On the podcast, I talk with Dan about estimating the ROI of product changes before building them, calculating your subscription app's growth ceiling, and why you shouldn’t make assumptions about what is and isn’t working in other apps.

Top Takeaways:

💸 ROI-first thinking helps teams prioritize what actually moves the needle
Every project has a cost - whether or not you calculate it. Estimating the ROI of a sprint, even with rough assumptions, can reveal when you’re investing $50K of dev time into a feature with minimal upside. It’s not about forecasting with precision, it’s about using basic math to avoid chasing ideas that won’t pay off.

⚾ Big swings take more than one try
Launching a major feature is rarely a one-and-done success. The biggest wins often come after multiple iterations - refining the UX, testing variations, learning from early data. Too many teams ship once and move on. But if there are signs of life, sticking with it for a few rounds is often where the real gains are made.

⏳ Churn math reveals the ceiling on your growth
If you’re adding 500 users per month and churn is 10%, your max subscriber base is 5,000. It’s simple math, but easy to overlook when topline numbers are growing. Looking at cohorts and long-term retention curves helps you spot when you’re approaching that ceiling - and whether you’re building a durable business or just replacing churned users.

🧵 Small UX improvements can beat big features
Rewriting confusing checkout error messages took just two days and lifted revenue by 1%. Polishing key flows like onboarding or paywall views often delivers a better return than shipping something new. If every user hits a flow, making it smoother can have an outsized impact on conversion and retention.

🚀 The fastest team wins, not the most secretive
Worried someone will copy your idea? Don’t be. The teams that win are the ones who move faster, not the ones who keep ideas hidden. Speed matters more than secrecy. Whether you’re validating a viral feature with TikTok mockups or running a rough A/B test, moving quickly lets you learn, adjust, and stay ahead.

About Dan Layfield:

✍️ Founder of Subscription Index, a blog that breaks down the strategy, math, and real-world lessons behind successful subscription products.

🧠 Dan helps startups grow revenue by optimizing retention, reducing churn, and making smarter product bets rooted in ROI.

💡 “Your company will not be profitable ever if the output of your sprints doesn’t exceed the cost of your sprints.”

👋 LinkedIn

Resources:

The Hidden Math of Churn: Why You Can’t Scale Past $1M — Subscription Index blog post

Follow us on X:

• David Barnard - @drbarnard
• Jacob Eiting - @jeiting
• RevenueCat - @RevenueCat
• SubClub - @SubClubHQ

Episode Highlights:

[1:03] Over/under — The importance of estimating the ROI of your product development efforts in advance.

[6:39] Making a splash: The pros and cons of building features in order to get attention on social media or in the press.

[12:49] Sweat the small stuff: Why fixing “small” issues with your user experience can lead to big payoffs.

[19:41] Hitting a ceiling: How to calculate your company’s maximum subscriber base based on your monthly new users and churn rate.

[24:03] The long game: Accounting for long-term users (“locals”) versus short-term users (“tourists”) in your growth ceiling estimates.

[32:11] Good use: How the degree of product-market fit for your app affects your churn rate.

[37:40] User activation: Mitigating churn by providing a great onboarding experience and giving users early wins.

[39:21] Money talks: Why auditing your pricing tiers and payment processing systems can significantly bolster your bottom line.

On the podcast, I talk with Ajay about the fresh opportunities AI is creating for app developers, how they built a cost-effective TikTok growth engine, and why being forced to monetize helped improve their product decisions.

Top Takeaways:
🤖 New tech, new apps – AI isn’t just making apps smarter. It’s enabling new categories entirely.
Apps built around real-time interaction, emotional context, and personalized content wouldn’t have been possible just a year ago. That means product-market fit can emerge in spaces that didn’t even exist before.

🎨 Design spreads – Great visuals are for distribution, not just decoration.
Memorable characters, animations, or interfaces can make your app instantly recognizable in screenshots, social videos, or App Store listings. Strong creative amplifies word-of-mouth.

💸 Monetization pushes clarity – Charging early forces your product to stand up on its own.
When you’re paying for AI infrastructure, you can’t wait to figure out value. Monetizing quickly reveals which users are getting enough utility to stick around and where the gaps are in your experience.

📈 TikTok still works – For the right product, UGC beats polish.
Test fast, post often, and watch what takes off. Lo-fi creator content can outperform paid campaigns, especially if your app is visual and easy to explain. One viral post can change your growth curve overnight.

🧠 Voice AI is tough to fake – Real conversation needs more than an API call.
Delivering a fast, natural back-and-forth requires layered systems: memory lookup, tone control, real-time rendering, and low-latency streaming. It’s a technical challenge and a competitive moat.

About Ajay Mehta:

👽 Co-Founder of Portola, the creators of Tolan—an AI companion app that offers personalized, engaging, and fun experiences.

📈 Ajay is passionate about AI’s potential to revolutionize consumer apps, focusing on building emotionally resonant, interactive experiences.

💡 “Something that AI really allows you to do is make a consumer experience that just feels like there is totally something on the other side that knows you, understands you.”

👋 LinkedIn and Twitter

Follow us on X:

• David Barnard - @drbarnard
• Jacob Eiting - @jeiting
• RevenueCat - @RevenueCat
• SubClub - @SubClubHQ

Episode Highlights:

[1:10] Origin story: How Ajay and the Portola team developed the AI alien buddy app, Tolan.

[7:38] Cash flow: Why the Tolan team secured venture funding instead of bootstrapping.
[11:36] I, Robot: How AI is changing the app landscape and why AI companion apps are especially promising.
[16:36] Cost/Benefit: The costs associated with running an AI app forced Tolan to monetize early (but that wasn’t a bad thing).
[21:17] Onboarding excellence: How Tolan’s onboarding experience fosters deep personalization and long-term retention.
[28:08] Going viral: Why an effective TikTok marketing strategy can dramatically lower your cost per acquisition.
[39:34] A league of their own: Why competition is relatively low (for now) for AI companion apps.
[47:39] Race to the top: Raising venture capital and using the upfront cash infusion to iterate and beat out the competition (à la Duolingo).
[51:18] Tolan 2 (The Sequel): AI engines have the potential to be spun off into multiple app businesses.

On the podcast we discuss how AI is changing both what apps do and how they’re built, the relationship between price and retention, and why React Native apps monetize better than native.

Check out RevenueCat’s State of Subscription Apps 2025 report here: https://revenuecat.com/report

Top Takeaways:

📊 AI apps: Higher revenue per user, but differentiation is key

AI-powered apps don’t convert users at a higher rate, but they earn more per subscriber. People are willing to pay for AI-enhanced features, but success depends on offering real value - simply wrapping a chatbot isn’t enough. The best-performing AI apps focus on unique, high-value use cases.

💰 Hybrid monetization is gaining momentum

More apps are mixing revenue models—offering subscriptions, consumables, and lifetime purchases to appeal to different types of buyers. AI-powered apps, in particular, are finding success with credit-based systems that let heavy users pay more without forcing everyone onto a subscription.

⚡ Most subscription churn happens in the first month—act fast

A huge percentage of cancellations happen right after the first charge. Users need to feel the value of your app immediately, or they’ll turn off auto-renew. Strong onboarding, personalized engagement, and proactive retention strategies make all the difference.

⏳ 80% of trial starts happen on day one - don’t bury your paywall

Users decide quickly. The vast majority of free trials begin the first time someone opens the app, and if they don’t start one then, they likely never will. A clear, compelling paywall in onboarding is essential to maximizing conversions.

📉 Lower prices mean higher retention

Apps with lower subscription prices retain users at significantly higher rates. High-ticket subscriptions can work if the value is obvious, but in many cases, a lower price makes the renewal decision much easier. If churn is a problem, pricing strategy should be one of the first things to review.

About Jacob Eiting:

👨‍💻 Founder & CEO of RevenueCat, the platform powering in-app subscriptions for thousands of apps.

🎯 Jacob helps app developers navigate pricing, retention, and monetization strategies to build sustainable businesses.

💡 “If your differentiation is community, if your differentiation is distribution, like you have some unique angle, you’re serving a niche, and you want to be on both platforms, React is probably a really good place to start today.”

👋 LinkedIn

Follow us on X:

• David Barnard - @drbarnard
• Jacob Eiting - @jeiting
• RevenueCat - @RevenueCat
• SubClub - @SubClubHQ

Episode Highlights:

[1:10] The power of AI: AI apps don’t convert users at a higher rate, but they do generate more revenue per user.
[12:28] Battle of the app stores: The App Store generates more money than the Play Store because there are more iOS users (not because Android users pay less).

[18:20] Hybrid vs native: A wider range of development frameworks is lowering the barrier to entry for app developers.

[24:12] Downward slide: Retention rates are declining year over year (but that’s to be expected).

[26:51] Failure to launch?: One out of every 20 apps makes more than $9,000/month one year after launching.

[34:37] Diversifying revenue: More apps are experimenting with hybrid monetization strategies, combining monthly subscriptions with consumables and lifetime subscriptions.

[39:53] Press start: 80% of free trials start the day users first open the app.

[42:13] End of the line: Cancellations of annual subscriptions happen most commonly in the first and last month.

[45:12] The price isn’t right: Lower-priced apps retain users better than higher-priced apps.

[54:20] Last touch: Active renewal rates are highest for annual subscriptions and lowest for weekly subscriptions.