Nurturing Financial Freedom

著者： Ed Lambert and Alex Cabot Jon Gay
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  • This podcast is hosted by Ed Lambert and Alex Cabot, managing partners of Birch Run Financial and Financial Advisors with Raymond James Financial Services. Their mission is to help spread financial literacy. The majority of adults only know a fraction of what they should about personal finance. On this podcast, Ed and Alex will discuss both basic and advanced concepts on how to manage your money. Whether you are 22 or 62; an MBA or an engineer, you can learn something today. Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services offered through Raymond James Financial Services Advisors, Inc. Birch Run Financial is not a registered broker/dealer and is independent of Raymond James. Content represents the opinions of the speaker and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Important Disclosure Information: http://raymondjames.com/smicd.htm Birch Run Financial is located at 595 E Swedesford Rd, Ste 360, Wayne, PA 19087 and can be reached at 484.395.2190. The rating is not intended to be an endorsement, or any way indicative of the advisors abilities to provide investment advice or management. This podcast is intended for informational purposes only.
    2021-2024 Birch Run Financial
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あらすじ・解説

This podcast is hosted by Ed Lambert and Alex Cabot, managing partners of Birch Run Financial and Financial Advisors with Raymond James Financial Services. Their mission is to help spread financial literacy. The majority of adults only know a fraction of what they should about personal finance. On this podcast, Ed and Alex will discuss both basic and advanced concepts on how to manage your money. Whether you are 22 or 62; an MBA or an engineer, you can learn something today. Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services offered through Raymond James Financial Services Advisors, Inc. Birch Run Financial is not a registered broker/dealer and is independent of Raymond James. Content represents the opinions of the speaker and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Important Disclosure Information: http://raymondjames.com/smicd.htm Birch Run Financial is located at 595 E Swedesford Rd, Ste 360, Wayne, PA 19087 and can be reached at 484.395.2190. The rating is not intended to be an endorsement, or any way indicative of the advisors abilities to provide investment advice or management. This podcast is intended for informational purposes only.
2021-2024 Birch Run Financial
個人ファイナンス 経済学
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  • US Government Debt and Deficits Explained

    US Government Debt and Deficits Explained
    2025/02/27
    After sending congratulations to the Super Bowl champion Eagles, today we dive into a dense and important topic: the U.S. federal debt. There's a lot of fear and misinformation around this issue, so we break down what the numbers really mean and how they compare to history.Alex kicks things off by clarifying key terms. A deficit occurs when the government spends more than it brings in during a given year. The debt is the accumulation of all past deficits, minus any surpluses. The U.S. has run a deficit in 46 of the last 50 years, meaning it consistently spends more than it collects in revenue. To cover these shortfalls, the government borrows money by selling treasury securities to investors, institutions, and foreign governments. The debt’s significance is often measured against the country’s total economic output—its debt-to-GDP ratio—which has averaged about 64% since 1939 but has spiked dramatically at key moments in history.We’ve seen two major surges in debt-to-GDP: during World War II, when it reached 120%, and during COVID-19, when emergency spending pushed it to 125%. While this ratio has come down slightly since the pandemic, it remains historically high. Similarly, the deficit-to-GDP ratio, which measures the size of the annual shortfall relative to economic output, has averaged 3.4% over time but ballooned to around 6.4% in recent years.Ed walks us through the current numbers. As of 2025, the U.S. total debt stands at $36.2 trillion, with about $28.9 trillion held by the public and $7.3 trillion held by government programs like Social Security. Given that GDP is around $29 trillion, our debt-to-GDP ratio sits at 120%, nearly double its long-term average. The U.S. ran a $1.8 trillion deficit in 2024 and is on track for a similar shortfall in 2025. Experts believe a sustainable deficit level should be closer to 3% of GDP, meaning we’d need to close a $1 trillion annual gap through tax increases, spending cuts, or a mix of both.A common concern we address is the idea that foreign nations “own” the U.S. through debt holdings. In reality, only about 23% of U.S. debt is held by foreign countries, with Japan and China being the largest holders. However, they invest in U.S. debt not to control us but because U.S. treasuries are among the safest assets in the world.So, should we be panicking? Not necessarily. As Ed reminds us, people have been warning about a debt crisis for decades. Ross Perot famously made it a central issue of his 1992 presidential campaign when the debt was just $4 trillion. And yes, we may have detoured for a moment into Ross Perot and "Dana Carvey doing Ross Perot" impressions.Today’s debt and deficit numbers are bigger, but so is the U.S. economy. While the current trajectory isn’t sustainable forever, it’s not an immediate crisis either—more of an issue that will need to be addressed over time.If you’re wondering how these macroeconomic trends impact your personal financial planning, feel free to reach out. Visit Birch Run Financial, email info@birchrunfinancial.com, or call 484-395-2190. You can always email Alex and Ed at info@birchrunfinancial.com or give them a call at 484-395-2190.Or visit them on the web at https://www.birchrunfinancial.com/Alex and Ed's Book: Mastering The Money Mind: https://www.amazon.com/Mastering-Money-Mind-Thinking-Personal/dp/1544530536 Any opinions are those of Ed Lambert Alex Cabot, and Jon Gay and not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James. The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. There is no assurance any of the trends mentioned will continue or forecasts will occur. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. The examples throughout this material are for illustrative purposes only. Raymond James does not provide tax or legal services. Please discuss these matters with the appropriate professional. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. CDs are insured by the FDIC and offer a fixed rate of return, whereas the return and principal value of investment securities fluctuate with changes in market conditions. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. Stock Market. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. This information is not intended as a solicitation or an ...
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    24 分
  • 2024 Wrap Up and 2025 Predictions

    2024 Wrap Up and 2025 Predictions
    2025/01/29
    In this episode of Nurturing Financial Freedom, we kick off 2025 by discussing the economic highlights of 2024 and what lies ahead for the U.S. economy and markets. Ed provides an economic overview, while Alex dives into financial market performance and predictions.2024 saw significant progress in inflation reduction, with CPI falling from its 2022 peak of 9.1% to 2.8% by late 2024. While the Fed’s soft landing approach avoided recession and brought inflation closer to its 2% target, uncertainties like potential tariffs remain. GDP growth for 2024 ended on a strong note at 2.7%, and economists project continued growth in 2025, with estimates ranging from 2.1% to 2.4%. The labor market, though slightly looser than in previous years, remains robust, with unemployment at 4.1%, still below historical averages.Interest rates, which peaked at 5.25% in mid-2023, were reduced incrementally to 4.25% by the end of 2024. While the Fed is not expected to cut rates further in early 2025, analysts predict additional rate reductions later this year, potentially lowering rates to around 3.25% by year-end.Turning to the markets, 2024 was a stellar year for U.S. equities, driven largely by the “Magnificent Seven” tech giants. The S&P 500 delivered an impressive 25% return, although most of this growth came from a small number of dominant stocks. In contrast, value stocks underperformed, returning 12.3%, while international stocks lagged with a modest 4.4% return. Other asset classes, including small and mid-cap stocks, bonds, and real estate, showed moderate gains. Gold, interestingly, mirrored the stock market’s strong performance, rising by 25.5%.Looking ahead to 2025, major banks predict modest market growth, with the S&P 500 expected to yield returns of approximately 10%-12%. But despite a number of predictions - they are just that: predictions. And Alex shares what he and the team think about these predictions. They are speculative, and market behavior is inherently unpredictable. The key takeaway is to remain diversified, stick to a long-term financial plan, and avoid reactionary decisions based on short-term market volatility.As always, staying prepared for market uncertainty while maintaining a balanced, goals-based strategy is critical for long-term success. You can always email Alex and Ed at info@birchrunfinancial.com or give them a call at 484-395-2190.Or visit them on the web at https://www.birchrunfinancial.com/Alex and Ed's Book: Mastering The Money Mind: https://www.amazon.com/Mastering-Money-Mind-Thinking-Personal/dp/1544530536 Any opinions are those of Ed Lambert Alex Cabot, and Jon Gay and not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James. The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. There is no assurance any of the trends mentioned will continue or forecasts will occur. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. The examples throughout this material are for illustrative purposes only. Raymond James does not provide tax or legal services. Please discuss these matters with the appropriate professional. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. CDs are insured by the FDIC and offer a fixed rate of return, whereas the return and principal value of investment securities fluctuate with changes in market conditions. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. Stock Market. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. This information is not intended as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security referred to herein. Future investment performance cannot be guaranteed, investment yields will fluctuate with market conditions. International investing involves special risks, including currency fluctuations, differing financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic volatility. There is an inverse relationship between interest rate movements and bond prices. Generally, when interest rates rise, bond prices fall and when interest rates fall, bond prices generally rise. Investing in small cap stocks generally involves greater risks, and therefore, may not be appropriate for every investor. The prices of small company stocks may be subject to more volatility than those of large company stocks. Securities offered through Raymond James ...
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    28 分
  • Tariffs Explained: The Good And The Bad

    Tariffs Explained: The Good And The Bad
    2024/12/23
    In this episode of Nurturing Financial Freedom, we delve into the timely topic of tariffs, their economic implications, and their resurgence in U.S. policy under President Trump’s leadership. Alex Cabot and Ed Lambert of Birch Run Financial provide a clear breakdown of what tariffs are, who pays them, and their pros and cons.We begin by defining tariffs as taxes imposed on imported or exported goods. Alex clarifies a common misconception: while tariffs aim to promote domestic industries by making imported goods more expensive, it is the U.S. importer—not foreign governments or exporters—who pays these taxes. Importers often pass these costs on to consumers, leading to higher prices, though in some cases, businesses absorb the costs, reducing their margins.Tariffs have several objectives. They protect domestic industries by encouraging consumers to buy locally, generate government revenue, address trade imbalances, and promote national security. They can also support emerging industries and serve as negotiating tools in trade disputes. For instance, the current administration appears to be using tariffs as leverage in international trade negotiations, particularly with Mexico and China.Ed expands on the downsides of tariffs, including their potential to trigger trade wars, where reciprocal tariffs harm businesses and consumers on both sides. Tariffs can also disrupt global supply chains, drive inflation, and reduce economic efficiency. For example, industries reliant on imported materials may face squeezed profit margins or pass costs onto consumers, further exacerbating financial strain. Additionally, widespread tariffs can slow global economic growth by undermining the interconnectedness of modern economies.The discussion concludes with a balanced perspective. While tariffs can be a useful tool to protect strategic industries or as a negotiation tactic, blanket tariffs across all trading partners are generally counterproductive. Thoughtful implementation is critical to avoid unintended consequences.Alex and Ed emphasize their commitment to breaking down complex topics for listeners, encouraging questions, and offering consultations. For more insights, they invite listeners to connect via their website, email, or social media. You can always email Alex and Ed at info@birchrunfinancial.com or give them a call at 484-395-2190.Or visit them on the web at https://www.birchrunfinancial.com/Alex and Ed's Book: Mastering The Money Mind: https://www.amazon.com/Mastering-Money-Mind-Thinking-Personal/dp/1544530536 Any opinions are those of Ed Lambert Alex Cabot, and Jon Gay and not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James. The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. There is no assurance any of the trends mentioned will continue or forecasts will occur. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. The examples throughout this material are for illustrative purposes only. Raymond James does not provide tax or legal services. Please discuss these matters with the appropriate professional. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. CDs are insured by the FDIC and offer a fixed rate of return, whereas the return and principal value of investment securities fluctuate with changes in market conditions. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. Stock Market. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. This information is not intended as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security referred to herein. Future investment performance cannot be guaranteed, investment yields will fluctuate with market conditions. International investing involves special risks, including currency fluctuations, differing financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic volatility. There is an inverse relationship between interest rate movements and bond prices. Generally, when interest rates rise, bond prices fall and when interest rates fall, bond prices generally rise. Investing in small cap stocks generally involves greater risks, and therefore, may not be appropriate for every investor. The prices of small company stocks may be subject to more volatility than those of large company stocks. Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. Member ...
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    19 分

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