The Buffalo Bills (7-2) have won their last four games to take a four-game lead in the AFC East, but if they want to run their streak to five, the Bills must defeat a scrappy and resilient Indianapolis Colts (4-5) squad, with a depleted wide receiver room and in a place where Buffalo hasn’t won since 1998. This week on the Billieve podcast, host John Boccacino gets you ready for Sunday’s game, which is a sneaky tough road game against a Colts squad that is the first team in NFL history to have played all one-possession games through Week 9. The Bills are 21st in the NFL in sack percentage, 23rd in pressure percentage, tied for 25th in yards allowed per rush, and tied for 26th in most rushes of at least 10 yards allowed. We know the Bills won’t blitz much, so the front four has to get home because while Colts QB Joe Flacco may be a statue in the pocket, if he has time, he can still pick a defense apart. With four-time Pro Bowl center Ryan Kelly on injured reserve, two rookies, C Tanor Bortolini and undrafted free agent RG Dalton Tucker, will start up front. This would be the time for DaQuan Jones and Ed Oliver to terrorize the rookies with pressure up the middle. Led by RB Jonathan Taylor and guard Quenton Nelson, the Colts like to run the ball and the Bills struggled to stop the run in their win over the Dolphins. Taylor is averaging 4.8 yards per attempt and 83.7 yards per game and has also averaged 10 yards per catch as a receiver. Buffalo’s safety duo of Taylor Rapp and Damar Hamlin will be tested against a Colts team that can and will hit the deep ball. The primary deep weapon is Alec Pierce, who has the highest yards-per-catch average in the NFL (22.9). Josh Downs is an up-and-coming possession receiver out of the slot who leads the Colts with 38 catches and 22 first downs, and even if true WR1 Michael Pittman is sidelined, Pierce, Downs, Adonai Mitchell, Mo Allie-Cox and Taylor are formidable receiving options. Look for nickel cornerback Taron Johnson to step up and have a big game against Downs and in coverage against Taylor. The Bills are at their best when Josh Allen takes what the defense gives him, which should be the case on Sunday. If the Colts play zone to protect against deep shots, Allen should thrive with ample opportunities available underneath to Khalil Shakir, Dalton Kincaid, Curtis Samuel, James Cook, and Ray Davis. LB Zaire Franklin leads the NFL in tackles (95), but he's also a liability in pass coverage as he has allowed 32 completions on 37 passes (86.5%) for 294 yards this year. Allen relied on Cook and Davis in the passing game last week, and I expect more of the same vs. the Colts. With the Bills short-handed at WR, look for Buffalo to run plenty of 12 personnel (one back and two tight ends), with Kincaid potentially enjoying a breakout performance. Buffalo should also be able to run the ball on an Indy defense that is allowing nearly 150 rushing yards, 31st in the NFL. The Colts like to alternate between base and nickel, and CB Kenny Moore is their best cover man. OC Joe Brady would be wise to attack outside when Moore is in the slot and utilize Shakir and Kincaid over the middle when Moore is on the boundary. Indy’s defensive line is led by DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart, who will challenge LG David Edwards, C Connor McGovern, and RG O’Cyrus Torrence. That trio needs to provide a clean pocket to allow Allen to find his open receivers. I close by offering up score predictions as the Bills look to remain undefeated at home in 2024. Get involved with our show on Twitter (@JohnBoccacino) and be sure to follow the Rumblings Network and Buffalo Rumblings on Twitter, too. The new Rumblings Cast boasts a talented lineup, including Billieve, The Bruce Exclusive, In The Trenches, The Chop Up, The Code of Conduct, Leading the Charge, and Jamie D & Big Newt. You can also enjoy new shows like Unplugged with Sara Larson and The Crew.
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