Founder and CEO of APAC Advisors Steve Okun joins Jim and Ray to talk about the suddenly raging trade war between the U.S. and China and what kind of impact it may have on the global trading system.

Steve observes that international investment is largely frozen due to the uncertainty about what the U.S. goals are, which tariffs are temporary versus permanent, and whether the U.S. and China can come to a negotiated settlement.

Steve also explains that while China has certainly exploited its advantage in manufacturing, the U.S. has long enjoyed its own advantage in the services sectors–such as entertainment, finance, health, and tourism. He says these U.S. industries may suffer under a more restrictive trade environment.

The discussion also turns to international organizations and groupings like the World Trade Organization, Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and whether they are losing influence in the global system as the big powers go their own way.

Steve then speculates how U.S-China trade talks may proceed - and what cards Donald Trump and Xi Jinping believe they still have to play. Regardless, he expects continued volatility to continue as a new normal moving forward.

Follow Steve Okun on his very popular LinkedIn profile, or at his consultancy, APAC Advisors.

Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast; or on LinkedIn or BlueSky at our show title, Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?

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Our podcast is produced by Ian Ellis-Jones and IEJ Media (on X @ianellisjones or LinkedIn).

This podcast is sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.

Author and Chatham House Associate Fellow Bill Hayton joins the podcast to explain how Vietnam has embarked on its own campaign to build artificial islands in the South China Sea, a decade after China pursued its own campaign.

While Vietnam’s new artificial island bases will alter the South China Sea balance of power, China’s response has been muted, especially compared to its aggressive opposition to nearly every minor move the Philippines makes.

Bill also discusses Vietnam’s concerns over the large-scale damming of the Mekong River. He explains how the river delta is crucial to Vietnam's agriculture and economy, but that upstream damming in China, Laos and other countries has caused substantial disruption.

Turning to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Bill unpacks why it has been ineffective in addressing external and transnational threats, such as Chinese aggression in the South China Sea and the Mekong River.

Bill also discusses the potential of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs to significantly disrupt Vietnam’s economy, as well as Vietnam’s relations with China under its new leader, To Lam.

Follow Bill Hayton on X, @bill_hayton, and check out his well-regarded books on Vietnam, China, and the South China Sea on his website, billhayton.com.

Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast; or on LinkedIn or BlueSky at our show title, Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?

Follow Ray Powell on X (@GordianKnotRay) or on LinkedIn.

Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn.

Our podcast is produced by Ian Ellis-Jones and IEJ Media (on X @ianellisjones or LinkedIn).

This podcast is sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.

In our second post-“Liberation Day” episode we are joined by John Goyer, Executive Director for Southeast Asia for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, to discuss the impact of America’s now-suspended tariff increases on Southeast Asian countries and on the U.S.

John observes that American consumers are likely to experience significant price increases if these tariffs go into effect, since the reason U.S. businesses import from Southeast Asia is because it can get goods less expensively than if they are made in the United States. Meanwhile, both stock and bond markets have reacted very dramatically to each new announcement, and some economists are warning that the U.S. could tip into a recession if they go into full effect.

Southeast Asian countries are already navigating a complicated relationship with China, whose economy has been relying on exports. Beijing’s fraught trade relationship with the U.S. has left it with huge surpluses of goods, many of which have been dumped into neighboring countries. China has also been using Southeast Asia as a place to trans-ship goods to avoid U.S. tariffs.

Vietnam, whose tariffs were announced at the rate of 46 percent, actually has fairly low tariffs on U.S. goods, so will need to find other ways to satisfy the Trump Administration. This may include reducing restrictive policies and regulations or purchasing more U.S. goods.

While some Association of Southeast Asian Nations countries have suggested a unified response, ASEAN has not been effective in moving quickly as a bloc. As a result, each country is likely to seek its own deal.

On the question of who the winners might be in a trade war, John observes that it’s not easy to move manufacturing. These are complex, expensive decisions, and companies will be deliberate and measured in their responses.

Learn more about John Goyer at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, or follow him on LinkedIn.

Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast; or on LinkedIn or BlueSky at our show title, Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?

Follow Ray Powell on X (@GordianKnotRay) or on LinkedIn.

Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn.

Our podcast is produced by IEJ Media, sharing news that matters on statecraft & instruments of national power. Follow IEJ Media on X (@iejmedia), and follow our producer Ian Ellis-Jones on X (@ianellisjones) or on LinkedIn.

This podcast is sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.