Is the 2025 Housing Market the Next 2008?

Could history be repeating itself? On this episode of The Den, the Lyons Group, Paul, Ben, Aspen, and Shannon, tackle one of the most pressing questions in real estate today: Is 2025 shaping up to be another 2008-style crash? They explore national trends, local impact, and the key differences between then and now. From interest rates to inventory shortages, this episode is packed with real talk, sharp insights, and personal experience from boots-on-the-ground realtors who’ve seen it all. If you’re buying, selling, or just trying to make sense of the market, this one’s for you.

KEY TAKEAWAYS
• 2025 home sales are nearly identical to 2008, despite 50 million more Americans
• Home prices have outpaced wages dramatically, pricing out many buyers
• Dual-income households still struggle to afford homes
• Inventory shortages and low interest mortgages are keeping people in place
• Distressed sales have dropped from 45% in 2008 to just 1% in 2025
• Average days on market has dropped from 120 in 2008 to 62 now
• Lending practices are far stricter today thanks to post-crash reforms
• Builders lack incentive to create affordable housing without tax credits
• The Fed lowering rates doesn’t directly affect mortgage rates
• Real estate movement has slowed due to lack of financial flexibility

BEST MOMENTS
00:00:08. “There's been a lot of similarities drawn. A lot of people saying that there's a big crash that's coming up.”
00:02:14. “Back in 2008, there were 4.1 million homes sold. In 2025, 4.08 million.”
00:03:01. “The 2008 crash was because of poor lending practices. Right now we have very elevated home prices and higher interest rates.”
00:04:06. “Twenty years ago, even somebody right out of college or high school could buy a house. That’s not the case now.”
00:05:27. “Now the average income is $80,000 and the average home is $350,000.”
00:08:07. “Why would you choose right now to trade up if you're at a 2 or 3% interest rate?”
00:10:00. “Short sales were just left and right. You had to understand them to navigate the market.”
00:14:06. “Average 30-year mortgage is 6.17% right now in America, nearly identical to 2008.”
00:17:02. “Average days on market now is 62. That’s 50% less than 2008.”
00:27:28. “We are not in the same market as we were in 2008. We've got a lot of good things on our horizon.”

Website: sjcbroker.com

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Why water is the silent threat to your home (and what to do about it)

Think you’re safe from water damage just because you live in the dry Southwest? Think again. In this episode of The Den, Paul, Ben, Shannon, and Aspen break down how water continues to be one of the biggest threats to homes, through roof leaks, plumbing issues, flash floods, improper grading, and even swamp coolers. With stories from real inspections and practical advice for buyers, sellers, and homeowners, this is a must-hear episode for anyone looking to protect their investment.

The Den is powered by The Lyons Group, and brings expert insights into real estate, entrepreneurship, and personal growth across the Four Corners region.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• Flooding in Pagosa Springs caused hot tubs to float downriver
• Mudslides and burn scars are major threats post-wildfire
• Flash floods in arroyos can swallow trucks in seconds
• Diverting natural arroyos can lead to serious property damage
• Poor grading is a top cause of water entering homes
• Gutters often drop water right at the foundation—bad design
• Snowmelt and rainwater need engineered drainage systems
• Crawlspaces reveal hidden plumbing leaks and foundation issues
• Evaporative coolers cause extensive roof damage if not maintained
• Listening for odd sounds can save you from major water disasters

BEST MOMENTS

00:01:52. “The river rose 20, 30 feet. It was crazy.”
00:03:08. “There were hot tubs floating down the river.”
00:04:12. “After the fires, you get a big rain. And the floods happen.”
00:05:08. “Flash floods are scary. It would swallow an entire vehicle.”
00:06:54. “Our land does not absorb the water as much.”
00:10:01. “Water diverting away from the house is probably the best thing you can do.”
00:14:07. “Clean out your gutters, because they get clogged with leaves and debris.”
00:17:08. “If you have an issue in your plumbing, get it looked at immediately.”
00:18:58. “If something sounds weird, that’s when you start looking into it.”
00:20:12. “I hear this dripping... we had water dripping into our gas log fireplace.”
00:21:23. “Water was just pouring out of our light socket.”
00:22:05. “That’s probably the thing we see the most, water damage from swamp coolers.”
00:23:59. “The water didn’t hurt the house, but it caused issues on the property.”
00:25:00. “It had rained so much, it finally just cleaned out the French drain.”
00:27:06. “French drains are usually a solid pipe filled with gravel that takes water away.”
00:28:14. “Don’t cross arroyos. Even with 4 to 6 inches of water, it can be dangerous.”
00:28:45. “Clean out your scuppers and your canals. Don’t end up like me, a crooked plumber.”

Website: sjcbroker.com

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Are you unknowingly risking your deal with owner finance?

In this episode of The Den, hosts Ben Lyons, Aspen Grown, Shannon Martinez, and Paul Barry dive into the top mistakes people make with owner financing. With hundreds of millions in sales and decades of real estate experience, the team breaks down real scenarios that could cost buyers and sellers big. Whether you're looking to finance creatively or just want to avoid the pitfalls, this episode is a masterclass in what not to do. Learn why title companies matter, how balloon payments should be structured, and what happens when taxes or insurance slip through the cracks.

Key Takeaways:
• Understand the difference between legal and equitable title
• Why closing through a title company protects both parties
• How federal tax liens can attach to your property
• What happens if a balloon payment can’t be met
• The dangers of a deficit closing and how to spot one
• Why verifying financial terms is crucial before signing
• Common misconceptions about rent-to-own vs owner finance
• How escrow protects buyers and sellers alike
• Strategies to protect against unpaid taxes and insurance
• The pros and cons of long-term amortization vs balloon structures

Best Moments:
00:00:06. “And today, we're gonna talk about top mistakes people make with owner finance.”
00:01:00. “You don't want to make mistakes in real estate, especially with owner finance.”
00:02:23. “If you do it right, it could be very advantageous for both sides.”
00:04:07. “You might be having to negotiate again or working on getting your property back.”
00:07:00. “I trusted information given to me by the seller without verifying it.”
00:10:18. “Title companies won’t close a deficit closing nowadays.”
00:13:00. “If it's not recorded, you have no legal right to that property.”
00:15:40. “You're probably going to have to qualify for both loans at the same time.”
00:20:15. “If you don't go through proper channels, you can be in big time trouble.”
00:27:03. “There's actually a lot more ownership and responsibility in it.”

Website: sjcbroker.com

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Ever had a creepy feeling during a showing? You're not alone.

This special Halloween edition of The Den, powered by the Lyons Group, dives into real-life horror stories from the world of real estate. Hosts Ben Lyons, Shannon Martinez, Paul Barry, and Aspen Groen share spine-chilling experiences that happened during open houses, client showings, and vacant home visits. Whether it's creepy crawlspaces, haunted homes, or people who just gave off the wrong vibe, these are the stories you won’t forget.

Get ready for laughs, goosebumps, and some serious reminders about realtor safety. If you’ve ever set foot in a listing, this one’s for you.

KEY TAKEAWAYS
• The most unsettling moment Shannon ever had during an open house
• What crawlspaces reveal about safety risks in real estate
• Paul’s ghostly family history and why he’s scared of basements
• Aspen’s Denver story involving hoarders, creepy beds, and a very dark cellar
• Why painted eyes on blinds are a serious red flag
• Realtor instincts and the importance of trusting your gut
• How Whitney’s energy reading confirmed a haunting
• A high-end showing gone dangerously wrong
• Why buddying up for remote property visits could save your life
• Tech and safety tips for modern real estate professionals

BEST MOMENTS
00:00:36. “Today is our Halloween version of real estate. And we're gonna talk about some scary stories.”
00:02:34. “And I whipped around really fast... there's a guy who's like, literally this close right behind me.”
00:03:47. “He said, I have some questions about some things I found in the crawl space.”
00:05:07. “You going to murder me down there?”
00:10:34. “I'm afraid of the dark.”
00:14:22. “We walk into this one room... it has a medical bed just like, there.”
00:19:26. “On the blinds were painted eyes. Huge painted eyes.”
00:21:25. “There’s just people... like, I always see people standing in the kitchen.”
00:24:06. “She turned around and ran out the front door... he was beating on the window.”
00:27:05. “They don’t see anything in the house other than a tripod and a camera set on top of it.”

Website: sjcbroker.com

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Fall in the Four Corners is more than just cooler weather and changing leaves. In this episode of The Den, powered by the Lyons Group, the team dives into their favorite local traditions, festivals, and fall-time favorites. From green chili roasts and hot air balloons to mountain bike races and funnel cake stops in Silverton, this episode is packed with seasonal charm and community connection. Whether you're new to the area or a longtime local, this conversation will inspire you to get out and enjoy everything autumn has to offer.

KEY TAKEAWAYS
• Roasting green chilies is a signature Four Corners fall experience
• Hot air balloon rallies bring joy and surprise across the region
• The Road Apple Rally is the longest-standing mountain bike race in the U.S.
• Fall festivals hosted by schools and churches create nostalgic memories
• James Ranch is a must-visit for fall soups, farm-to-table meals, and local beauty
• The Durango to Silverton railway is a scenic fall highlight
• Farmers markets showcase local meats, produce, and handmade goods
• Pagosa Springs and Durango Hot Springs are perfect fall getaways
• The Highland Celtic Festival adds unique seasonal flair
• Fall is the perfect time to connect with your community outdoors

BEST MOMENTS
00:01:43. “Well, I grew up in New England, so fall for me is about leaves changing, you know, getting colder.”
00:02:13. “Yeah. You remember the pumpkin shooting? That was awesome. It was like a potato gun on steroids.”
00:03:00. “Towards Silverton it is absolutely gorgeous up there. The leaves are like prime time right now.”
00:03:27. “I love when I just walk outside my house and there is hot air balloons all in the sky.”
00:05:05. “The churches do fall festivals, which are always fun. You know, they’ll have petting zoos and food trucks.”
00:07:01. “Speaking of what is one of the specific events that comes to mind when you think of fall here in the four corners?”
00:08:09. “If I ever fell in real estate, you're going to see me driving a little food truck around.”
00:14:45. “I literally, they have this little thing. They give you your awards and your shirts and a little after party thing.”
00:23:25. “Well, on October 4th, they are doing the growers market here in Farmington.”

Website: sjcbroker.com

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Should You Sell Your Home Without a Realtor?

In this episode of The Den, powered by the Lyons Group, the team dives into the hot topic of For Sale By Owner (FSBO) real estate. Ben, Paul, Aspen, and Shannon break down the risks, rewards, and real-life outcomes of skipping a realtor in the selling process. With over $400 million in sales and nearly 2,000 transactions behind them, this crew brings the hard facts, strong opinions, and a few laughs as they unpack whether FSBO is worth the savings—or just a fast track to regret.

• 6% of 2024 sales were FSBO, according to NAR
• FSBO homes averaged $55,000 less in sale price than agent-assisted sales
• Liability risks increase without professional guidance
• Pricing strategy is the top struggle for FSBO sellers
• Realtors help screen real buyers from time-wasters
• Exposure and marketing drastically affect sales outcomes
• Paperwork and contract errors can cause costly problems
• Emotional negotiations often cost sellers money
• Time-on-market is usually longer without a realtor
• Realtors often identify hidden repair or legal issues before closing

BEST MOMENTS

00:00:57. “Can you actually make more money by not using a realtor, or save money by not using a realtor?”

00:01:18. “DIY Lions. Do it yourself lions. And that never, never works out for me.”

00:02:49. “Some people really truly know what they're doing... but this episode is about pulling back the layers.”

00:03:06. “According to NAR, 6% of all transactions were for sale by owners in 2024.”

00:04:22. “If the average home sold with the realtor was 435,000 versus 380 with the for sale by owner... that’s a $55,000 difference.”

00:06:09. “A lot of for sale by owners will get bombarded with people that just want to tour their house.”

00:07:56. “It’s so much harder for someone to say no, this is my bottom line.”

00:12:13. “She didn’t know until closing that she had another $14,000 bill.”

00:24:24. “Number two pinch point... thinking it was going to be 30 days and they ended up being six months.”

00:29:15. “We make it look easy. And I think that’s another problem with the For Sale by Owner.”

Website: sjcbroker.com

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Why Real Estate Forms Are So Complicated

In this episode of The Den from the Lyons Group, the team dives into the surprisingly complex world of real estate contracts and forms. With insights from Ben, Paul, Shannon, and Aspen, you’ll learn how these documents have evolved, why they matter, and what changes are coming. Whether you're buying, selling, or just curious about the backend of real estate, this episode unpacks everything you didn’t know you needed to know about forms, disclosures, and the push for simplicity.

KEY TAKEAWAYS
• Real estate forms are designed to protect all parties, including agents
• NM and CO forms differ significantly in length and complexity
• The NMAR forms committee constantly updates documents to stay legally current
• Contracts often include outdated or irrelevant sections that confuse clients
• Menu-based contracts are being developed to streamline information
• Redundancy across forms is a major issue being addressed
• Disclosure forms have become overly simplified, losing important detail
• Clients increasingly sign electronically, making full comprehension harder
• Real estate agents play a critical role in educating clients on contracts
• New systems may generate timelines and summaries to enhance clarity

BEST MOMENTS
00:00:02. “Contracts and forms are a critical part of doing real estate business.”
00:01:16. “New Mexico forms are lengthy, they’re wordy, they’re tricky sometimes.”
00:02:56. “I didn’t actually volunteer for it. I was volun-told for it.”
00:05:47. “It has all kinds of information in there that may not be applicable to your house.”
00:09:26. “Not only is it confusing to the consumer… it can become confusing because two years ago the forms were different than they are today.”
00:12:15. “Our contracts have evolved so much. Shannon, what is your take on the way we used to do business?”
00:16:00. “We’ve got to go to the lowest common denominator, which is usually a new broker.”
00:19:25. “We rarely sit down with a client and actually go through every line item detail.”
00:22:17. “Once you have all the dates in there and everything signed, it pops out a calendar for you.”
00:28:23. “You get a tailored and boutique service when you’re looking to buy or sell your property.”

Website: sjcbroker.com

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KEY TAKEAWAYS
• Joe Aubert flew C-17s globally for the Air Force for over a decade
• Farmington's affordability allowed Joe to buy homes for both his family and his mother
• The new aviation program in the Four Corners is a huge opportunity for youth
• Farmington’s close-knit community is a major reason Joe chooses to live there
• Joe’s retirement flight featured a flyover of Farmington and public jet tours
• The area’s affordability gives residents financial flexibility and quality of life
• Farmington’s riverfront has untapped potential for recreation and business
• Regional transportation and walkability remain challenges, especially for elderly and disabled residents
• Economic development is advancing but needs more infrastructure and workforce training
• Joe emphasizes the importance of keeping community values while encouraging smart growth

BEST MOMENTS
00:01:46. “Thank you guys for having me here. I really appreciate your time getting to meet some new friends and hang out with an old friend.”
00:02:22. “I live here in Farmington with my beautiful family, Tiffany and my three kids, Ethan, Emily, and Eliana.”
00:04:41. “I flew globally for eight years, so out of Hawaii at Hickam Air Force Base… then Seattle.”
00:06:16. “I’ve been to probably two-thirds of the countries in the world. I’ve been to every continent.”
00:08:35. “We weren’t allowed to advertise because then there’d be an official event and an air show.”
00:12:19. “The best thing I love about Farmington is that it’s just a very small town, a very tight knit community.”
00:14:58. “The most underutilized resource in this town is the river.”
00:20:12. “Only six percent of San Juan County is privately held, so that was a tough question to answer.”
00:24:20. “I pay a third of what my friends pay in Los Angeles… groceries are less, my taxes are significantly less.”
00:30:34. “Is your wife Tiffany? And it was Alana Nichols. Who grew up here in Farmington.”

Website: sjcbroker.com

TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thelyonsgroup4c
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Produced by APodcastGeek: https://www.apodcastgeek.com

Website: sjcbroker.com

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Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thelyonsgroupfourcorners/

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