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This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup:

The deep dive looks at a couple more reports - The Home Builders’ Federation Q4 pipeline report, and UK Finance’s report on Household Finances from Q4, both published this week.

We also have, in the Macro section:

The Halifax House Price Index

The Bank of England Money and Credit Report - with something to watch out for and be aware of

The final PMIs for February

The gilts and swaps - bringing up the rear as always, with some extra commentary around what the Bank of England committee members have been doing and saying this week

And in the deep dive......

The Home Builders Federation have the most marginal piece of good news - but planning permission is, of course, only the first piece of the jigsaw.

UK Finance is similarly somewhat positive - but, the story is the same really. We are coming back from a tough position in general….2023 was a tough old year and 2024 was a year of relatively slow repair, basically!

What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On throughout 2025 - we SPRING towards the stamp duty deadline and the reintroduction of the 2% band - we need to Keep Calm and Carry On. 3 weeks until the Spring Statement!

Enjoy

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This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup:

The deep dive looks at a couple more reports - Zoopla’s efforts for the month which get into flats and houses, and the differences - and I attempt to add some depth, and then a great report from the Nationwide Foundation about the Private Rental Sector - the best I’ve read, bar none.

We also have, in the Macro section:

The Nationwide House Price Index

Confidence - and the return of it, or a couple of green shoots anyway

The ONS Private Rents and House Prices report

The gilts and swaps - bringing up the rear as always, with reasonable news.

And in the deep dive......

Zoopla’s report on pricing for January that was released in February contains some revelations about the price of flats and how much cheaper they are than houses. We are heading to a world where a house is twice the price of a flat. However - I ask the questions to take it to the next level of detail - are flats much less attractive, comparatively, than they were? As investment propositions, I primarily mean……before you even start on cladding, fire, rocketing service charges…….you get the picture.

Then the Nationwide Foundation, and their report on “Systemic change” in the PRS - this report asks so many important questions, and whilst I critique with the red pen as usual, I’m full of praise for those even asking these questions. Real progress from an organisation without an agenda, that’s well funded - heartwarming to say the least.

What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On throughout 2025 - we SPRING towards the stamp duty deadline and the reintroduction of the 2% band - we need to Keep Calm and Carry On (and for our conveyancers to get on with it, if we are buying anything right now!)

Enjoy

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This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup:

The deep dive looks at a couple of reports that have been on my hit list for some time. One from the centre, and one from left of centre - firstly, the hotel of mum and dad; then the positive changes in housing circumstances for young people in Britain over the past decade (and my idea of irony on that subject).

We also have, in the Macro section, in “mega week”:

The ONS Labour Market Report

INFLATION - and just how “Back” it is.

The flash PMIs, of course……

The gilts and swaps - a week that really could have been worse.

And in the deep dive......

The Institute for Fiscal Studies report entitled “Hotel of Mum and Dad” released last month looks specifically at the area of those aged 25-34 “co-living” with Mum and Dad, and how it varies, how it has changed in recent years, and some of the drivers of the changes. I get stuck into it.

Then the Resolution Foundation, whilst really wanting to write an article about just how hard the younger working families on middle and low incomes have got it, found themselves forced to conclude that the past decade has meant steps forward, rather than steps backward, for this group of the population. I get stuck into that too!

What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On throughout 2025 - job worries, inflation wobbles, a cratering manufacturing sector and Andrew Bailey’s warnings of weak growth - we need to Keep Calm and Carry On

Enjoy

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This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup:

The deep dive goes back in for a second bite of the cherry on the Bank of England Monetary Policy report that accompanied the meeting the week before; plus the invaluable insight that I get directly from the regional rep of the Bank at the Quarterly briefings. He speaks to the committee directly - and let’s face it, that’s as close as I’m getting at any point in the near future.

We also have, in the Macro section:

The RICS Residential Market Survey

The ONS full report on Growth and the “upside miss” - party time?

A bonus productivity report on the public sector and specifically healthcare and…….

The gilts and swaps - a week that really could have been worse.

And in the deep dive......

The Bank of England changed a whole number of forecasts compared to where they were 3 months before. It was an eventful quarter. I’m not convinced they’d done their budget homework before they released their November report - but what are these adjustments, and what do they mean for interest rates, and the property market in general? There’s detail - real detail - you have been warned!

What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On throughout 2025 - We will get there, responsibly, even with a bit more inflation, slightly higher rates than many were promising, and of course the ever-changing legislative landscape that seeks to frighten everyone that little bit more each week……..

Enjoy

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This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup:

The deep dive has no choice - there’s the most fundamental switch in approach from one of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee members that there has been in - a LONG time - and it needs discussion at an appropriate level. Does it mean that interest rates are dropping faster than some misery guts - Propenomix included - have been saying?

We also have, in the Macro section:

The Halifax House Price Index

The PMIs - my darlings of the real time economy

The BBA mortgage rate

The gilts and swaps - a week for the scrapbook.

And in the deep dive......

Rachel seemed to get buried again this week as the rhetoric all swung to what loyal readers and listeners to the Supplement already knew - as I’ve been screaming - these incredibly positive growth forecasts need to come DOWN. She was naive to claim that little victory last week when the IMF upgraded the UK growth forecast from 1.7% to 1.8% as the Bank of England DOWNgraded it massively in their most recent forecast (interestingly, to exactly where I predicted it would be around 2 months ago). But does the whole story add up? Does my version of it all add up? I run the ruler over it, in detail, on the back of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Report - a quarterly event, which led to a 0.25% cut in the Base Rate on Thursday.

What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On throughout 2025 - We will get there, responsibly, even if we have to cope with the slings and arrows of outrageous policy, productivity and growth numbers!

Enjoy

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This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup:

The deep dive goes long - Rachel Reeves is going “Further and Faster” - no, not out the door of Number 11 as some have been hoping - but for GROWTH

We also have, in the Macro section:

The Nationwide House Price Index (and affordability report) - in detail

The Bank of England Money and Credit Report - with implications

The ONS real-time report on Economic Activity and Social Change in the UK - and how we are stacking up compared to 5+ years ago

The gilts and swaps - an orderly and directionally sweet week.

And in the deep dive......

Rachel Reeves Resurrection, Rallying Cry, Roar, Respite from Negativity - call it what you will. Crumbs for the North and Midlands, and Gold for the South? No wonder they dropped the levelling up chat, eh? But no - apparently you can build runways and gigantic developments in the countryside but it all be congruent with net zero?

That seems like a big lie, to be honest - BUT, however they are going to navigate that bit, these moves are absolutely in the right direction. Make no mistake. Reeves 2.0 looks a vast improvement (yes, from a low bar of a start). Expect Rachel to no longer look like she’s been dug up when you see her in the media - she’s in the ascendancy now, but now we will find out what mettle (and ability) lies behind the padded CV and the rhetoric. Spring looks BIG.

What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On throughout 2025 - We will get there, regardless of the best or worst efforts of the current Government!

Enjoy

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This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup:

The deep dive goes for the trifecta this week - an interesting but strange Hamptons report about the rental market - a fascinating piece about a Community Rent Model - and some musings on the “big debate” I was involved in this week.

We also have, in the Macro section:

(Un)employment - that week of the month. Weak?

Confidence (or more accurately, lack thereof)

The flash PMIs - my favourite real time indicator of economic health (or sickness)

The gilts and swaps - a relatively idyllic week

And in the deep dive......

Hamptons make sense of the English Housing Survey data alongside their own, particularly around the percentage of rent paid by people of a certain age. They also examine the effect of the withdrawal of the Help-to-Buy scheme

The work and brainchild of a Labour councillor who did incredible work in Social Housing starts, but seems to have an answer that needs MUCH more airtime than it has received thus far. Hence the Supplement!

My reflections on the debate I had this week with Samuel Leeds, property training business owner. This premieres after the Supplement goes to print and air, so there are no spoilers, don’t worry - you’ll have to watch it for that!

What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On throughout 2025 - We will get there, regardless of the best or worst efforts of the current Government!

Enjoy

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This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup:

The deep dive goes into the low and high pay report from the ONS - with some unreported but eye-opening headlines - and also takes a look at the 6-monthly ONS migration report in a significant level of detail

We also have, in the Macro section:

Inflation - you know it - and downside misses on forecasts

Growth, Growth, Growth - and the microscopes needed to find it

The ONS Private Rents and House Prices report, always illuminating

The gilts and swaps - and why last week’s advice not to panic has played out well, and will continue to do so in my view - with some bonus content here too

And in the deep dive......

The ONS keeps on delivering interesting reports and I keep ploughing through them. How many people are now low paid in the UK as a percentage, using the official OECD definition? It looks great - why have we not been shouting about it from the rooftops? What about the high-paid - have we created those high-pay, high-skill jobs that were promised some time back by the guy with the hair?

Then - migration - the most comprehensive look I’ve ever taken at this subject that defines the shape of the rental market in the UK for many years to come. Hopefully I’ve answered some questions that you might have been asking, and some you might not realise that you wanted to ask, but are interested in

What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On throughout 2025 - Rachel, you had a good week, keep driving those yields down - pretty please?

Enjoy

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