In this week’s Resonance energy market podcast episode, Jeremy Nicholson talks to Alfa’s Dan Veasey as we see extreme heat in Southern Europe.

Topics explored include:

• Not much response in pricing to extreme heat, although there is some reduced capacity of the French nuclear fleet.
• Demand has increased in southern Europe, but there is significant renewables generation to counter that right across Europe.
• The variability of renewables and the impact on the management of grid.
• Norwegian gas production increases following the return of a major processing plant. Further maintenance lies ahead next month.
• LNG drops, but meets demand and storage is expected to be at capacity going into winter.
• However, any significant cold snap or supply disruption still presents a real risk for both winter and next summer, especially with LNG demand in Asia picking up.
• The threat to remaining Russian gas supplies.

Listen to the latest episode of the Resonance podcast. This episode was recorded on 18th July 2023.

In this week’s Resonance energy market podcast episode, Jeremy Nicholson talks to Alfa’s Henry Homer as we return to equilibrium, but the fragile balance of supply and demand is causing challenges across Europe.

Topics explored include:

We return to equilibrium, but hydro and nuclear capacity remain a risk.

• Renewables have improved and softened markets, but being intermittent present a challenge to stability without the appropriate storage technology to better manage grid supply.
• Demand destruction is coming to the fore, with natural gas demand in May 23 25% down on average across EU member states, compared with the average for May between 2019-21.
• What does the new European normal look like?
• What would a difficult scenario mean for prices in Q4 2023?

Listen to the latest episode of the Resonance podcast. This episode was recorded on 7th July 2023.

In this week’s Resonance energy market podcast episode, Jeremy Nicholson talks to Alfa’s Dan Veasey discuss the market implications of Europe reaching full storage capacity by the end of summer, as well as the potential impact of unexpectedly mild weather.

Topics explored include:

• Short term spike on mutiny news, but no fundamental changes to gas flows from Russia.
• Intra-day volatility has returned somewhat, driven by supply constraints. E.g. Extension of maintenance at a gas processing facility in Norway; expected to be resolved in July. We’re not back to end of June price lows, but far from way off highs at time extension was announced.
• Gas storage good in Europe – stores 76% full
• Inflation and high interest rates may have a marginal impact on forward pricing due to less demand for commodities
• Coal generation still on track to be phased out, despite requirement for baseload power
• Concerns about renewable energy supply chain, as with rest of energy sector, new wind perhaps more expressive than expected and CODs not attractive enough to drive new generation development. Skills gap may also need to be filled.
• The Dutch government has confirmed that the Groningen gas field will close in October, mainly due to earthquake issues in the area.
• It is expected that US LNG cargoes will increase over the next few months, which will help boost storage.
• With storage close to capacity, if we don't see an increase in demand going into September and the weather is milder than expected, the markets will adjust to encourage demand or reduce production. However, further unplanned outages, extreme hot weather, and nuclear outages in France could of course affect this situation.

This episode of the Resonance was recorded on 27th June 2023.