Santorini Greece Earthquake Crisis - February 2025

Executive Summary:

Santorini, Greece, a major tourist destination, is experiencing a significant seismic swarm beginning in late January 2025. Thousands of earthquakes, some exceeding magnitude 5, have prompted a state of emergency, mass evacuations, and growing concerns about the upcoming tourist season. While scientists do not believe a volcanic eruption is imminent and larger earthquakes are not assured, the unusual nature of the swarm and the potential for damage are causing widespread anxiety and economic disruption. The crisis has exposed infrastructure vulnerabilities and sparked debate about investment in the island's resilience.

Key Themes and Information:

• Seismic Activity:
• A significant earthquake swarm began around January 26, 2025, with thousands of tremors affecting Santorini and nearby islands like Amorgos.
• The strongest earthquake recorded was a magnitude 5.2.
• "It's estimated that about 12,000 earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 1 have been registered in the area near Santorini and Amorgos since Jan. 26"
• The epicenter of the earthquakes appeared to be moving northward.
• The European-Mediterranean Seismological Center described the swarm as "very unusual," noting that the magnitude and rate of earthquakes have been increasing, rather than decreasing as typically expected after a large quake.
• Scientists have installed underwater seismographs to better understand the earthquake activity.
• While some small events have been recorded below Santorini, they are "pretty sparse, and they mostly predate this swarm."
• The swarm began with small earthquakes. Starting on February 1, the seismicity started to intensify, broaden, and move slightly towards the northeast.
• Focal mechanisms are largely normal-type, striking NE-SW.
• "the seismicity may be shallowing as it migrates northeastward. This kind of migration would be consistent with the movement of euids through the crust, which remains the most likely explanation for what is going on."
• "The most likely situation is that the swarm will settle down without triggering a large earthquake. However, the risk is certainly elevated above its normal level."
• "The NE-trending Ios Fault Zone appears to be a key factor in this seismic swarm. The concentration of seismicity at 10–15 km depth aligns well with the fault’s downward extension. One possible explanation is that fluids—potentially hot—are triggering seismic activity."
• State of Emergency and Response:
• A state of emergency was declared on Santorini and later Amorgos.
• "Santorini is under a state of emergency until March 3 to "address the emergency"
• Rescue teams have been deployed to Santorini.
• Schools were closed, and public events were canceled.
• Access to coastal areas and clifftop viewpoints was restricted due to landslide risks.
• The Greek government responded positively to proposals to support the existing workforce on the island and those looking to work during the season.
• Aid was expedited by the declaration of a state of emergency.
• Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis visited the island to assess the situation and urge calm.
• "We hope this phenomenon ends quickly and the island fully returns to its normal pace," Mitsotakis said.

"Gulf of America" Controversy

Subject: Review of the "Gulf of America" naming dispute and related implications.

Meteorology Matters summarizes the controversy surrounding the potential renaming of the "Gulf of Mexico" to the "Gulf of America" by the United States government, specifically under the direction of President Trump. The change, initiated via executive order, has sparked international debate, particularly with Mexico, and raises significant practical and political implications for mapping, weather forecasting, and international relations. Mexico is considering legal action, and agencies like NOAA are struggling to implement the change while maintaining international consistency and relevance.

Key Themes & Information:

1. The Name Change Initiative:

• President Trump issued a decree/executive order to rename the Gulf of Mexico to the "Gulf of America." The impetus for this change is not explicitly stated, but Time refers to a Trump declaration that he "would change the Gulf's name."
• The NOAA is in the process of implementing the Executive Order. Susan Buchanan, a National Weather Service spokesperson, said that the change would affect all of the agency's weather products, "Work is underway to update naming conventions as quickly as possible on nautical charts, online maps, weather products, websites and other materials across NOAA."

1. Mexican Opposition and Potential Legal Action:

• The Mexican government, under President Claudia Sheinbaum, strongly opposes the name change, arguing that the name "Gulf of Mexico" dates back to 1607 and is internationally recognized by the United Nations.
• Sheinbaum indicated that Mexico sent a letter to Google stating it was "wrong" and that "the entire Gulf of Mexico cannot be called the Gulf of America."
• Mexico is considering a civil lawsuit against Google for adopting the "Gulf of America" name on its maps, especially as it is displayed to users within the United States. Sheinbaum stated her government "wouldn’t rule out filing a civil lawsuit against Google if it… decided to call the Gulf of Mexico and the southeastern United States the ‘Gulf of America.’"

1. Geopolitical & Historical Context:

• Sheinbaum used historical context to subtly criticize Trump. She referred to the constitution of Apatzingán, in which the North American territory was previously identified as "Mexican America".
• The dispute highlights potential clashes over geographic naming conventions and their political significance, especially concerning shared borders and resources. The Time article also notes a similar issue with the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo border river.

1. Implementation Challenges:

• NOAA faces challenges in implementing the name change in weather forecasts, especially for areas outside the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone. The Axios article states, "The Hurricane Center hasn't determined yet how it will handle its forecasts outside the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone while being consistent with Trump's executive order."
• Google's approach has been to adapt the displayed name based on the user's location, showing "Gulf of America" in the U.S. and "Gulf of Mexico" in Mexico, or a combination elsewhere. As the Time article states, "If the user is in the United States, the body of water appeared as Gulf of America. If the user was physically in Mexico, it would appear as the Gulf of Mexico. In many other countries across the world it appears as ‘Gulf of Mexico (Gulf of America).’"

NOAA Restrictions and Concerns

Subject: Recent Restrictions Imposed on NOAA Scientists and Resulting Concerns

meteorology Matters details new restrictions imposed on scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) under the Trump administration, sparking considerable concern within the agency and among international partners. These restrictions include increased oversight of communications with foreign nationals, additional administrative burdens, and anticipated budget and staffing cuts. These measures are perceived as part of a broader effort to deprioritize climate crisis efforts and potentially privatize parts of NOAA. The changes raise alarms about the potential impact on weather forecasting accuracy, international scientific collaboration, and the availability of crucial climate data.

Key Themes and Ideas:

1. Increased Restrictions on International Communication and Collaboration:

• NOAA is implementing new oversight of scientists' email and "virtual meetings" with foreign nationals.
• All "international engagements" require documentation and approval by a Trump political appointee.
• One NOAA Research email stated staff now need to submit any "international engagement" for approval, including travel, face-to-face meetings or gatherings of international organizations. As for whether that includes emails with colleagues of different nationalities, the guidance said: “Not at this time.”
• The National Marine Fisheries Service has told staff to stop all contact with foreign nationals.
• These restrictions are seen as creating an "onerous" administrative burden, especially for the National Weather Service (NWS).

1. Concerns About a "Crackdown on Climate" and Politicization of Science:

• A senior NOAA scientist stated, "My expectation is that it’s going to be a crackdown on climate. People are just somewhere between disturbed and terrified."
• Fears stem from previous incidents of scientists being sidelined or muted during Trump's first term.
• Elon Musk’s “department of government efficiency” (Doge), placed the head of Noaa’s human resources team on administrative leave and initiated an agency-wide purge of activities related to diversity, equity and inclusion.

1. Budget and Staffing Cuts Looming:

• Employees have reportedly been told to expect a 50% reduction in staff and budget cuts of 30%.
• Project 2025 architect Russell Vought proposed a 38% budget cut for Noaa to “to curb excessive mission creep in key agencies, halt steadily increasing climate extremism within the department, and eliminate the prioritization of woke agendas”.
• "Hundreds" of NOAA staff have reportedly accepted federal buyouts.
• There are reported sweeping efforts to shrink the federal workforce with repeated requests for volunteers who want to resign.

1. Potential Impact on Weather Forecasting and Climate Science:

• The restrictions and cuts could "hamper the ability of the US to maintain a functioning public weather service."
• Reduced international collaboration could undermine the ability to "understand and combat" the climate crisis, according to a climate scientist at the EU's Copernicus agency. "The climate crisis knows no boundaries, and halting international scientific collaboration can only undermine our ability to understand and combat it.”