In this episode, Elijah Eilert sits down with Étienne Garbugli. Étienne, the CEO of Sliced, veteran founder, and author of several books, shares his insights.

The conversation centers around Étienne’s most recent book, Find Your Market. The book explores how to effectively find Product/Market Fit when innovations are already built or at least partially developed without having factored in the market need properly. Most innovators understand the need for research and experimentation before committing significant resources to but in reality, many organisations, Research and Development departments, and especially universities all too often do not adhere to it.

• Étienne kicks off by reframing how we should think about innovation—not just products, but improvements in services, processes, and distribution. He makes a strong case for continuous iteration as the key to staying relevant in today’s hyper-competitive landscape.

• Étienne discusses different approaches to measuring innovation, from immediate goals (Horizon 1) to long-term, high-uncertainty efforts. He shares his perspective on why understanding progress in increments is key, especially when navigating high-risk innovation projects.

• Elijah and Étienne explore a major, yet often overlooked, barrier to innovation—career progression. In organisations, those who get promoted are often seen as people who make the “right” decisions. This clashes with the exploratory and uncertain nature of genuine innovation, which frequently involves taking risks and failing.

• A significant portion of the conversation focuses on Étienne’s book, Find Your Market: Discover and Win Your Product’s Best Market Opportunity. He walks listeners through his bottom-up approach to identifying markets—starting from precise, actionable customer segments and expanding outward—contrasted against traditional top-down TAM analysis. Elijah and Étienne jokingly refer to it as “Lean Startup, but backwards,” emphasising how companies with an existing product can work backward to find Product/Market-Fit but in a lean way.

• They discuss how to align innovation metrics with broader business strategy. Measuring learning outcomes and value creation through insights—rather than just focusing on short-term financial gains. Étienne also shares how even seasoned entrepreneurs often realise their understanding of markets evolves significantly over time.

• Étienne explains how his company, Sliced helps companies break down broader target audiences into smaller, more actionable segments. This process enables companies to better understand where their true market opportunities...

Elijah Eilert is talking to Peter LePiane about innovation within large organizations. Part 2 of the podcast explores various aspects of innovation related decision-making. Peter opens up about his background in science and computer science, his Startup journey and how he nearly founded Airbnb and Shopify. He introduces Estimatic, his latest venture, software designed to model uncertain projects and ideas.

The episode addresses the concept of innovation accounting, common misconceptions in business case analysis, and the value of information by connecting learning to financial outcomes. The episode challenges traditional practices in organizations and focuses on the importance of understanding human behaviour to achieve success for new products and organisational change management.

Throughout this episode, the duo explores a myriad of topics central to innovation-related decision-making and highlights the value of information, connecting it to financial outcomes. Unravelling the concept of innovation accounting, Peter debunks the common misconceptions prevalent in business case analysis. The episode challenges traditional practices and underscores the pivotal role of comprehending human behaviour in achieving success, whether for new products or the intricacies of change management within organizations.

[01:43] Understanding Human Behavior in Change Management

• Products succeed or fail based on human behavior, as do organizational changes. Understanding human behavior is therefore crucial.
• Peter recommends checking out Lean Change Management and gives a shoutout to Jason Little!

[05:23] Peter’s Background

• Peter’s background as a software engineer.
• How he transitioned from science to computer science at the University of Waterloo.
• His journey into the startup world.
• How Peter launched Airbnb and Shopify (kinda).
• Peter’s experience working on web development and e-commerce projects.

[16:15] Estimatic

• Peter explains his startup, Estimatic, a Monte Carlo tool for modelling uncertainties.
• The importance of accurately depicting uncertainty in business models.
• Critique of the misleading hockey stick growth projections in startup presentations.
• The need to provide a range with a probability of future outcomes instead of point predictions.

[25:51] Challenges in Corporate Innovation Decision-Making

• Addressing the challenges of making decisions in large corporations.
• Mentioning the lack of recognition for risk management in decision-making.
• Highlighting the absence of structures rewarding risk management.

[26:53] The Concept of Innovation Accounting

• Elijah and Peter delve into the concept of innovation accounting and its evolution.
• Explain how innovation accounting combines the uncertain nature of innovation with concrete numerical measurements.
• Emphasize the importance of connecting learning to financial outcomes.
• Discussing the use of Monte Carlo simulations in innovation accounting.

Quantifying Learning and Progress...

Elijah Eilert is talking to Peter LePiane about innovation within large organizations. Part one of the podcast, explores the core principles of innovation, the challenges associated with measuring its impact, and the formidable obstacles faced in corporate landscapes.

Starting with the question of “What is Innovation?” Peter offers his perspective, emphasizing the fusion of novelty and impact in the concept of innovation. According to him, innovation involves the introduction of genuinely new ideas or solutions to the world, with a keen focus on how these innovations are received within the market. The episode underscores that innovation is not limited to grandiose endeavours like space exploration; it can manifest subtly yet profoundly in various aspects of a business. Transitioning to the topic of “Measuring Innovation,” the podcast shines a spotlight on this often-overlooked aspect that is crucial for evaluating the effectiveness of innovation efforts. Finally, the conversation confronts the significant hurdles that hinder innovation within large organizations. From challenges rooted in organizational design and financial models to the complexities of incentive structures and cultural mindsets, the barriers that can impede progress are dissected. The episode aims to provide practical insights into overcoming these challenges and fostering a culture that actively promotes and sustains innovation.

[02:28] What is Innovation?

Peter’s perspective on innovation combines novelty and impact. For him, innovation is about introducing something new and meaningful to the world, with a focus on both the idea itself and its reception in the market.

• Innovation is a complex concept, often meaning different things to different people.
• Key element: Newness – something genuinely new or groundbreaking.
• Example: Even improving efficiency in a manufacturing plant could be considered innovative if it introduces a new approach.
• Not necessarily about launching rockets or exploring Mars, but introducing something novel to a market.
• Novelty is essential, but it’s not enough on its own
• The Importance of Impact
• Innovation must have a tangible impact or value.
• People must care about it for it to truly matter.
• Requires a practical business model or a container to bring it to market effectively.
• The market should demand it, making it an essential ingredient of innovation.
• The “Tree Falling in the Forest” Analogy
• Innovation that goes unnoticed or unappreciated might not truly qualify as innovation.
• It’s like the philosophical question of whether a tree falling in the forest makes a sound if nobody hears it.

[08:28] How Should Innovation be Measured?

• Interrogating the Notion of Measurement
• The podcast delves into the intriguing question of how to quantify innovation effectively.
• The focus is on whether measurement means seeking signs of success and discerning the impact of innovation.

• Benchmarking Against Initial Expectations
• The discussion emphasizes that assessing innovation often involves gauging whether it lived up to the expectations initially set for it.
• Innovation frequently demands substantial investments in terms of time, resources, and capital.
• These expectations can be both internal, rooted in what the innovator believes the market will desire, and external, influenced by competitors or industry...