This weekend and the start of the trading week were heavily impacted by President Trump announcing tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China. They were ultimately postponed for Mexico and Canada, but he has the EU in his sights as well This edition we discuss central banks in the context of tariffs, but also what the non-tariff fundamentals are suggesting for policy going forward. The Fed paused its cutting cycle just last week, while the BoC and ECB cut 25bp and the BoE looks poised to do so later this week.

Participants:

• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
• Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
• Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates Strategist
• Robert Thompson (Research), Macro Rates Strategist

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

The biggest known unknown for economies and financial markets is what will happen with tariffs – are they just being threatened as a bargaining chip for transactional purposes, if they come to fruition what will their breadth, size, and duration be, and will trading partners retaliate. Unfortunately for investors, the matrix of possibilities is endless, and each has a low probability chance. In this edition our asset class experts provide answers to the difficult questions.

Participants:

• Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy
• Elsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX Strategy
• Lori Calvasina (Research), Head of U.S. Equity Strategy

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Will Trump’s bite match his bark on tariffs? If it does, the economic damage could be severe but central bank responses are not clear cut in the short term. While Trump policy is the primary risk factor, there are many other question marks – Is the Fed finished the easing cycle? What happens with Canada politics? Will the ongoing rout in global bond markets continue? Is the USD destined to remain strong? – that are important for asset markets in 2025.

Participants:

• Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
• Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy
• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
• Elsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX Strategy

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts