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Consumers Remain Cautiously Optimistic About Inflation and Labor Market in New York Fed's August 2024 Survey
- 2024/09/09
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Consumers Remain Cautiously Optimistic About Inflation and Labor Market in New York Fed's August 2024 Survey
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あらすじ・解説
NEW YORK—The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Center for Microeconomic Data today released the August 2024 Survey of Consumer Expectations, revealing that consumers' expectations about inflation and the labor market have remained largely stable. The survey's key findings indicate consumers anticipate a gradual rise in inflation over the next few years but don't foresee drastic changes to the labor market conditions in the near term.
Inflation expectations for the short term, defined as the coming year, showed a slight increase compared to July 2024. On average, respondents expect inflation to rise by 3.2% over the next 12 months, marginally up from the 3.0% noted in the previous month's survey. This upward trend, though modest, indicates that consumers are factoring in persistent price pressures despite recent efforts to stabilize costs.
When looking at medium-term expectations, spanning three years into the future, consumers predicted an inflation rate of around 2.8%. This figure aligns closely with the Federal Reserve's long-term target, suggesting that the bank's monetary policies are successfully anchoring public sentiment. Five-year expectations held steady at 2.5%, demonstrating a belief that inflation will eventually moderate to align with historical averages.
In terms of labor market outlook, consumers' expectations remained relatively stable. The proportion of respondents who believe the unemployment rate will rise a year from now was virtually unchanged at 32.5%, reflecting cautious optimism about sustained job market health. Additionally, the expectations for median household income growth stood at 2.9%, unchanged from July, which indicates steady consumer confidence in wage growth despite inflationary concerns.
Job loss expectations decreased slightly, with 11.8% of consumers fearing they would lose their jobs in the next 12 months, down from 12.1% in the previous month. This minor drop suggests an ongoing sense of job security among workers, contributing positively to consumer spending and overall economic sentiment.
Furthermore, home price appreciation expectations also saw a small rise, with consumers predicting a 3.7% increase in the next year, up from 3.5%. This increase comes despite higher mortgage rates, indicating that consumers foresee continued strength in the housing market.
The results of the August 2024 Survey of Consumer Expectations provide valuable insights into the public's outlook on inflation and the labor market. The stability in inflation and labor market expectations suggests that while there are inflationary pressures, consumers remain cautiously optimistic about future economic conditions. The Federal Reserve's ongoing measures appear effective in managing public expectations, thereby contributing to economic stability in a challenging financial landscape.
Inflation expectations for the short term, defined as the coming year, showed a slight increase compared to July 2024. On average, respondents expect inflation to rise by 3.2% over the next 12 months, marginally up from the 3.0% noted in the previous month's survey. This upward trend, though modest, indicates that consumers are factoring in persistent price pressures despite recent efforts to stabilize costs.
When looking at medium-term expectations, spanning three years into the future, consumers predicted an inflation rate of around 2.8%. This figure aligns closely with the Federal Reserve's long-term target, suggesting that the bank's monetary policies are successfully anchoring public sentiment. Five-year expectations held steady at 2.5%, demonstrating a belief that inflation will eventually moderate to align with historical averages.
In terms of labor market outlook, consumers' expectations remained relatively stable. The proportion of respondents who believe the unemployment rate will rise a year from now was virtually unchanged at 32.5%, reflecting cautious optimism about sustained job market health. Additionally, the expectations for median household income growth stood at 2.9%, unchanged from July, which indicates steady consumer confidence in wage growth despite inflationary concerns.
Job loss expectations decreased slightly, with 11.8% of consumers fearing they would lose their jobs in the next 12 months, down from 12.1% in the previous month. This minor drop suggests an ongoing sense of job security among workers, contributing positively to consumer spending and overall economic sentiment.
Furthermore, home price appreciation expectations also saw a small rise, with consumers predicting a 3.7% increase in the next year, up from 3.5%. This increase comes despite higher mortgage rates, indicating that consumers foresee continued strength in the housing market.
The results of the August 2024 Survey of Consumer Expectations provide valuable insights into the public's outlook on inflation and the labor market. The stability in inflation and labor market expectations suggests that while there are inflationary pressures, consumers remain cautiously optimistic about future economic conditions. The Federal Reserve's ongoing measures appear effective in managing public expectations, thereby contributing to economic stability in a challenging financial landscape.