the WiRE - Weekly Roundup

著者： the WiRE - the Week in Real Estate
無料で聴く

  • サマリー

  • Your go-to summary of the top stories shaping the real estate industry this week.
    © 2024 The WiRE Podcast Network. All rights reserved. This podcast and its content, including audio, text, and graphics, are the intellectual property of The WiRE Podcast Network. Unauthorized reproduction, distribution, or use is strictly prohibited without prior written consent. For permissions or inquiries, visit thewirefm.com.
    続きを読む 一部表示

あらすじ・解説

Your go-to summary of the top stories shaping the real estate industry this week.
© 2024 The WiRE Podcast Network. All rights reserved. This podcast and its content, including audio, text, and graphics, are the intellectual property of The WiRE Podcast Network. Unauthorized reproduction, distribution, or use is strictly prohibited without prior written consent. For permissions or inquiries, visit thewirefm.com.
エピソード
  • The Great Housing Heist: How Tariffs & Uncertainty Are Gutting Homeowner Dreams

    The Great Housing Heist: How Tariffs & Uncertainty Are Gutting Homeowner Dreams
    2025/04/07

    Key Discussion Points:

    Generational Shift in Home Buying:In 2025, Baby Boomers (ages 60-78) constitute the largest cohort of U.S. home buyers at 42%, surpassing Millennials whose share dropped to 29% (from 38% the previous year). Generation X remained steady at 24%.

    Younger boomers (60-69) represented 26% of recent buyers, and older boomers (70-78) 16%.

    Reasons for Boomer purchases include the desire to be closer to friends and family, retirement, and the desire for a smaller home.

    Younger boomers are more likely to buy in small towns, while older boomers prefer suburbs.

    Baby Boomers also make up the largest share of home sellers at 53%. They are selling to move closer to loved ones or because their homes are too large.

    Housing Market Trends in 2025:Supply is increasing, with total unsold inventory up significantly compared to the previous year. New listings are also higher.

    Pending home sales are slightly above last year's pace.

    Home price pressures are weakening, and the trend suggests prices could turn negative soon. The national average price increase is minimal, and some markets are already seeing price declines.

    Rents on single-family houses have also turned negative year-over-year, aligning with the downward pressure on home prices.

    The median price of pending home sales was around $395,000.

    Monthly housing payments hit a record high in 2025, with the median monthly mortgage payment reaching $2,802 at a 6.65% mortgage rate for the four weeks ending March 30, 2025.

    Mortgage rate stability around 6.6% may be helping to ease buyer concerns and support sales volume. However, significant decreases are not imminent.

    Pending home sales saw a 2.0% uptick in February 2025, but regional performance varied. All four regions reported year-over-year declines in contract signings.

    Impact of Economic Factors:President Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs have the potential to impact the U.S. housing and mortgage markets. Following their commencement, mortgage rates saw a slight decrease, potentially increasing homebuyers' purchasing power while also amplifying economic uncertainty.

    A slowing economy and potential consumer fears about recession, tariffs, and job security could offset any positive impact of lower mortgage rates on buyer demand.

    March job growth came in stronger than expected, but this was before the full impact of the new tariffs and federal government layoffs.

    Other Relevant Factors:The belief in "forever homes" is dwindling.

    Brokerages are facing uncertainty following the Clear Cooperation decision.

    New data suggests private listings offer "no benefits to sellers".

    The US needs an estimated 40 million more low-cost homes, indicating a significant affordability issue.

    The share of condos selling below list price hit a 5-year high in February 2025.

    Real estate agents and brokers remain the top resource for home buyers and sellers across all generations.

    Next Steps for Further Analysis:

    Investigate the regional differences in home buying trends, particularly focusing on markets with significant shifts in generational activity.

    Analyze the potential long-term effects of the tariffs on housing affordability and buyer sentiment.

    Examine the relationship between mortgage rate stability and sales volume in the current economic climate.

    Consider the implications of the growing housing supply and weakening price pressures for different segments of the market.

    Research the reasons behind the decline in "forever home" beliefs and its potential impact on housing demand.

    Evaluate the impact of the Clear Cooperation Policy changes on market dynamics.

    This episode provides a crucial snapshot of the evolving real estate landscape in 2025, highlighting significant shifts and potential challenges for both buyers and sellers.
    続きを読む 一部表示
    23 分
  • Secret House Listings: Are First-Time Buyers Locked Out?

    Secret House Listings: Are First-Time Buyers Locked Out?
    2025/03/31
    Key Discussion Points:1. Private Listing Networks (PLNs) and Market Fragmentation:The growth of PLNs, potentially aided by NAR's "delayed marketing" policy, could lead to an increasingly fragmented housing marketplace.First-time buyers are likely to "suffer the most" if the home-buying process becomes more complex due to limited publicly accessible listings.Brokerages like Compass are actively building exclusive inventory, with over 20,000 listings on their website that can't be found elsewhere, including more than 8,500 "private exclusives" as of March 2025. This is a significant jump from roughly 5,500 just a couple of months prior.In some regions, like the Bay Area, Compass has amassed significant market share. In San Francisco, Compass agents had roughly 24% of the city's listings in January 2025, with 516 in their Private Exclusives channel.Keller Williams' largest franchise, KW GO, announced $1 billion in private inventory across its territory, largely focused on Texas metros, in January.Concerns exist regarding market transparency when a significant portion of inventory is kept off the open market.Despite the growth of PLNs, most private listings eventually end up on the MLS. In Bright MLS's coverage area, "nine out of ten listings — that start as private listings or in-offices do end up getting marketed broadly on the MLS," according to Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS.Private listings only account for about 4% of all listings in the Bright MLS territory, which includes Maryland, Washington, D.C., and parts of New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia and West Virginia.Experts suggest the current housing shortfall is primarily due to restrictive local zoning, high borrowing and construction costs, and the mortgage rate lock-in effect, not solely the increase in private listings.2. Mortgage Rates and Affordability:Keeping an eye on economic factors like growth, inflation, and government borrowing can provide hints about where mortgage rates are headed.NAR projects mortgage rates to fall moderately this year, averaging 6.4% in 2025 and 6.1% in 2026, as the Federal Reserve forecasts slower economic growth.However, the current high national debt will prevent mortgage rates from falling drastically to the 4%-to-5% range seen during President Trump’s first term, according to NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.Despite potential rate decreases, monthly housing payments hit an all-time high in the four weeks ending March 23, 2025, with a median of $2,807 at a 6.67% mortgage rate, a 5.3% year-over-year increase.Pending sales were down 3.6% compared to a year ago in late March 2025, indicating a potentially subdued spring season, partly due to high prices and economic uncertainty. However, weekly pending home sales finally exceeded 2024 levels in late March, suggesting a potential turning point.New home sales rebounded by 1.8% in February 2025, particularly in relatively more affordable regions. The median price of new houses sold was $414,500, down 1.5% from a year ago.Inventory of unsold homes is rising, up 30% year-over-year. Similarly, new listings were up 15.5% compared to the previous year.3. The Impact of Off-MLS Sales:Selling off the MLS costs home sellers in communities of color thousands of dollars in lost value.Homes sold in ZIP codes where a majority of household heads are Black, Hispanic, Asian American, Pacific Islander, or Native American typically sell for 3.2% less than MLS-listed homes, resulting in a $9,851 loss per off-market listing.In contrast, majority white neighborhoods experience a smaller loss of 1.2% or $3,694 per home for off-market listings.Zillow estimates homebuyers and agents lost out on more than $1 billion in 2023 and 2024 when they didn't use MLSs.Hispanic and Black home sellers are more frequently advised to list their property off the MLS, with nearly three-quarters reporting such recommendations compared to only 24% of white sellers.Zillow is a vocal supporter of the Clear Cooperation Policy (CCP), which mandates that a property be listed on the MLS within 24 hours of publicly marketing it. NAR is expected to vote soon on a potential repeal of CCP.Zillow's study defined privately listed sales as those marketed privately and seemingly submitted to the MLS only once a purchase contract was in place.4. Regional Market Variations:Redfin identified the hottest neighborhoods of 2025, with New York and the Midwest dominating the top spots. These rankings are based on factors like year-over-year changes in median sale price, median days on market, change in home sales, and change in median views per listing. Examples include Prospect Heights and Clinton Hill, NY; Campton Hills and St. Charles, IL; and Polk Gulch and Russian Hill, CA.Florida home sales are still down year-over-year, indicating a more challenging market compared to some other regions like Texas.Median sale price changes vary significantly across metro areas. For the four weeks ending March 23, 2025, ...
    続きを読む 一部表示
    18 分
  • Inventory Surge Meets Economic Uncertainty: Navigating the Shifting 2025 Housing Market

    Inventory Surge Meets Economic Uncertainty: Navigating the Shifting 2025 Housing Market
    2025/03/24
    This episode provides a comprehensive analysis of the current state of the 2025 housing market, characterized by a notable increase in inventory juxtaposed with prevailing economic uncertainties. We delve into the latest data on listings, sales, and prices, exploring the factors influencing buyer and seller behavior. Additionally, we address critical issues such as racial disparities in homeownership and the role of mortgage rates in the evolving market landscape.Disclaimer: The information discussed in this podcast is based on data available as of March 20, 2025, and is intended for informational purposes only. Real estate market conditions are subject to change. Listeners should consult with qualified professionals for personalized financial and real estate advice.Key Discussion Points:Surging Housing Inventory:Recent data reveals a significant uptick in newly listed single-family homes, with 68,000 in a single week.This marks a substantial 7% increase compared to the previous week and 14% more than the same period last year.The current level of unsold new listings is the highest mid-March figure since before the pandemic in 2020.This break from the post-pandemic housing shortage suggests a potential shift in seller behavior, possibly driven by economic concerns or the release of pent-up shadow inventory.Projections indicate that inventory could grow by 18% to 19% by the end of 2025.Evolving Demand Dynamics:The number of pending home sales is showing positive momentum this spring, with 66,000 single-family homes entering contract, a 4% weekly rise.Current home sales are roughly on par with levels from the previous year.A potential shift in momentum is anticipated, partly due to current mortgage rates being approximately 50 basis points lower than earlier in 2024.However, there's a trend of fewer immediate sales, indicating that buyers are exercising patience, seeking optimal deals and financing options.Consequently, the time homes spend on the market is generally increasing.Pricing Landscape:Pricing indicators for 2025 show elevated pressures compared to March in recent years.The significant price reductions observed in the fall of 2022 serve as a leading indicator for subsequent home price declines.As spring progresses, price cuts are expected to become more prevalent, particularly for listings that haven't garnered offers.The current absolute level of price cuts is notable, suggesting a cautious pricing environment.Overall, the data on price reductions does not currently signal any upward pressure on home prices in the near term.February 2025 Existing-Home Sales Data:Existing-home sales experienced a 4.2% increase in February, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.26 million.Despite this monthly gain, sales were still down 1.2% from February 2024.The median existing-home sales price rose by 3.8% year-over-year to $398,400, marking the 20th consecutive month of annual price increases.The inventory of unsold existing homes increased by 5.1% from January to 1.24 million units at the end of February, equivalent to a 3.5-month supply.Regionally, the South saw a 4.4% monthly increase in sales but a 4.0% annual decrease, with a median price of $358,800 (up 1.9% year-over-year).The West witnessed a significant 13.3% monthly jump in sales, matching the level from a year prior, with a median price of $614,600 (up 3.6% year-over-year).Persistent Racial Gaps in Homeownership:In 2023, the Black homeownership rate achieved the largest annual gain across all racial groups, reaching 44.7% (+0.6 percentage points).However, this rate remains substantially lower than that of White (72.4%), Asian (63.4%), and Hispanic (51.0%) individuals.The disparity between Black and White homeownership rates has unfortunately widened over the past decade.The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) is actively advocating for policy solutions aimed at bridging these homeownership gaps, including robust enforcement of fair housing laws, down payment assistance programs, updates to credit scoring models, and the implementation of special purpose credit programs.Developments in New Construction:While housing starts demonstrated an 11.2% rebound in February, following a sluggish January, there's a noted slowdown in permits and completions, coupled with a decline in builder optimism.Federal Reserve and Mortgage Rate Outlook:Mortgage rates have shown relative stability recently.The Federal Reserve has maintained current interest rates and indicated the potential for future rate cuts later in the year.Recent economic projections from the Fed suggest a slight upward revision in inflation forecasts and a downward adjustment in economic growth expectations, while characterizing tariff impacts as likely one-time events.Conclusion: The 2025 housing market is navigating a complex environment marked by increasing inventory and economic uncertainty. While some indicators point to potential demand recovery, pricing pressures remain muted....
    続きを読む 一部表示
    20 分

the WiRE - Weekly Roundupに寄せられたリスナーの声

カスタマーレビュー：以下のタブを選択することで、他のサイトのレビューをご覧になれます。

Audible.co.jp

Amazon.co.jp
レビューはまだありません。