Rumor is some human involvement.
  • My interaction with Optimus. Sub-optimal
  • Should cost $20-30k.
  • Still thinks it will be biggest product ever of any kind. Everyone will want an optimus “buddy”.

Nvidia and XAI:

• Jensen Juang on Brad Gerstner Podcast.
• 100m AI assistants to aid his workforce.
• Jensen talking to Brad: https://x.com/ajtourville/status/1845481395625304331?s=51&t=YUkdoBz4yNifBaQlQUp3-g
  • “Never been done before – xAI did in 19 days what everyone else needs one year to accomplish.
  • “Easily the fastest super computer on the planet”.
  • Normally 3 years to plan and 1 year to set up.
  • That is superhuman – There's only one person in the world who could do that – Elon Musk is singular in his understanding of engineering.”
• From Pierre Ferragu

Hiive

• Can buy SpaceX and XaI there.
• Sometimes with major conditions, like annual fee and “carry” of 10-20%.

Netflix Earnings: Strong.

Crypto

Best asset class returns in 5 and 10 years…not fair to go back further?

• How much to own?
• Why?
• And where to hold it/ how to invest in it?
• IBIT and ETHA.
• Tight correlation to underlying assets.
• Managed by iShares/ Blackrock, so probably good controls in place.
• Fees are reasonable.

Recommendations:

• Wife: Citadel Diana on Amazon

Interest rates down. Money market from 5.3% to 4.7%

Get in now or wait?

CAPE Ratio still high at 35.

Mutual Funds! High Fees!

Beating the market

Inflation Milton Friedman on inflation

Netflix

Stock all time high around $730.

Up 49% YTD, compared to S&P500 at 23%

Piper Sandler analyst Matt Farrell said Netflix "is a clear leader in streaming," according to The Fly. He upgraded the company to overweight from neutral and boosted his price target to $800 from $650.

• TD Cowen analyst John Blackledge raised the firm's price target on Netflix to $820 from $775 while maintaining a buy rating on the shares.
• Netflix (NFLX) is expected to benefit from a long runway for revenue growth and a deepening competitive moat, Morgan Stanley said in a report Thursday.

The report also pointed to above consensus expectations for operating leverage and EPS.

"Our analysis of Netflix new 1H24 engagement report reinforces our bullish view," Morgan Stanley said, adding that the latest engagement report is backing the "Netflix content advantage," referring to its original programming, international content, and the value of its content library.

Following "peak TV" and recent strikes, Hollywood's new normal favors Netflix, with reduced competition for content and media studios open to licensing again, the report said. It said the ad-tier introduction would also help raise revenue.

Morgan Stanley raised its price target for the stock to $820 from $780 while reiterating its overweight rating.

Apple

At $228 vs high of $234.

• Downgraded by Jeffries.
• Is Apple Intelligence a thing?
• Iphone is 50% of sales
• Is Iphone 16 enough?

Me thesis:

• Entire family uses.
• Customer service is insanely good!!
• All photos there.
• Ear buds.

Amazon

• $187, was around $200.
• Not sure how you bet against Amazon. In 2023, Amazon was the third largest digital ad publisher in the United States, behind Google and Facebook. Amazon's global ad revenue reached $49 billion in 2023, which is nearly triple its 2019 result.
• Fabric of life.
• Everyday we get a package.
• First place I go to search/buy.
• Free returns. Easy.

Microsoft

• To buy 3-mile island.

Newsom bans voter id requirements.

Elon Musk on Tucker

• 23.30 on is Epstein list discussion.
  • Videos. Diddy and Epstein.
• 28.00 - How will they let X continue? Lawfare!! Illegal to discriminate asslym seekers, but can’t hire as SpaceX. Point is DOJ is weaponized.

Cuban on All In Podcast.

Monsters on Netflix

Slow Horses (called it White Horses before)

Wife watching “Troy: Fall of a City”

Life
Yoga life.

• College admissions:
• Tulane:
  • Tuition and Fees: $69k
  • Housing: $11k.
  • Meals: $8k
  • Books: $1k
  • Total: $88,000. * 4 = $352,000
• Wow. College can be very expensive!

Diddy

https://youtu.be/NKMtZm2YuBE?si=irc0uxpLLHbHpBjE&t=53

What’s up with Diddy?

• His fashion label, Sean John. Not a bad name
• The rapper is “going to fight this with all of his energy and all of his might,” and during a court hearing argued that the so-called freak-offs — marathon sexual productions that prosecutors say involved hired sex workers and women coerced to perform sexual acts for the gratification of Combs and others — were consensual, if unconventional. “Is it sex trafficking?” he asked in court last week. “No, not if everybody wants to be there.”
• Lot’s of tapes recordings. So be careful if you go to a sex party. Know you’re getting recorded. Be cool with it.
• authorities say they seized “more than 1,000 bottles of baby oil and lubricant

Any similarities to Epstein here?

Markets

Everything is up. S&P 500 up 20% YTD.

As a reminder: 10%: Double in 7 years. 7% double in 10 years.

What is PE or Price to Earnings? PE definition and explanation

• When you make an investment and pay cash you’re looking to receive more cash ultimately than you put in.
• Price to Earnings Ratio.
  • Value of company; i.e. Market Cap. Divided by Earnings (12 months).
  • Example:
    • Company is valued at $100m. Earns $5m per year. PE = 20.
    • Could think of it as 20 years to get your money back thru earnings.

Cape Ratio

Cape Ratio (like PE) average of top 500 US Companies since 1950 is about 20. Now it is at 35. Seems high right? Don't be surprised if there is a 10-20% correction in next 6-12 months.

NY Mayor

Didn’t toe the line and he is paying the price.

Eric Adams indicted.

Bill Ackman explains.

Eric Speech

FAA Hates SpaceX

• Rep. Kiley Questions FAA Administrator Michael Whitaker at T&I Committee Hearing
• SpaceX letter refuting everything the FAA administrator said.
• Let them launch for crying out loud.

Tesla Stock Booming
I somehow got invited to Tesla AI event!?

Meta

Orion Glasses

Netflix

All time high. Still the best pure streaming play.

Southwest

• No more open seating and adding premium seating!

Recommendations:

• Instigators on Apple TV
• Chamath on Joe Rogan.

Personal

• Yoga
• Golf Lesson

Markets

• S&P500 up 20%
• VGT up 19%
• Dividends/value up 11%. 3.36% yield

BTW: 5 years ago you buy

• VGT: you’re up 2.7x. $100k = $270k
• VOO: up 2x = $200k
• At 7% annualized return = double in 10 years.
• At 10% annualized return = double in 7 years.
• At 20% annualized return = double in 4 years

• Fed just cut by 0.5%. First cut since 2020. I.e. Covid.
• Current federal-funds rate is at 5.25% to 5.50%,
• Expect 0.75% of cuts in 2024. Meeting Sept 18. 2 more this year.
• 2.00% to 2.25% by year-end 2026.

So what does this mean?

• Money Market lower returns.
• Mortgage rates should come down.
• Car loans down. Good for Tesla.

Government Debt per WSJ

According to recent data, interest expense currently makes up around 13% of the US government budget, representing the third largest spending category behind Social Security and Medicare.

Demand for AI

Listen to Larry Ellison explaining the crazy demand for AI.

Netflix:

• All time high.
• I still think its recession proof!
• Seems like Q4 subscription #’s should be HUGE! WHY?
• New events: Boxing: Tyson and Jake Paul
  • The fight, which will be held over eight two-minute rounds, will now take place on November 15 at the At&T Stadium in Texas.Tyson, 58 is 30 years older than Jake.
  • Squid game: Squid Game Season 2 will premiere on Dec. 26, Most-watched series: Squid Game became Netflix's most-watched series and the most-watched program in 94 countries.
  • NFL Football x-mas. On Dec. 25, 2024, we’ll be the global home of the NFL’s two Christmas Day marquee games:

Tesla

• Tesla Semi: PepsiCo drivers love it. PepsiCo said today that their drivers who operate the company's Tesla Semi trucks have reported that, after driving the electric truck, they don't want to go back to driving a diesel truck.

Elon on All In Podcast Summit

• 15:40 on Fresh Water dumping and $140k fine.
• Inspiration.
  • Uncrewed landing to Mars in 2026
  • Crews in 2028 if successful (and if government gets out of way).

Recommendations:

• All In - Megyn Kelly
• All In - John Mearsheimer and Jeffrey Sachs. Univ of Chicago and Columbia.
• All In - Interview with Dave Portnoy
• Napoleon on Apple.

Trump & Kamala Debate: Boring and horrible. Name calling. Accusations. Nothing interesting or intelligent.

Markets:

• YTD: S&P up 16%.
• Tech (QQQ) up 15%.
• High Quality up 10%.

Building Wealth for your kids:
My Blog analysis on Building wealth for kids.

• 529s and Roth 401k.
• Small investments over time create generational wealth.

Nvidia

• $3t market cap. $30b revenue/qtr. $28b in cashflow.
• Mgmt style: Jensen Huang on Working.

Government vs Capitalists:

• All in at 56.30: Friedberg: Do you want someone who has lived in government or is not a government operative? Career civil servants vs. capitalists.
• 1.17.40. Government spending is 50% of GDP. So could say ½ of people are employed directly or indirectly by government. Free market system is finished if there are more “takers” than “makers”.

Government Efficiency (oxymoron):

Donald Trump on Government efficiency commission:

From WSJ: Trump Proposes 15% Tax Rate for Some Companies and a Role for Elon Musk in Government

Elon Musk has said that all laws/regs should be auto-repealed after 20 years or some time. Otherwise we’re in a web of bureaucracy.

Getting a Loan from DOE is near impossible. I have a story.

Tesla

Tesla Robotaxi day on October 10.

SpaceX

The company confirmed that the SpaceX Crew Dragon spacecraft carrying the crew reached its peak altitude of 1,400.7 kilometers (870 miles).

That distance surpassed the record set by NASA’s 1966 Gemini 11 mission

Also!!! 60 day delay for Starship launch.

• “Unfortunately, we continue to be stuck in a reality where it takes longer to do the government paperwork to license a rocket launch than it does to design and build the actual hardware,” the firm said. “This should never happen and directly threatens America’s position as the leader in space.”
• https://www.spacex.com/updates/

Nuclear Power imperative by Bill and Brad.

Recommendations:

Bryson DeShambeau on YouTube:

• Breaking 50. With Tony Romo (64 is his lowest round). Eagled 1st hole!!

Podcasts:

• Smartless interview with Michael Keaton.
• Rogan Actors
• Russel Crowe
• Dennis Quaid

TV: Wyatt Earp on Netflix.

Yacht sinks:

• Living the dream. Anchored off Sicily coast in late summer. Storm sinks you in early morning. Dead.
• 15 people rescued, including 1 year old girl.
• 6 dead. 5 found in sunken boat.
• 184ft $35m yacht.
• 165 ft deep. In tact.

Investments and Markets

• Markets booming. year-to-date
  • S&P: 20%
  • Tech: 18%
  • Div: 14%
  • Bitcoin up 40%!
  • Netflix up 44%.

Netflix!

• All time high. $700.
• Jake Paul, Tyson, Squid. NFL.
• Excited for Wyatt Earp.

Mag 7:

• I can’t think of a reason to bet against any of these?
• Apple: all i use
• Microsoft: embedded in every corporation (redwood).
• Nvidia: Years ahead of competition.
• Meta: Open source AI.
• Google: Break it up! Worth more!
• Amazon: Only place I buy from.
• Tesla: Robot in my kitchen prepping my coffee and other beverages. (10 years).
  • Ford has said its EV business is on pace to lose about $5 billion this year. In the three-month period ended in June, the automaker lost about $44,000 on every electric vehicle that it sold.
  • is canceling plans for a large electric sport-utility vehicle and expects to take $1.9 billion in related special charges and write-downs, as automakers continue adjusting their EV plans because of softer-than-expected demand.

The AI Race:

Politics and Govt Policy

• Policies. Friedberg on Price fixing: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xA5B6quoahY
  • 1:06:35
• Biggest problem with both parties is excessive spending to please big money backers and constituents.
  • Milton Friedman on spending: Nobel Prize-winning economist: https://x.com/icannot_enough/status/1824411533671080335?s=51&t=YUkdoBz4yNifBaQlQUp3-g
• Where is Kamala.
• Obama at DMC speech. Pretty dynamic.
• Trump on Theo Von vs Trump on X-spaces with Elon. All in Podcast
  • Talked a lot about drugs and alcohol.
  • Trump has never smoked or drank alcohol. Pretty remarkable. Brotherly advice (me on the otherhand…)

Saving for your kids:

• Probably need $250,000. Rule of 7&7. $7000/yr at 7% over ~18 years.
• Roth IRA. Brokerage Account.

Retirement Strategies:

• My simplest rule is $5m. Why? Most people can live pretty good on that. 5% return, $250k/year.
• Age 45 have $1m. Double in 7 and again 7: at 60 you’re at $4m.
• Very stressful when you don’t have an income.

Recommendations:

• Work your ass off.
• Hit the gym every day; or at least break a sweat.
• Dinner with kids.

Life updates:

• 20 years of marriage!!
• Cost Rica

Why talk about Politics and government?

• Has a profound effect on business.
  • U-Haul Announces Top Growth States of 2023
    • Texas netted the largest number of movers in one-way U-Haul® equipment in 2023, marking the third consecutive year it has finished atop the U-Haul Growth Index.

― Milton Friedman

Example: Contained within the 2021 infrastructure bill, the Broadband Equity Access and Deployment (BEAD) program authorized more than $42 billion in grants, to "connect everyone in America to reliable, affordable high-speed internet by the end of the decade."

• Not one single household connected.
• Starlink could do now for a fraction of the cost. Its entirely obvious.
• Among several examples, the senators noted that NTIA's BEAD proposal "requires subgrantees to prioritize certain segments of the workforce, such as 'individuals with past criminal records' and 'justice-impacted […] participants.'"
• Bill Gurley and Brad Gurstner on FCC

Ben and Mark Show: Key Silicon Valley leaders turning on Democratic policies. They have Billions $ at stake and do not want to talk about politics, but its paramount to the future of tech and innovation in the US.

• Technology, Economy and Military.
• For example:
  • Regulatory agencies have been green lit to use brute force investigations, prosecutions, intimidation, and threats to hobble new industries, such as Blockchain and Artificial Intelligence.
  • Energy: Europe is the ghost of xmas future. Need to be energy independent!
  • Tax: Structure! Unrealized Gains! – Not rate discussion.

Trump vs. Kamala?

Kamala policies>

• Trump:
  • Capitalist and pro-business. Freedom of speech.
  • Reasonable border policy.
  • No more forever wars.
  • Supports independent energy.
  • Tough on crime. Not even tough, but basic security.

Tesla

• AI, Robotics and Energy.
  • Real-world AI. Explain. Not LLM
  • Cars and Optimus.
  • Battery and Solar manufacturing.

Stocks and Economy

• Market Correction.
  • On Monday the 3rd day of “down”. Market down 8-9%, Tech 13%, Nvidia 28%:
• CAPE at 35. Since 2000 Average is 27.

Recommendations.

• All In podcast with Trump.
• Rogan and Jordan Peterson
• Andreesen Horowitz.
• Presumed Innocent. - Apple
• Your Honor - Netflix (airplane qualification)
• Land of Bad - Netflix (airplane)