On this episode of The Rate Guys we talk about how last week the 10 Year Treasury spiked, the dollar slipped, and headlines claim the world is ditching the U.S. JP breaks down what really happened — and why it’s probably not about deficits or de-dollarization.

From CPI cooling to basis swap unwinds, it was one of the wildest weeks of JP’s career. He explains the chaos, calls out the hype, and reminds us: reducing exposure isn’t the same as betting against the U.S.

To check out the graphs referenced - check out the Pensford Newsletter

This week's episode of The Rate Guy is dedicated to tariffs, tariffs and more tariffs. Trying to make sense of what they'll do to interest rates, what is keeping us up about them and the 2 things that will make the Fed start cutting rates in June.

This week’s episode explores The Uncertainty Bends™—a not-so-scientific condition where markets, like vacationers, decompress too fast and suffer the consequences. With consumer confidence plunging, discretionary spending slowing, and the Fed stuck between inflation and recession fears, signs point to growing instability.

We unpack:

• The latest on interest rates and consumer behavior

• Why sentiment may be flashing recession signals

• What’s driving economic uncertainty—and how long it could last

Also, somehow this marks 5 years of podcasting unfiltered, occasionally accurate, and questionably useful economic insights. Thanks for listening (and surviving) with us!