In this conversation between Guy Spier and Eric Schaanning, the discussion revolves around the intricacies of asset-liability management (ALM) and interest rate risk, particularly in the banking sector. Eric shares insights from his experience, explaining key concepts like the economic value of equity (EVE), DV01 (the sensitivity of a bank's net present value to interest rate changes), and various risk management techniques used by banks.

The conversation explores how different banks, depending on their lending structures (e.g., fixed-rate vs. floating-rate loans), manage interest rate risk. Eric discusses the role of macro and micro hedging, highlighting that while macro hedging is used to offset risks from a portfolio of loans, micro hedging targets individual debt issuance with specific interest rate swaps. The conversation also touches on the concept of "equity term out," referring to how a bank's equity is handled from an interest rate risk perspective.

Guy draws a parallel to value investing and mentions how understanding banking risk management, such as interest rate risk, is valuable for investors, especially when evaluating financial institutions. He mentions the importance of having a clear understanding of how these risks could impact stock prices and the economic health of banks.

The discussion ends with reflections on how understanding these concepts can enhance an investor's decision-making, particularly in evaluating the risks and opportunities in the banking sector. Eric emphasizes the importance of thinking about balance sheets over time and how these insights apply not only to banks but also to individuals managing their own finances. Finally, Eric shares resources like LinkedIn and his personal Google site for further learning.

In this engaging podcast, Howard Marks, co-founder of Oaktree Capital, and Guy Spier, founder of Aquamarine Capital, share invaluable investment wisdom with Roi Lipovetzky, a former MBA student and current investment professional at Oakmount Capital.

The conversation explores key principles of successful investing, such as mastering market cycles, second-level thinking, risk management, and the importance of long-term, contrarian positions. Howard reflects on his experience through major market events, while Guy emphasizes the need for emotional discipline and unconventional thinking.

A key theme in their discussion is the importance of being true to oneself, especially in a world that often values conformity. Both Howard and Guy highlight the value of making independent decisions and staying grounded in one’s own principles, rather than trying to please others or follow popular trends.

With years of collective experience, Howard and Guy provide deep insights into the mindset needed for lasting success in investing and life.

Full transcript available here: https://aqfd.docsend.com/view/2nv2iqixj8rm7bb7

Contents:

(00:00) A Journey of Learning: Insights from Howard Marks, Guy Spier an Roi Lipovetzky

(03:20) Focusing on Excellence: Howard Marks on Building Oaktree for the Long Term

(07:19) Writing for Investors, Not for Entertainment

(18:09) Honesty, Risk and Purpose

(27:23) The Value of Fun: Howard Marks on Enjoyment, Work, and Investing

(33:38) Risk, Resilience, and Staying True to Your Principles

(41:12) Closing Reflections: The Power of Truth and Clarity

In this gripping segment, Eric Schaanning and Guy Spier delve into the complex world of interest rate risk, revealing how seemingly straightforward banking practices can quickly turn into high-stakes dilemmas. Schaanning breaks down how banks forecast deposit behaviours, merging historical trends with expert judgment. He explains that as interest rates fluctuate, customer preferences shift dramatically—rising rates lure them into term deposits for better returns, while declining rates send them back to the safety of site deposits.

But the intrigue doesn’t stop there. The duo uncovers the hidden layers of behavioural modelling in assessing credit risk, identifying subtle signals that may indicate a customer’s financial distress. Changes in spending habits and payment timing can serve as critical warning signs, shedding light on the delicate balance banks must maintain to safeguard their portfolios. Spier interjects with essential advice for individuals grappling with financial strain, emphasizing the power of communication and proactive payment management.

As the conversation reaches its climax, Schaanning reveals a shocking twist: a seemingly lucrative fixed-rate loan could morph into a devastating loss due to unexpected interest rate spikes. With banks grappling to adapt in an ever-shifting economic landscape, the stakes are higher than ever. This tantalizing cliffhanger sets the stage for their next discussion, where risk management strategies and survival tactics will be put to the test in the face of looming financial uncertainties.

Full transcript available here: https://aqfd.docsend.com/view/jtbtn9zjhaebq9eh

Here's a link to the presentation: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5007032

Contents:

(00:00:00) Why banking Regulations Matter: A Dinner Table Explanation

(00:08:50) Calculating Net Interest Income with a Simple Example

(00:14:22) Fixed vs. Floating Rate Loans: Cash Flow Dynamics

(00:22:19) Balance Sheet Management: Shifting Between Income and Capital

(00:29:47) Interest Rate Swaps and Market Liquidity

(00:37:57) Exploring Risk Measurement and Gap Profiles in Banking

(00:40:52) Navigating Liquidity Risk and Redemption Dynamics in Investment Funds

(00:48:24) Understanding Interest Rate Risk and Behavioural Modelling in Banking