This week we chat with Mike the ex editor of TechCrunch, getting his take on the past, present and future of all things Euro-startup. Mads shares his thoughts on the All In Summit. We chat about defence strategies, pension funds and Euro cash injections, Germany moving and shaking their startup scene, Draghi's anniversary, the EU Inc guys / 28th regime - and what this all means for us in venture, for founders, investors and startups.

00:35 – TechCrunch Europe → reset
Redundancies post-Yahoo sale; Mike takes a breather, experiments with social video.

01:29 – Mike’s showreel
’95 journo → FTGuardian → joins TechCrunch Europe in ’07; spins up The Europas and Techfugees.

03:51 – New media > old blogs
Creators (MrBeast, Bari Weiss, Cleo Abram) now disrupt the disruptors; social is the front door for news; AI reshapes formats.

06:02 – Europe’s vibe, not the Valley’s
Fragmentation persists, but Slush VivaTech Web Summit LTW etc. anchor a distinct EU flavour.

09:24 – Culture shift needed
Be candid *and* boosterish; being bigger and bolder.

12:17 – All-In Summit debrief
Robotics “hand problem” (26 actuators arm; supply chain missing), AGI ≈ 5–10y, China’s practical AI push, enterprise AI moats (boring infra), Europe’s latent talent vs weak commercialisation; “physical AI” window is NOW.

16:27 – EU Inc & Draghi (1-year on)
EU-wide startup entity push; Draghi’s 383 recs: only ~40 actioned; public consultation live at eu-inc.org.

18:29 – What to fix in Europe
Planning gridlock (HS2 file bloat; energy permits ~44 months) + misallocated pensions (€16T, >55% in bonds ~3%). Shift saver incentives and trustee “prudence” toward productive assets to unlock ~€970B yr.

20:56 – Implementation drag
Only a sliver of Draghi implemented; call for a “crack” execution unit; R&D under-invested vs US. EU grants take ~240 days from green light to cash.

24:02 – UK pensions: rhetoric vs mechanics
Fee caps & plumbing still block meaningful allocations despite political cheerleading.

28:28 – Germany’s draft startup tax reform
Founder and VC-friendly fixes from German Govt (e.g., ESOP dry income relief, longer deferral, broader eligibility).

35:39 – Deal of the week: ASML → Mistral (€2B)
Mistral >€100m ARR; ASML’s strategic seat to frontier models; comps far below US hypers; BNP with 800+ use cases. Raises EU late-stage capital question; balance sheets stepping in.

48:48 – Defence - UK Strategy, Russian Drones and NATO/European Reaction
Poland shoots down Russian drones; UK to 2.5% GDP defence by 2027 (+ regional £250m hubs). Good signal, too small; procurement speed is the moat; Eastern front buying *now*.

Let markets drive early-stage VC; fix EU growth/IPO capital via pension reform. Win AI as power users, not model builders. Geopolitics demands EU/ally coordination. Quantum’s having a moment.

This week it's Mads, Lomax and Dan. All European early stage VCs looking behind the headlines to explore what's affecting venture, founders and investors.

00:00–03:07 — “28th regime” for EU VC?Dan proposes a structured EU venture vehicle

03:07–07:46 — Let chaos reign- Bottom-up or top-down? governments already big LPs; VC must deliver performance to unlock pensions.

07:46–13:11 — Macro & pensions.Dealroom report: EU VC-backed value ≈ $3.5T; domestic pensions rising but tiny vs need; UK fiscal context not worst in G7.

13:24–16:46 — Macro vs micro - Do we care?Great teams still raise; next KPI is a Europe-born “Mag-7-scale” company.

16:46–19:49 — Why UK tax payers support MAG7.Rules favour bonds (low fees/vol); reform prudential & tax to channel savings into EU productive assets.

19:49–21:25 — Can EU scale.Capital aggregation at multi-billion rounds remains the choke point.

22:41–25:48 — Google antitrust.No breakup; must share index/click data on commercial, non-discriminatory terms—light remedy.

26:18–30:16 — Isambard & AI adoption.UK supercomputer is symbolic; real edge is becoming the best AI adopter (health/life-sciences, public services).

32:25–39:47 — Power of Xi.China’s manufacturing lead; EU needs re-armament, industrial base, and alliances (US + Asian democracies).

40:24–41:54 — Deals of the week (Quantum).Quantinuum raises $600m (≈$10B val); IQM hits unicorn; prior Oxford Ionics → IonQ deal noted.

This week on Upside – It's a digital sovereignty deeper dive - what does it really mean, Nvidia is up but kinda not, Apple vs CMA - stormy teacup, and Governments Buying AI - which is a a great thing! Yes it is.

With Mads, Lomax, Andreas and Dan.

00:52 – Why Nvidia is “the poster child”
Picks & shovels of AI; outsized share of data-centre capex; sheer scale of valuation and index weight.

01:49 – Numbers that bend the mind
$100B rev $25B net income quarter; growth decelerating (YoY strong, QoQ data-centre +5%) and mostly “priced in.”

04:33 – Europe’s chip toolkit
ASML, STMicro, Infineon, ARM as the homegrown counterweight—and the media’s US-centric bias.

06:07 – Apple vs UK CMA
Interoperability, payments, “Apple tax,” and the tension between competition policy and platform control.

08:05 – When regulation helps
Open banking as a rare win; risk of “fighting the last war” on phones while AI becomes the real battleground.

16:36 – Antitrust lessons for AI
Need smarter, transatlantic, pro-innovation guardrails before AI market power locks in.

18:55 – Creative destruction vs. cops
Markets toppled IBM/Microsoft; you can’t regulate your way to greatness—create conditions to compete.

21:05 – Sovereignty kicks off: US buys 10% of Intel
Equity via CHIPS grants; debate on retroactive terms, national champions, and when government should own.

28:26 – Europe’s long tradition of state help
Airbus, satellites, energy—how “strategic” differs from picking winners.

30:42 – What should be sovereign
Compute/chips, energy, critical minerals, food/health inputs, and space—areas where hands-off fails.

37:12 – UK gov is buying AI (a lot)
Spend surges; Microsoft & Palantir dominate; case for being a “power user” while seeding EU/UK alternatives.

43:54 – Can startups sell to government?
Procurement is the moat for incumbents; call for sandboxes, fast paths, and small experiments.

50:01 – What is digital sovereignty (really)?
Acting without others’ permission; Europe’s dilemma: US defence, China manufacturing, and now US AI.

52:07 – China’s playbook
Back sectors, unleash brutal competition (EVs), let winners emerge—then scale.

57:33 – Follow the money
EU pension funds underweight EU VC; stop funding US dominance if we want sovereignty.

Fast takeaways

* Nvidia remains the bellwether, but the growth rate is normalising at hyperscale.
* Apple vs CMA = overdue competition questions, but don’t fight 2010’s war in 2025 - aim rules at AI.
* Sovereignty ≠ autarky: diversify dependencies, go big on adoption, and grow local apps/infra.
* Procurement reform (sandboxes, smaller tickets) is the cheapest way to catalyse EU/UK AI champions

For the real news behind the headlines affecting European venture.

Hosts: Dan Bowyer & Mads Jensen, with Joe Knowles from Smedvig Ventures

(01:15) US vs. Europe in Wealth Creation
US dominates wealth & compounders due to internet hyperscalers.
Europe: strong talent, growing startups, but weaker late-stage funding & exits.
Pension fund restrictions and lack of capital allocation are core structural issues.

(12:10) AI Race & Europe’s Challenge
US likely to win again; Europe risks falling far behind.
Strategic gaps: compute, energy costs, slow policy response.

(13:05) M&A Boom
H1 2025: ~$100bn in deals (+155% YoY), led by Google–Wiz ($32bn).
Hot areas: AI code gen, security, vertical apps.
Europe well-placed in application-layer M&A and AI-enabled services.
Exits recycle capital → critical for VC ecosystem health.

(21:21) Defence Tech Awakening
Porsche & Deutsche Telekom launching €500m fund; Lakestar raising €250m.
Cultural shift in Germany: mainstream corporates backing defence/dual-use.
Small monetarily, but signals a tide change.

(31:21) Energy & Batteries
Breakthroughs: lithium recycling (97%), sodium-ion at $10/kWh, EU gigafactories planned.
Europe must cut energy costs (4x US levels).
Nuclear, deregulation, and better storage key for AI competitiveness.

(35:06) AI Corner
GPT-5: Faster, unified model, free to ChatGPT’s 700M users. Incremental but strong in coding.
Perplexity vs. Chrome: DOJ may force Chrome divestiture; Perplexity rumored buyer (PR stunt?).
Economics: OpenAI at $500bn valuation despite $5bn losses; Anthropic ARR exploding ($1bn → $5bn in 7 months).

(42:15) Chips & Geopolitics
US restricting Nvidia chips to China; Trump proposes tariffed exports.
Europe’s Chips Act stuck with outdated tech; Intel project canceled.
Urgent need for “Chips 2.0” and partnerships with TSMC/Nvidia/ASML.

(48:03) Closing Notes
Italy’s record H1 (€655m raised).
Europe’s momentum building across defence, energy, and venture.

Upside #52 The weekly podcast for all things European venture, startups and investing. Each week we look behind the headlines for the real news affecting our ecosystem.

VC Hosts: Mads, Andrew & Dan

This week:
Seed-to-Series A: harder or hype?
Germany’s €100B Deutschlandfonds
UK interest rate cut
OECD’s corporate investment warning
EU Chips Act 2.0 - 1.0 #fail
AI Corner – GPT-5, Anthropic’s advances, open-source wars
Deal of the Week

00:50 – Series A: Out of Reach? Really?
US: Avg. 2.5 years to Series A, down to 11% graduation rate. UK/Europe: ~18 months, higher graduation rates, but smaller rounds. AI reshaping funding pace; bridge rounds at record levels. Overhang from 2021–22 funding glut being flushed out. Carta data shows improving graduation rates. Labels distort. Under-capitalisation as a European challenge.

07:59 – Germany’s €100B Deutschlandfonds - Be More German
Fund to secure strategic sectors: defence, energy, raw materials. Leverages €10B public → target €100B private. Germany’s growth stagnation since 2019 needs reversal.

18:35 – UK Autumn Budget Of Misery
Likely tax rises despite Labour’s pledges - risk making UK unattractive for VC & startups. Millionaire exodus, low PE carried interest returns signal concern.

22:09 – UK Interest Rate Cut Says What?
BOE cuts from 4.25% → 4% despite sticky inflation (3.6% → rising to 4%). Growth fears outweigh inflation fight – signals economic fragility. Will lower rates make VC relatively more attractive?

23:29 – OECD: Weak Corporate Investment Is Bad News
Investment still 20% below pre-GFC trends; physical asset investment lagging. Productivity stagnation since 2008. Corporates prioritising dividends over long-term growth.

40:11 – EU Chips Act 2.0 - Can We, Should We?
Act 1 mega fail: Missed 20% market share goal; may hit only 5% by 2030. Intel exit, focus on low-end chips, global oversupply, poor US trade terms. Need to attract TSMC/Samsung for cutting-edge fabs. Europe must avoid “please everyone” industrial policy. Chip demand will keep growing; still time to compete.

50:35 – Mega AI Corner
GPT-5 “soon” Anthropic’s Claude 4.1 leading in reliability. OpenAI launches first open-source model since GPT-2. Mega-rounds: OpenAI $8B, Mistral $10B, Perplexity raising. Open vs. closed source. IP & “decomposition” debate:

1:04:04 – Deal of the Week
Clay – $100M at $3.1B; widely used contact intelligence tool.
n8n – Valuation surges past €2B amid investor frenzy.
Voltrac – Spanish autonomous electric tractor; 70% fewer parts, strong ROI.
AI in politics: Sweden’s PM admits using ChatGPT for second opinions.

Recorded 7 August 2025

Upside is for anyone interested in the European tech and startup ecosystem. We discuss the real stories that live behind the headlines.

Recorded: Friday August 1st 2025
Hosts: VCs - Mads, Lomax, and Dan

00:50 – Big Tech Earnings Blowouts
Massive Meta and MS uplift. Massive efficiency gains via AI, despite headcount cuts. Microsoft: $13B AI cloud run rate. Growth driven by CoPilot and Azure.

11:20 – Fundamentally Flawed Figures
Inflation sticky around 2.9%. Rates stuck. Why equity markets remain bullish despite macro pressure. AI productivity gains seen as the buffer against high rates. Not the dot-com?

17:42 – Europe’s No Mag7
The sobering gap, but optimism for emerging EU-based players. Nurture “green shoots” of European innovation.

18:34 – Markets - Figma IPO – Is SaaS Back?
Massive Day 1 pop: from \$20B to \$65B market cap. 91% gross margin, 132% NDR, strong enterprise traction. Optimism for SaaS exits and public market appetite.

26:27 – Markets - Anthropic vs. Figma – AI Valuations in Context
Anthropic at \$170B valuation (\~30x revenue).Contrasted with Figma’s 60x multiple. SaaS more stable; AI still in sandbox.

27:23 – Markets - Return of Risk Appetite: Firefly & Space IPOs
Firefly targeting a $5B IPO despite revenue.

29:26 – Liberation Day 2.0 – Trump’s Trade Deal with the EU**
EU commits to $750B in US energy, $600B in US manufacturing investment. Concern over EU sovereignty and realism of enforcement.

37:54 – Implications for European Startups
Software firms largely unaffected. Hardware or hybrid firms need to rethink supply chains.Consumer hardware most at risk from tariffs.

40:17 – Geopolitical Signalling and the Long Game
EU’s long-term strategy will shift towards self-reliance and defence. Upside for local tech ecosystems.

41:23 – AI Corner – Latest Deals & Developments.
Anthropic: From $1B to $6B ARR in months. $5B raise underway.
Alibaba: Launches Claude Code competitor for 1/60th the cost.
Cognigy (Germany): Acquired for $1B by NICE (CX automation).
n8n: Open source automation tool now valued at \$1.5B.
OpenAI Study Mode: Personalised learning agents; education disruption incoming.

47:26 – Is Germany Becoming Europe’s AI Leader?
Germany, France, and the UK all seeing strong AI momentum. European AI isn’t centralised – strength lies in distributed hubs.

50:01 – Why Billion-Dollar Exits Are No Longer a Big Deal
Cognigy, Oxford Ionics → seen as “modest” compared to US mega-deals. Yet: exits like these power Europe’s VC ecosystem - billion-dollar exits still matter.

51:00 – Project Europe – What Europe Needs
Harry Stebbings’ “Project Europe”: €200k per startup, under-25 founders.6 companies in batch one: drones, brain-computer interfaces, cybersecurity, robotics. Focused on deep tech and hard problems – not consumer fluff. A bet on Europe’s technical edge and early-stage ecosystem.

56:30 – Challenges Ahead for Project Europe
Accelerators attract top-tier founders? Signalling risk? Success will require time, patient capital, and structural support.

63:57 – Stopping the Brain Drain
EU founders often register in the US, but real drain is sub-10%. IPO path must be restored in EU. Public markets offer cheaper capital vs. growth equity.

65:30 – Deal(s) of the Week
CyberArk acquired by Palo Alto Networks for $25B
Project Q (Germany) raises €7.5M for battlefield software. One to watch.

Upside - for the real stories behind the headlines affecting European Venture.

In this week's episode:

• AI in Public Services - OpenAI and the UK govt sign deal
• The US vs UK AI plans - how do they compare?
• Stablecoins - what are they really and why are they not in the UK?
• Deepmind wins the IMO maths competition - so what?
• Deal of the Week

01:50 – AI in UK Government and Public Services
UK government signs an MOU with OpenAI to explore AI in public services.
Introduction of “Humphrey,” a ChatGPT-powered assistant for civil servants.

03:21 – Will AI in Public Services Work?
NHS could be a testbed for AI adoption, potentially with citizen opt-ins for faster treatments using AI technologies.

05:26 – UK AI Plan and Public Sector Productivity
UK’s AI Opportunities Plan.
Potential AI use cases: fraud prevention and efficiency in administrative tasks.

08:24 – Challenges in Government AI Implementation

09:27 – AI in NHS & Healthcare
Debate on AI’s role in healthcare

11:46 – UK Sovereignty & AI Partnerships
Concerns about reliance on US AI companies (OpenAI, Anthropic).

13:03 – Is Reliance on US AI a Problem?
Discussion on whether the UK should build its own foundational AI models.

16:31 – National AI Strategies
Debate on the UK government’s responsibility to invest heavily in domestic AI.
Comparison to the UK aerospace industry and state-backed R&D.

19:26 – Comparing US and UK AI Plans
Overview of both strategies:
US: Innovation, leadership, and global dominance.
UK: Sovereignty, public sector benefits, and homegrown champions.

22:24 – Key Differences Between US and UK AI Approaches

27:47 – What Should the UK Do Differently?
Invest in national AI infrastructure. Mandate “buy UK first” for AI solutions.

33:31 – AI in Large Organizations
Norway’s sovereign wealth fund sees 20% efficiency gains using AI (Claude).

36:01 – Transition to Stablecoins
What they are and why they matter.

41:02 – Dollar Dominance via Stablecoins
Stablecoins as a strategic tool to extend USD dominance.

48:25 – Future of Stablecoins
How stablecoins will reshape DeFi, cross-border transactions, and payments.

52:27 – AI Excels at Mathematics
Google DeepMind and OpenAI achieve gold-level performance at the IMO (International Mathematical Olympiad). Significance: AI is moving from computation to creative problem-solving and advanced reasoning.

55:47 – Implications of AI in Math & Science
AI’s ability to solve complex math problems signals breakthroughs in R&D and engineering.

58:14 – Philosophical Questions on AI Reasoning
Debate on whether AI’s reasoning is “synthetic” or genuinely creative.
AI’s utility matters more than its internal mechanics.

59:33 – Deal of the Week

Keywords: AI, public services, OpenAI, UK government, healthcare, stablecoins, financial system, mathematics, funding, trade deals.

UPSIDE - For the week's *real news* behind the headlines affecting European venture.

If curious about startups, investing, venture capital, innovation, AI, and all things going on in and around Europe - that's what this weekly roundup is all about.

Hosts: Lomax from Outsized Ventures with Mads and myself from SuperSeed VC

On this week's show:

04:02 – Shout out for EU Inc and The 28th Regime
Legal fragmentation in Europe increases friction and costs for pre-seed and seed funding. Comparison to US (Delaware + SAFE) vs. Europe’s notary-heavy systems.
Potential savings of €350–500M annually by reducing legal overhead. ESOP (employee share options) complexity highlighted as a major barrier.

09:55 – The United States of Europe
EU Inc. could be a “small first step” toward a unified European market post-Brexit. Lobbying from notaries and national interests creates significant resistance. Watered down is as good as not at all.

15:14 – AI Corner: Huge AI news this week
Mira Murati’s new startup raises $2B from A16Z, Nvidia, AMD. China’s Moonshot AI (Kimi 2) - 1T parameter open-source LLM outperforming Anthropic’s Opus 4 on coding tasks.
Europe is trailing the US and China in foundational AI, but vertical AI and apps offer big opportunities.

25:28 – The Application Layer Boom
Lovable Raised $200M at $1.8B valuation** with 75M ARR in 8 months.
AI application companies like Tandem Health and Legora are scaling rapidly.

31:51 – Apple Rumoured to Acquire Mistral?
$15B acquisition? Would be the largest European AI exit, but raises sovereignty concerns in France.

36:12 – UK Government Reforms
Rachel Reeves’ speeches: Streamlined reporting, pushing pension funds into riskier assets, and supporting LSE listings - symbolic or game-changing?

42:21 – Crypto Week in the US
Bitcoin hits $120K as three major US crypto acts debated: Clarity Act, Genius Act, Anti-CBDC Act. Europe already has MiCA regulations but lacks a cohesive narrative. But should we have our own Crypto week?

48:19 – European VC at 10-Year Low
2025 projections: $10B VC capital raised. Solutions: Unlock pension capital, simplify retail VC access, and recycle returns from big exits like Mistral.

54:28 – Deal of the Week: Numan
Men’s D2C health startup: Raised $57M (30M equity + 27M debt). Pivoted to GLP-1-based weight-loss products, doubling revenue to $90M in 2024.

56:16 – Closing Thoughts.