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The LightBox podcast team evaluates the week’s bullish and bearish signs contributing to renewed uncertainty in CRE. With a bond market signaling that investors are concerned about geopolitical events and mixed economic data, there’s plenty for the team to dive into: 10-Year Treasurys’ new heights, Fed speak on interest rates, a tale of two divergent retailers like Walmart and Target and some warnings on potential inflation. But as always, there are CRE data and stories delivering some positive offsets. In a special segment, Dianne and Martha, cover an inspiring adaptive reuse story by interviewing Luis Menendez, Director of Construction for the Tunnels to Towers Homeless Veterans Program. Their program transforms distressed properties—like hotels that are no longer viable as businesses—into affordable housing for veterans. For more on the adaptive reuse project, check back next week for the full interview.

Have questions for the podcast team? Reach out to podcast@lightboxre.com.

00:16 Economic Data and Market Concerns

00:43 Which Way is the Wind Blowing?

03:25 Is the Fed Blowing it?

06:34 Retail Earnings and Consumer Behavior

15:56 Commercial Real Estate Sales Trends

20:32 LightBox Data Dive

22:30 Adaptive Reuse and Housing for Veterans

30:01 The Midtown Four Seasons is Back

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You’ll want to take notes during this episode where the team dives into insights from Partner Valuation Advisors’ senior managing directors, Brandon Nunnink and Eric Enloe, on the evolving private REIT market. They explore Q3 trends on bid-ask spreads, the reset in markets like San Francisco, the “enthusiasm gauge” of 2024, cap rate analysis and office price discovery, and where there are untapped opportunities. The conversation also touches on regulatory impacts, the “valuation revolution,” and the momentum of industry benchmarking. Have questions for the podcast team? Reach out to podcast@lightboxre.com.

01:09 Public vs. Private REIT Markets

03:01 "Kitchen Sink” Approach to Valuation

11:41 Cap Rate Analysis and Market Trends

16:27 Opportunities in the Current Market

30:19 AI and Benchmarking

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In this special edition, Martha Coacher and experts Manus Clancy and Dianne Crocker review Trump’s proposed economic agenda, the latest Fed rate cut, and the LightBox CRE Activity Index. With Trump’s election win setting the stage for anticipated policies on tariffs, taxes and deregulation, the team explores the immediate and long-term impacts these could have on commercial real estate. They also unpack the Fed's recent decision and what the CRE Activity Index reveals about market sentiment and investor activity as the industry navigates a shifting policy landscape. Have questions for the podcast team? Reach out to podcast@lightboxre.com.

02:57 The Wealth Effect and Economic Implications

09:01 Tariffs and Their Impact on Inflation

11:52 Construction Costs and Housing Market Dynamics

15:13 Tax Cuts and Their Economic Consequences

17:57 Labor Market Challenges and Immigration Policies

21:05 Regulatory Changes

29:47 CRE Activity Index Insights

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With Treasury yields marching upward, the podcast team dives into inflation, jobs, and big tech earnings data and what it means ahead of the presidential election. A lot has changed in the last 45 days as investor euphoria has recalibrated. The team also shares Q3 data from LightBox RCM, focusing on capital market and investment trends. And ‘Professor’ Manus gives us an education on CMBS losses with some doses of fact and fiction. Transactions covered this week have some surprises and a fair share of green shoots. Have questions for the podcast team? Reach out to podcast@lightboxre.com.

00:17 Economic Data and Treasury Yields

02:20 Inflation and Market Sentiment

08:49 Big Tech Earnings and AI Investment

13:19 Nuclear Energy “Reprise”

17:09 Lightbox Data Dive and Market Trends

31:46 Office Leasing and Sales Highlights

36:33 Environmental Due Diligence and Property Resilience

37:54 Chobani's New Headquarters and Social Impact

39:41 Halloween “Fun Size”

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In this week’s podcast episode, Brian Olasov, Executive Director of Financial Services Consulting at Carlton Fields and Adjunct Professor of Real Estate Capital Markets at New York University Schack, joins the team to discuss the current state of the commercial real estate market. With the benefit of a historical perspective, Brian holds nothing back as he discusses today's market challenges, and why this recovery is not like the one from the Great Financial Crisis. He also explores the paradoxical situation banks find themselves in and the evolving role of private equity in shaping commercial real estate trends.

02:20 Flawed Forecasts and Contrary Indicators
10:58 Today's Lender's Market Conditions
15:40 The Snowplow Effect and Market Dynamics
21:54 Private Equity's Role in the Current Market
25:41 Data Centers: The New Investment Favorite
30:24 Managing Operating Expenses in a Challenging Market
32:18 Loan Servicing Industry's Capacity to Handle Distress

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In this week’s guest pod episode, the team dives into the potential economic impact of the upcoming November election with special guest David McCarthy, managing director and head of Legislative Affairs at CREFC. McCarthy breaks down the CRE risks and opportunities tied to outcome scenarios, examining potential impacts on taxes, housing and climate change policies, and banking regulations. Plus, how can the industry address concerns over property risk and soaring insurance rates in the wake of extreme weather events?

02:56 What are the Risks and Opportunities?

05:47 Focus on Tax Policy

11:52 The Role of the Federal Reserve

15:10 Private Equity and Regulatory Concerns

18:01 Insurance Challenges in Commercial Real Estate

20:49 Housing Policy and Government Support

24:03 Who’s Worried about the Federal Deficit?

26:53 Basel III and Banking Regulations

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This week the team considers whether the Fed’s jumbo rate cut last month now seems ill-advised in the context of fresh inflation data that was warmer than expected and the September jobs report that showed a surge in job growth. This episode is chock full including LightBox data analysis assessing Hurricane Milton’s landfall with structures at risk; CRE appraisal trends for Q3; office leasing comps, and sales comps with one that sounds like ‘music’ to our ears. Plus, a deep dive into post-storm impact related to hazardous substances and contamination, emphasizing the need to assess these risks. Listen to the end for a clue about an immersive Times Square experience that’s coming.

02:58 Federal Reserve's Rate Decisions and Market Reactions

06:11 Impact of Natural Disasters on Real Estate

09:07 Environmental Risks and Post-Hurricane Assessments

11:48 Office Leasing Activity

17:59 Emerging Trends in Environmental Due Diligence

20:45 Appraisal Index and Market Snapshots

27:02 Sales Trends and Market Dynamics

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Join Martha, Manus, and Dianne on this week’s episode of the CRE Weekly Digest as they dive into the impact of Hurricane Helene and the industry's move toward a Property Resilience Assessment to better measure environmental risk. The team also reveals the latest LightBox CRE Activity Index, which rose modestly in September, signaling growing confidence in the CRE market. Listen to the discussion about how the Fed policy shift has fueled an increase in property listings and due diligence activities, setting the stage for a strong fourth quarter. But the young recovery could go wobbly with recent macro events like the devastation from the hurricane, the (now suspended) port labor strike, and escalating conflict in the Middle East. There are also notable office lease stories and sales comps across property types that round out the week's news. The team dedicates this podcast to those impacted by Hurricane Helene and the emergency personnel responding to the post-hurricane recovery efforts.

00:00 Concerning Macro Events

02:55 Impact of Hurricane Helene

05:48 Climate Risk and Property Resilience Assessment

09:06 LightBox CRE Activity Index

15:11 Leasing Trends and Office Leasing

18:06 Sales Transactions and Market Highlights

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