After 138 episodes and almost four years to the day since we recorded our first one, Will and Richard have decided to take a short break.

We do plan to continue Bubble Trouble, and we are not short of bubbles that are causing trouble, but we want to take time to recharge and reflect on how we can make the show better than ever.

We hope you’ll look back through the archives as there are so many episodes that are every bit as relevant today as they were in 2021 when we started. We’ll have word soon on when you can expect new episodes, but thanks so much for listening.

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Who doesn’t like to talk about Twitter and Tweets? Word of mouth (or tweet) is the secret sauce of its success. But has it ever been successful? And if it hasn’t, how do you gauge the impact of Elon Musk’s shock therapy over the past two years? Journalist Kurt Wagner joins to share his deep dive profile of the tortured history of Twitter. [Repeat from May, 2024]

For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)

This episode of Bubble Trouble features a conversation with Bloomberg journalist Kurt Wagner, author of 'Battle for the Bird,' a book about Twitter's tumultuous history and evolution, particularly under Elon Musk's ownership. The hosts, independent analyst Richard Kramer and economist Will Page, delve into Twitter’s origins, its struggle to monetize effectively compared to giants like Meta, and the significant influence of Jack Dorsey’s leadership style on the platform's direction. They discuss the platform's missed opportunities, such as Vine and Periscope, and how it became a place where 'good ideas go to die.' The discussion also covers Musk's takeover, his attempts to transform Twitter into 'X', and the challenges of balancing free speech with the need for content moderation and advertiser appeal. Wagner shares insights on the potential future of 'X', the impact of Musk's leadership on the platform's advertising and user engagement, and the skepticism surrounding the 'everything app' concept Musk envisions.

00:00 Introduction

01:02 Part One

01:02 Deep Dive with Kurt Wagner: The Story of Twitter

02:36 The Origins and Evolution of Twitter

06:20 Twitter's User Base and Business Model Explored

09:10 The Challenges of Twitter's Business Model

14:10 Board Dynamics and Google's Influence on Twitter

18:03 Extravagant Spending and Corporate Culture at Twitter

21:13 Reflections on Twitter's Stock Performance

23:47 The Almost Disney-Twitter Deal: A Glimpse into Corporate Negotiations

24:29 Twitter's Quest for a Savior and Its Struggle for Independence

25:53 Missed Opportunities: The Story of Vine and Periscope

27:27 Part Two

27:27 Transition to Part Two: The Elon Musk Era at Twitter

27:49 The Challenges of Rebranding Twitter to X and Musk's Controversial Leadership

28:32 The Impact of Elon Musk's Actions on Twitter's Ad Revenue and Brand Safety

36:52 The Struggle with Bots and Spam: Has It Gotten Worse?

40:06 Free Speech Under Musk: A Double-Edged Sword

44:26 The Everything App Ambition: A Skeptical View

46:33 Closing Thoughts and Acknowledgements

47:01 Credits

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This week let’s settle back to our sofas, grab our remote controls and work out what to watch with Doug Shapiro, among the most prominent voices in the world of television and its tech disrupters. His clear and concise work, all available to watch and read on his website is the go to for thousands.

For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)

In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts delve into the intricacies of media disruption with Doug Shapiro, a prominent voice in TV, economics, and tech. Celebrating over a century of their show's success, they explore topics such as the supply and demand curve changes, the potential of AI in content creation, and the future of media companies amidst technological advancements. Shapiro offers insights into the tectonic shifts affecting the industry, from the rise of new media over traditional formats to the economic implications of infinite content in a world of fixed demand. The discussion also touches on intellectual property, the ethics surrounding AI, and the challenges faced by incumbents in adapting to rapid innovation.

00:00 Introduction

00:42 Part One

00:49 Guest Introduction: Doug Shapiro

01:12 Doug Shapiro's Career Journey

02:12 The Evolution of Media Consumption

03:50 Supply and Demand in Media

07:19 Generative AI and Content Creation

10:32 The Future of Media Distribution

23:09 The Creator Economy and Power Laws

27:13 Part Two

27:30 Hollywood vs. Big Tech

30:00 AI's Impact on Hollywood: A Double-Edged Sword

30:44 Disruption in the Entertainment Industry

31:23 The Future of High-End Content

32:06 AI as a Productivity Tool in Hollywood

32:46 The Rise of AI-Enabled Studios

33:43 Introducing Sora: The Future of Content Creation

35:14 The Turing Test in Video Content

38:22 Local Content vs. Global Tent Poles

40:21 The Copyright Conundrum

41:56 The Dirty Deal: Media and Tech Collusion

48:06 The Fair Use Debate

50:59 Disruption is Hard: Lessons from Netflix

54:22 Concluding Thoughts and Future Outlook

55:42 Credits

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In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page return with guest Dror Poleg, an expert in real estate and economic history. They discuss the volatility expected in 2025, reflections on the work-from-home trend, and the dynamic interplay between geopolitics and everyday life. With insights into real estate bubbles, economic predictions, and the evolving nature of productivity, Dror offers a deep dive into how technological advancements shape our physical and economic world. The conversation also covers topics such as the challenges in the housing market, defense spending, AI investment, and the impact of geopolitical shifts. This episode is packed with thought-provoking discussions and forecasts for the near future.

00:00

00:00 Introduction

00:52 Part One

01:00 Guest Introduction

03:34 Real Estate Market Insights

06:15 Challenges in Urban Development

11:46 Rethinking Productivity and Inequality

19:38 Future of Work and Education

24:06 The Flaw of GDP and Productivity

24:23 Discussing the Book: Mismatch Between Economy and World

26:31 Part Two

26:49 Encouraging Success and Taxing It

28:47 Innovation and Public Investment Funds

33:33 US Government and Defense Spending

43:28 AI and the Future of Compute

46:48 Closing Thoughts and Upcoming Book

49:54 Credits

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This week we get into portfolio theory, or lack of, as for many the rush to big tech and wilful ignorance of everything else Wall Street has to offer seems to be the rule as opposed to the exception. Why is that, and is it sustainable? [Repeat from February, 2024]

For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)

The Magnificent Seven: Unpacking the Impact of Big US Tech Stocks

In this episode, Richard Kramer and Will Page, analysts specializing in financial markets, discuss the 'Magnificent Seven', a term referring to the big US tech companies and their significant market impact. Kramer eloquently illustrates the concentration of wealth within these tech giants and their extensive media coverage, which contributes to their continual growth. They discuss the concept of long tail distributions and how it correlates with a constraint in attention leading to invested interest in just a few companies. They scrutinize the implications of concentrated wealth and potential future industry shifts, emphasizing the need for cautious investment strategies, despite the allure of being swept up in booming tech sectors.

00:01 Introduction

00:48 Part One

00:48 The Role of Big US Tech in Portfolio Theory

03:30 The Magnificent Seven: Who Are They?

07:28 The Long Tail Effect in Financial Markets

22:56 The Investment Thesis: Backing Big Tech

23:13 Part Two

23:25 The Geographic Disparity in Big Tech

38:09 Smoke Signals: Indicators of Market Shifts

41:41 Conclusion: The Future of Big Tech Investments

41:54 Credits

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We have had over 30 episodes of Bubble Trouble this year, and had some real highlights along with a mad world we are living in. And now after a predictions show with Benedict Evans last week, we move on to our own look back to highlight the must-listen shows of 2024 and turn to the top troubles with bubbles to watch out for in 2025.

Will’s favorite shows of 2024:

Richards favorite shows of 2024:

Will’s folder of research reports: HERE

For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)

Bubble Trouble Year-End Review: Top Episodes and Predictions for 2025

00:00 Introduction and Year in Review

00:33 Part One

00:41 Predictions and Highlights of 2024

01:16 Memorable Moments and Listener Feedback

02:44 Bronze Medal: Bill Raduchel’s Insight

04:58 Silver Medal: Duncan Maven and Credit Suisse

07:43 Gold Medal: Law Without Lawyers

11:09 Richard's Oscar Categories

13:48 Social Impact: Fergal Sharky on Water Management

17:36 Market Bubbles and Fiscal Policies

22:13 Closing Thoughts and Part Two Teaser

22:38 Part Two

22:59 Predictions and Skepticism

23:32 AI and the Rationalization of Apps

24:47 Winners and Losers in the AI Era

25:57 The Future of Review Platforms

28:28 Emerging Companies to Watch

35:13 Market Trends and Volatility

40:36 The Crisis in Journalism

44:40 AI Hype vs. Reality

45:57 Closing Thoughts and Reflections

47:14 Credits

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Back by popular demand, returning guest Benedict Evans to help us work out where we’ll be a year from now. This is our first predictions show, and Benedict has been brave enough to lead from the front with his latest presentation AI Eats the World. Will it? And if it does, what sort of indigestion will it bring? We double down on what the next twelve months will bring given the avalanche of “events-dear-boy-events” we’ve witnessed in the last twelve.

For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)

Join hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page in one of the final episodes of 2024 as they team up with independent analyst Richard Kramer and economist and author Will Page, alongside returning guest Benedict Evans. In this prediction-packed episode, the trio dives into the year-long buzz around AI. They dissect the concept of 'AI Eats the World' — exploring if AI truly has the transformative power it's touted to have and what potential pitfalls could arise. From decoding AI trends to the proliferation of machine learning across industries, this episode provides a candid discussion on the future of AI, its impacts, and the upcoming challenges. Plus, they explore legal implications, the role of consultancy giants like Accenture in the AI wave, and the future landscape of professions impacted by AI innovations. Don't miss this insightful deep dive into what technology and AI advancements might hold for the year ahead.

00:00 Introduction and Show Setup

00:46 Part One

01:19 Understanding AI and Machine Learning

03:46 AI's Practical Applications

07:06 AI in the Legal Profession

15:58 Jevons Paradox and AI's Future Impact

21:01 Part Two

25:01 Creative Brainstorming with AI

25:11 The Value of Unique Perspectives

25:53 Skepticism Towards Big Consultancies

26:55 Accenture's Role in AI

28:33 Generative AI in Business

31:37 The Democratization of AI

34:02 AI's Impact on Various Industries

41:19 Future of AI in Media and Entertainment

45:51 Closing Thoughts and Reflections

46:38 Credits

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When markets get fooled, stocks get …well, WHACKED, to quote a famous Kramerism. Our audience deserves to know more about volatility - for all the PhDs, MBAs and CFAs working on Wall Street, for all the compliance rules and regulations, why is it that a stock can go from hero to zero so quickly? Why is stability in itself destabilizing? [Repeat from May, 2024]

For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)

Understanding Market Volatility: The Seven Deadly Sins That Get Stocks Whacked

In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosted by independent analyst Richard Kramer and economist Will Page, the duo delves into the intricacies of stock market volatility and the factors that lead to significant drops in stock values, often referred to as getting 'whacked.' They explore why financial markets remain volatile despite compliance rules and thorough analysis by Wall Street's experts. Using recent examples like Duolingo and Double Verify, they highlight how sentiment, market expectations, and artificial intelligence fears influence stock performance. They introduce the concept of the seven deadly sins—ranging from expectations management to fake it till you make it—that companies and analysts commit, causing stocks to tank. The discussion covers essential themes like the role of credibility, influence of peer performance, external market factors, and the impact of fear and greed. They also touch on larger market dynamics, such as the dominance of tech giants and the influence of algorithmic trading. The episode is both an educational dive into market mechanics and a cautionary tale for investors, emphasizing the importance of understanding broader market sentiments and the potential pitfalls of speculative trading.

00:00 Introduction

01:18 Part One

02:30 Recent Examples of Stocks Getting Whacked

06:08 The Role of Expectations in Market Behavior

10:53 Credibility and Its Impact on Stocks

16:17 The Influence of Peer Groups and Market Share

18:19 Mathematical Models and Black Swans

23:09 Part Two

24:15 The Sheer Size of Companies and Market Impact

25:13 Big Companies and Revenue Growth Challenges

26:33 Market Dynamics and Money Managers

27:04 Thought Experiment: Market Crowding

28:53 Taxing Market Capitalization

34:18 Fear and Greed in Financial Markets

40:11 Unprofitable IPOs and Market Distortions

42:47 Seven Deadly Sins of Stock Trading

46:22 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

46:53 Credits

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