🎙️ Episode Highlights

00:00 – Market Pulse: We’re So Back Baby!
US IPOs are red-hot (CoreWeave, Circle), S&P nearly at ATH, and Q2 GDP forecasts hit 3.5%.
The resurgence in AI and crypto-led optimism despite fiscal clouds.

03:00 – Bubble or Boom?
Are we heading into bubble territory?
US deficits are ballooning, but M&A tailwinds and LP liquidity look promising.

05:00 – The Sentiment Effect
Economic psychology: consumer sentiment drives GDP.
Europe’s problem? It talks itself down. The US? Belief + boldness.

06:50 – Big Tech Bets on Britain
Amazon pledges £40B UK investment (data centres, fulfilment, even a film studio).
British Business Bank expands to £25B. Visma chooses London IPO over Nasdaq—confidence win?

14:00 – UK’s 10-Year Industrial Push
Gov’t targets AI, defence, creative, and energy—aiming to slash grid connection delays.
Electricity costs still a major drag. Can policy execution catch up to rhetoric?

18:00 – The UK’s Economic Reality Check
High inflation + stagnant growth = stagflation-lite.
£66B in working-age benefits forecast by 2029. Labour’s internal revolt blocks real reform.

27:00 – Tariff Tensions Mount
Trump trade wars return: EU braces for July 9 deadline. Retaliation looms.
Could German auto exports be the pressure point?

32:00 – AI in the Wild
Apple eyes Perplexity. DocuSign sues scrappy 2-day clone.
Seed-strapped startups exit for millions without VC - Paradigm shift or PR hype?

37:00 – Copyright Battles Begin
Meta & Anthropic win round one using “transformative use” defence.
The big legal fight (OpenAI vs NYT) still looms.

41:00 – Robotaxi Rollout?
Tesla demos driverless fleet in Austin - damp squib? Still lagging Waymo.
Real progress or just share-price theatre?

43:00 – Europe’s Bay Area Dream
Can Europe become Silicon Valley? Should we can we?
It’s not about funding - it’s confidence, imagination, and embracing failure.

51:00 – Optimism Please!
Q2 earnings optimism and promising chip efficiency breakthroughs.
Markets strong, founders bold, and Europe's moment (maybe) coming.

🎙️ Upside 45 Podcast – “Defence, Dirty Deals, and Disruption”

This week

• EU defence spend motors - will it save us?
• European Space Agency military satellites
• US-China competition - European opportunity?
• US IPOs up 30% this year, so far, so what
• British surgical robotics start-up -> sell-out

⏱️ [01:13] – Geopolitical Hotspots and Defence

• Iran’s global influence and diaspora
• Ukraine’s resistance to Israel-Iran dynamics
• Cautious optimism about regime change
• WWIII has begun?

⏱️ [03:35] – Oil & Markets

• Brent crude spikes (from $70 → $77, possibly $100+)
• Shipping, inflation, and interest rates affected
• Bank of England holds rates amid uncertainty

⏱️ [05:52] – Impact on Venture?

• Founders not immediately impacted, but long-term capital flow risks flagged
• Defence tension might dry up funding or shift VC attention

⏱️ [06:56] – Defence as a European Economic Engine?

• Defence our financial lifeline? But VC exposure to defence is tiny

⏱️ [09:35] – Unicorns in EU Defense Tech

• 3 recent unicorns: Helsing, Tekever, Quantum Systems
• Helsing shifts gear
• VCs rush in - BUT Sales cycles, procurement, regulation

⏱️ [12:38] – Helsing’s Capital & The VC Taboo

• US firms: Lightspeed, Accel, General Catalyst
• Homegrown capital is crucial to reducing 10x funding gap with US
• EIF restricts arms/weapons investments
• Helsing’s value as a “reference company” for LPs

⏱️ [18:51] – ESA’s Satellite Plans

• EU Space Agency wants €1B+ to build military satellite network.

⏱️ [22:15] – Iris vs Starlink Context

• Iris <> Starlink
• EU must move fast on sovereignty or risk dependence

⏱️ [23:59] – NASA Cuts vs ESA Budgets

• NASA’s proposed 25% cut
• Europe’s ESA increasing funding—ironically divergent paths

⏱️ [25:52] – China, Trade Wars, and Supply Chains

• EU’s dependence on Chinese imports (clean tech, chemicals)
• Fear of trade dumping post US-China de-coupling
• Rare earth constraints impacting defence and auto industries

⏱️ [29:45] – Tariff Timelines

• July 9 tariff decision
• Potential EU-US mini deal to avoid Trump’s punitive tariffs
• Pharmaceuticals next

⏱️ [32:00] – IPO Boom in the US

• Chime, Circle, CoreWeave IPOs—massive post-IPO pops
• Klarna leads EU pipeline

⏱️ [34:04] – IPO vs Private Capital

• Bill Gurley’s hatred of bankers
• Private markets still offering better valuations
• SPACs are back!

⏱️ [36:25] – Surgical Robots and CMR Surgical

• CMR (Cambridge Medical Robotics)
• Raised $1B, now eyeing $4B exit
• Premature exit
• CMR’s potential lost
• Scale homegrown tech more aggressively

⏱️ [44:45] – Deed of the Week

• Daniel Ek’s €600M into Helsing
• Paris-based Nabla raises $70M Series C
• Scale AI deal closes in one week
• Fastest capital deployment of its kind; no FTC review needed

⏱️ [49:05] – Founders in Government

• Alex Depledge named UK entrepreneurship advisor
• Praise for founders like Matt Clifford shaping UK tech policy

⏱️ [51:10] – Meta’s AI Talent War

• Meta’s aggressive poaching of OpenAI talent
• AI job market likened to football transfer season
• Pay off or backfire?

Upside - The *real* stories affecting European Venture.

This week Mads, Lomax and I discuss: AI cybercrime, UK govt investing in tech/AI, cheap energy (nuclear isn't), Tesla’s RoboFail, 996 and founder work-life balance, AI growth but is the revenue good? and the shock flip between private vs. public markets.

• 01:24 – Cyber-Security: Rising Threats
  43 % of UK businesses hit by cyber-crime last year; avg. of 2,000 attacks/week in Q1 2025.
• 02:07 – AI-Enabled Attacks & Geopolitical Impact
  AI tools lower the barrier for sophisticated attacks by state-sponsored or rogue actors - new front in modern warfare by economic disruption.
• 04:12 – Kinetic vs. Cyber Warfare
  The mix of traditional (kinetic) and cyber fronts.
• 07:20 – Government Spending Review: Big Picture
  Rachel Reeves’s 3-year spending framework amid a weak UK economy: £120bn on infrastructure; £43bn for science & innovation; £2bn AI Action Plan.
• 16:50 – Energy Landscape & Nuclear
  The UK’s high industrial energy costs (6× US); sovereignty & intermittency issues; nuclear offers clean baseload and sovereignty but at what cost?
• 19:21 – Fusion & Long-Term Energy Tech
  Recent fusion advances (Tokamak West’s 22 min plasma) and Proxima Fusion’s €130 m Series A, but 20 yr horizon remains.
• 25:51 – Tesla’s Robotaxi Roll-Out
  Tesla’s delayed Austin launch (moved from June 12→22); cost comparison vs. Waymo.
• 28:34 – Europe’s AV Landscape: The Brexit Dividend
  Wayve’s UK partnerships (Nissan, Uber, spring 2026 trial at L4 autonomy) versus EU’s slower L2/3 regs.
• 32:26 – Founder Work Ethic Debate
  Heated talk around “996” & extreme hustle: Lomax quotes Paul Graham on youth vs. age advantages.
• 37:00 – AI Revenue Growth & Sustainability
  LLM businesses doubling revenue every 2 months; examples: Anysphere’s $500m ARR, Lovable’s €61m ARR; concerns around gross margins, churn & long-term profitability.
• 46:14 – Private vs. Public Market Performance
  First time in 25 yrs that private markets underperform public across 1/3/5/10 yr horizons (State Street report): “Magnificent 7” driving public returns. A shake-out & opportunity ahead as private seeks its illiquidity premium.
• 52:00 – Notable Deals
  • Multiverse (ES) – €189m Series B for LLM compression tech (95 % size reduction)
  • Oxford Ionics → IonQ – $1bn+ acquisition of UK trapped-ion quantum spin-out
• 55:47 – Closing & Condolences
  Dan sends thoughts to those affected by the Air India crash, and wraps up with thanks and next-week teasers.

Hosts: Dan Bowyer, Lomax Ward, Mads Jensen.

The real news behind the headlines affecting European Venture.

ECB interest rate cuts, IPO market divergence, AI copyright tension, UK Strategic Defence Review, and the NHS starts liquid biopsies.

00:58 – ECB Rate Cuts: So what for Europe and Startups?
8 rate cuts in 12 months signals easing. EU’s sub-2% inflation vs. US’s higher inflation + deficit (~7% of GDP).Fiscal strength = leverage for defence and energy investment.

04:34 – Capital Flows & Sentiment
Will a weaker euro drive more capital to riskier assets?

05:27 – Contrasting the US Volatility vs. EU Stability
Volatility in the US makes EU relatively attractive, but low EU growth remains a concern. Lower rates long-term can push capital into startups and infrastructure.

07:21 – IPO Markets: A Tale of Two Cities
US IPO market is booming (+80%), UK (-80%). 143 US IPOs vs. 5 UK IPOs YTD. $13B raised in US vs. ummm £75M in UK?!

09:11 – Why is the UK IPO Scene Lagging?
US market cap ~17x that of UK; daily trading 50x more.

12:35 – Pisces Liquidity Schemes: Public vs. Private Market Debate
Pisces—a new semi-liquid scheme for startup equity. Private markets aren’t built for public-style trading. Carta tried—failed.

15:11 – Systemic Decline of London’s Public Market
From ~1/3 the size of S&P 500 in 2007 to 1/17 today. Staggering numbers.

21:49 – UK Defence Review: Investment & Opportunity
New £87B plan over 10 years. Will it benefit startups? Still heavily physical (~80%), but £400M earmarked for innovation.

28:24 – Sovereign Tech & Europe's Defence Role
Is £400M enough? Contextualised vs. Anduril’s $2.5B raise.

37:08 – AI Infrastructure in Europe
Links defence with economic growth. EU's €20B AI Superfactory plans underway; Germany’s first data cluster. Huge challenge: power costs & permitting.

40:19 – NHS Liquid Biopsies: Tech Meets Real-World Healthcare
NHS rolling out liquid biopsy for lung/breast cancer patients. Huge potential.

45:54 – The Case for Healthcare Tech Efficiency
NHS productivity is down despite 14% spending increase since 2019.

46:12 – Deals of the Week
MUBI: UK-based streaming platform raises $100M from Sequoia.
Beckley Psytech & Atai merger: A pivotal moment for psychedelics + mental health.
Grammarly: $1B non-dilutive raise led by General Catalyst; Ukrainian roots, US-led round.

Until next week fine people...

Trade Wars, Tariffs, and Tech Shifts – The Big Picture Shaping European Startups

With Dan Bowyer, Mads Jensen & Lomax Ward

00:00 – Intro: The Need to Talk Tariffs

• Dan kicks off the episode with a reminder: No groans, we need to talk tariffs.
• Taco tariffs, international trade deals, and looming US-EU trade tensions.

00:29 – Federal Judges, EU-US Trade, and Startup Impacts

• The EU-US trade deal cajoled activity: what does it mean for investors, startups, and Europe?

00:59 – Lomax’s Context: The Behemoth US-EU Trade Relationship

• $1.5 trillion annual trade; US-EU dwarfs US-China.
• Why has there never been a formal trade deal? Regulatory misalignments and subsidy wars (Airbus-Boeing).
• Harmonisation of standards as a critical issue—hardware startups especially at risk.

02:12 – Regulatory Divergence and Why It Matters

• EU’s precautionary principle vs. US’s risk-based model.
• Trade deals aren't just tariffs—harmonising standards can unlock growth.

03:50 – Hardware Startups & the Tariff Threat

• 10% of EU startups are hardware—“they will struggle if tariffs hit 50%.”

04:28 – The China & Russia Factor in Trade Rebalancing

• Trump’s chaotic policies, stock markets up despite tariff shocks.

06:01 – Inflation, Deficits, and Market Volatility

• Residual tariffs could push US inflation by .5-1%.
• “Congress looking to add $3-4 trillion over 10 years.”
• The importance of EU sophistication in trade negotiations

08:55 – Direct vs. Indirect Impact on Startups

• Tariffs affect hardware directly; inflation and interest rates indirectly.
• Interest rates impact M&A, liquidity, DPI, and venture capital flows.

11:27 – Markets’ Schism: Bond Traders vs. Equity Investors

• Bond traders panic over risk; equity investors bet on AI’s promise.

12:09 – Trump’s Amplifier Effect: Deregulation vs. Chaos

• The paradox of Trump’s anti-regulation stance fuelling optimism vs. destabilisation.

13:42 – EU’s Startup & Scale-Up Strategy: Will It Work?

• €10B blended fund, blue carpet initiative for talent, regulatory simplification.

17:23 – The Slow Pace of EU Policy: 2026-27 Timelines

• Lomax: “28th regime sounds like a Robert Harris novel—big thanks to Andreas Klinger for pushing it.”

19:50 – Employee Stock Options: Europe’s Broken System

• The need for harmonisation—“It’s key to unlocking talent.”

21:49 – Big Tech Announcements: AI’s Velocity

• Google I/O, Microsoft Build, Nvidia’s blowout quarter.
• AI’s exponential growth—“50x increase in token processing in a year.”

27:30 – The Application Layer: Opportunities and Disruptions

• AI’s impact on startup building: velocity of product cycles, risk of obsolescence.
• Dan: “Will SaaS die as AI tools empower in-house builds?”

36:54 – OpenAI + Johnny Ive: Hardware, Form Factors, and Speculation

• A $6.5B stock deal, secretive hardware project—pendant? Phone? Glasses? A new paradigm?
• “I hope it’s not a pendant!”

39:10 – The Race for the Next Form Factor

• Apple’s stagnation; OpenAI’s ambition to dethrone them.

41:10 – Wrap-Up: EU Urgency, Munich’s Tech Momentum, and the Week Ahead

• Munich as a growing hub: TSMC, Apple, Quantum Systems.
• Lomax: “Bright Flag’s $425M exit is a big deal for the European ecosystem.”

The real stories behind the headlines affecting European Venture.

This week Mads, Lomax, Andrew and I are all out and about at various conferences and events speaking with European LPs and GPs about our ecosystem - themes and trends for 2025 and beyond, how we grow, how we go toe-to-toe. The pitfalls, the breaks and beyond.

Interviews with:

Jone Vaituleviciute from First Pick
Francesco Perticarari from siliconroundabout.ventures
Charlotte Palmer from Integra Global Advisors
Mike Sigal from Sigal ventures
Dan Smith from Repeat Ventures
Antonio Miguel from Maze Impact
Ozge Oz from QNBEYOND Ventures
Philipp Herkelmann from EU Inc
Andreas Klinger from EU Inc and Prototype

Timestamps:

00:00 Introducing Dragons with Andrew Scott
07:40 Lomax goes toe-to-toe with Silicon Valley
13:05 Jone from First Pick and her Lithuanian adventures
15:15 Francesco from SiliconValley Ventures on 2025 deep tech opportunities
16:36 Oz from QNB and his one big ask
17:12 Charlotte from Integra - what to look for in emerging managers
19:50 Mike Sigal breaks down the European capital challenge
24:20 Dan from Repeat on renewed LP positivity
25:22 Antonio from Maze on Trump crushing Impact - or is he?
26:35 Mads with EU Inc founders Andreas and Philip - Why Europe why now

🎙️ Upside: Special Edition with Jo Living — Poker, Pressure & Performance in Business, Startups and Investing

Host: Dan Bowyer
Guest: Jo Living, Founder of ACES High

Jo Living joins Dan to explore the high-stakes parallels between poker and the business world. From her upbringing around cards to founding a FemTech startup and launching ACES High, Jo unpacks how poker has helped her navigate negotiations, raise capital, build teams—and teach others to perform under pressure.

01:07 – Jo’s Career Journey
From investment banking to FemTech founder to poker circuit regular, Jo traces the experiences that led to ACES High.

03:29 – The Trigger Moment
A trip to Morocco, winning a poker tournament while pregnant, and launching informal poker nights back home.

05:19 – Skills Poker Builds for Business
Jo outlines the key transferable skills: deep listening, risk management, performance under pressure, and reading the room.

05:59 – Poker & Gender Imbalance
Despite the male-dominated scene, Jo shares how the environment is evolving and why inclusivity—not 50/50 parity—is the goal.

07:44 – Lessons for Startup Teams
Jo compares limited data in poker and startups, bankroll/runway management, and the importance of making high-quality decisions consistently.

09:49 – Playing the Long Game
Resilience, persistence, and strategic decision-making.

10:29 – Aura Fertility & Negotiating as a Founder
Jo shares how she raised £600k for her FemTech startup and used poker instincts to navigate valuation and investor conversations.

13:55 – Negotiation Mistakes: The "All-In" Fallacy
Jo unpacks why some founders or investors go "all in"—and what they’re really signaling about negotiation ability and ego.

14:37 – Executive Presence & Investor Psychology
Playing not just the cards, but the perceptions. Jo explains how table presence mirrors founder confidence in boardrooms.

15:10 – Poker Misconceptions
Debunking myths: poker isn’t all bluffing. Jo explains the difference between bluff-based games and Texas Hold'em.

16:20 – Why Texas Hold’em is a Business Masterclass
Community cards mean shared data, emphasising logic, negotiation, and risk evaluation—not deception.

17:22 – Should All Founders Learn Poker?
Jo makes a strong case for poker as a self-awareness tool—revealing how we handle stress, risk, and conflict.

20:56 – Biggest Founder Lesson from Poker
Avoiding "tilt" after a setback and how to bounce back with focus and discipline.

21:45 – Bankroll Strategy & Knowing Your Levers
Jo explains why you need "enough chips to do damage"—and how that applies to leverage in business negotiation.

23:16 – Poker as a Hiring Tool?
Jo suggests poker simulations may outperform psychometric tests in surfacing resilience, strategy, and interpersonal savvy.

24:56 – Duplicate Bridge & Gamified Hiring
A thought-provoking take on creating controlled poker challenges to assess talent and founder potential.

26:07 – Poker is Not Just for the Bros
Jo highlights how beginner women often outperform overconfident players through disciplined, strategic play.

27:15 – Final Thoughts: A Tool for Strategic Insight
Poker as a lens for understanding investment decisions, founder mindset, and long-term success.

• Website: aceshighlondon.com
• Instagram: @aceshighlondon
• LinkedIn: Jo Living

Upside: Public Meets Private – What It Means for Venture

In this episode of Upside, Dan is joined by Lomax from Outsized, Andrew from 7%, and Mads from SuperSeed to explore how public markets intersect with private markets—and why it matters for VCs and founders alike.

Key Topics Covered:

• [00:01] Welcome & Intros:
  • Dan welcomes guests and sets the scene for a deep dive into public vs. private markets.
• [02:00] Ørsted’s Offshore Wind Cancellation:
  • Mads unpacks the Hornsea phase four cancellation.
  • Energy security, interest rates, and the geopolitical chessboard.
• [07:20] The UK’s Future of Compute:
  • Lomax highlights Albion VC’s report on UK deep tech and compute.
  • What went wrong with Graphcore and what’s next for quantum players like Riverlane and Quantum Motion.
• [10:45] Healthcare IT & NHS Modernisation:
  • Andrew revisits the NHS’s tech failures and weighs the new £21B upgrade plan.
  • The case for agile, smaller tech firms in public procurement.
• [16:30] DoorDash-Deliveroo Deal & EIF Market Pulse:
  • Dan covers DoorDash’s acquisition of Deliveroo and what it says about European tech exits.
  • EIF’s barometer survey: what’s top of mind for VCs and PE in Europe right now.
• [18:38] UK-EU Youth Mobility & Trade Talks:
  • Mads outlines the potential for a youth mobility deal post-Brexit.
  • Lomax emphasizes the enduring importance of EU-UK trade vs. US-UK hype.
• [20:55] Public Markets’ Role in VC:
  • Dan kicks off a new segment: why public markets matter even if you're a private investor.
  • Surprising stats on IPO sizes, US investor involvement, and cross-border exits.
• [29:17] Lightspeed’s RIA Move Explained:
  • Lomax explains why Lightspeed and other big VCs are becoming RIAs.
  • What it means for fund structures, founders, and the evolving investment landscape.
• [50:20] Secondaries Deep Dive:
  • The group discusses the booming role of secondaries in venture.
  • Liquidity, DPI, and how VCs are adapting to a world of longer-hold private assets.
• [59:37] AI Corner:
  • Mads updates on Google’s new AI milestone overtaking Anthropic’s Claude 3.7.
  • OpenAI’s nonprofit drama and its funding round headaches.
• [1:01:30] Deal of the Week:
  • Spotlight on two European drone unicorns: TechEver (Portugal) and Quantum Systems (Germany).
  • The rise of defence-tech in Europe and implications for global security.
• [1:06:10] Marrakesh & EU VC Meetups:
  • Dragon Chasers VC retreat in Marrakesh—paragliding and power networking.
  • EU VC crew gathering in London to strengthen European venture ties.

If you're a founder, investor, or just passionate about startups and venture capital, Upside is your go-to source for deep dives into the trends shaping Europe’s tech scene.