検索キーワード： "Tim Harford" 衛生・健康

Today we think statistics are the enemy, numbers used to mislead and confuse us. That’s a mistake, Tim Harford says in The Data Detective. We shouldn’t be suspicious of statistics - we need to understand what they mean and how they can improve our lives: they are, at heart, human behavior seen through the prism of numbers and are often “the only way of grasping much of what is going on around us”.

Everything we know about solving the world’s problems is wrong. Out: Plans, experts and above all, leaders. In: Adapting - improvise rather than plan; fail, learn, and try again. In this groundbreaking new book, Tim Harford shows how the world’s most complex and important problems - including terrorism, climate change, poverty, innovation, and the financial crisis - can only be solved from the bottom up by rapid experimenting and adapting.

The urge to be tidy seems to be rooted deep in the human psyche. Many of us feel threatened by anything that is vague, unplanned, scattered around or hard to describe. We find comfort in having a script to rely on, a system to follow, in being able to categorise and file away. We all benefit from tidy organisation - up to a point. A large library needs a reference system. Global trade needs the shipping container. Scientific collaboration needs measurement units. But the forces of tidiness have marched too far.

Cognitive scientist Professor Steven Pinker has spent his life thinking about thinking, and now he wants us to join him. With the aid of his critical thinking toolkit, he hopes to help us make smarter choices, become more rational, gain a greater understanding of the confused world we live in—and maybe even become better citizens. In this fascinating series, produced in partnership with the Open University, he examines the different ways the human brain can be tripped up, from understanding probability to the difference between correlation and causation.

Penguin presents the audiobook edition of The Mind Is Flat, written and read by Nick Chater. Most of us assume that our thoughts, desires and behaviour arise from the murky depths of our minds, and if only we could access this inner world we could truly understand ourselves. For more than a century, psychologists, psychiatrists and neuroscientists have struggled, using methods from psychotherapy to brain scans, to discover what lies below the surface of our minds.

In this bold, optimistic book, the authors of the best-selling Big Data show how humans have a unique cognitive ability to frame - to create mental models that allow us to spot patterns, make predictions and grasp new situations. While computers may now excel at reasoning and judgement, framing is unique to humans. This book is the first guide to mastering an essential skill for the 21st century.

We make, and worry about, a thousand big and little decisions during our waking hours. Too often these decisions are dictated by concerns or beliefs about our world that simply aren't true. With precision and wit, award-winning public health expert Timothy Caulfield analyses the innumerable cultural, social and psychological forces that shape these misperceptions. Caulfield provides a scientifically informed way out of this mess - Relax will do exactly what the title suggests and help put your mind at ease.