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Markets Recalibrate Odds as Biden's 2024 Nomination Prospects Dim
- 2025/03/28
- 再生時間： 4 分
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あらすじ・解説
Over the past couple days, prediction markets have been busy digesting a flurry of political activity and surprise developments, with several contracts seeing sharp movements and elevated trading volumes. Polymarket, the most liquid platform by far, continues to dominate the prediction space. Its top market this week remains “Who will win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election?”, where Trump leads at 54 cents, Biden trails at 36 cents, and third-party options collectively trade under 10 cents. While these prices haven’t moved dramatically in the past 48 hours, activity surged after Biden’s uneven debate performance last week, which temporarily boosted Trump as high as 58 cents before retreating slightly.
The biggest mover on Polymarket recently is the “Will Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee?” market. Two days ago, this contract had Biden at 87 cents, but following renewed speculation about his mental fitness and growing concern among Democratic insiders, he dipped to as low as 72 cents before recovering slightly to 76 cents as of this morning. This drop happened faster than many expected, signaling increasing doubts among bettors about Biden’s viability. Some traders now favor a brokered convention scenario, with Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris both seeing modest but noticeable upticks.
PredictIt has shown similar shifts, though at a slower pace. Their “2024 Democratic nominee” market still has Biden around 80 cents, but what’s interesting is the rise in volume on alternatives. Newsom moved from 3 to 6 cents over the past 48 hours—still low, but a doubling nonetheless—and some traders on the platform are speculating that insider information might be fueling this surge. The platform’s “Control of the Senate” and “House” contracts remain relatively stable, though Democrats have lost a couple of cents in the Senate control market since Monday, now trading at 47 cents versus Republicans at 52.
Over on Metaculus, which operates as a crowd forecasting site rather than a traditional marketplace, updates are less frequent but still telling. The community’s forecast for the probability that Biden will be the Democratic nominee is now down to 84 percent from 90 percent just a few days ago—a significant adjustment in what’s typically a slow-moving consensus. Similarly, their estimate for the probability of Trump being elected in November has risen to 48 percent, making it effectively a toss-up.
The most interesting pattern in the past 48 hours is this sudden re-evaluation of Biden’s standing. While traders and forecasters have long priced in his incumbency advantage, recent events appear to be shaking that assumption. The speed with which Biden’s nomination probability dropped suggests that market participants are increasingly sensitive to signals that he may not remain the party’s only viable option.
An emerging trend worth watching is the growing role of alternative candidates—especially Newsom and Harris—as proxies for Democratic unease. While the probability of an open convention or last-minute switch remains low, traders seem more willing than ever to hedge that possibility. In short, confidence in the establishment script is starting to wobble, and the markets are signaling it more loudly than before.
The biggest mover on Polymarket recently is the “Will Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee?” market. Two days ago, this contract had Biden at 87 cents, but following renewed speculation about his mental fitness and growing concern among Democratic insiders, he dipped to as low as 72 cents before recovering slightly to 76 cents as of this morning. This drop happened faster than many expected, signaling increasing doubts among bettors about Biden’s viability. Some traders now favor a brokered convention scenario, with Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris both seeing modest but noticeable upticks.
PredictIt has shown similar shifts, though at a slower pace. Their “2024 Democratic nominee” market still has Biden around 80 cents, but what’s interesting is the rise in volume on alternatives. Newsom moved from 3 to 6 cents over the past 48 hours—still low, but a doubling nonetheless—and some traders on the platform are speculating that insider information might be fueling this surge. The platform’s “Control of the Senate” and “House” contracts remain relatively stable, though Democrats have lost a couple of cents in the Senate control market since Monday, now trading at 47 cents versus Republicans at 52.
Over on Metaculus, which operates as a crowd forecasting site rather than a traditional marketplace, updates are less frequent but still telling. The community’s forecast for the probability that Biden will be the Democratic nominee is now down to 84 percent from 90 percent just a few days ago—a significant adjustment in what’s typically a slow-moving consensus. Similarly, their estimate for the probability of Trump being elected in November has risen to 48 percent, making it effectively a toss-up.
The most interesting pattern in the past 48 hours is this sudden re-evaluation of Biden’s standing. While traders and forecasters have long priced in his incumbency advantage, recent events appear to be shaking that assumption. The speed with which Biden’s nomination probability dropped suggests that market participants are increasingly sensitive to signals that he may not remain the party’s only viable option.
An emerging trend worth watching is the growing role of alternative candidates—especially Newsom and Harris—as proxies for Democratic unease. While the probability of an open convention or last-minute switch remains low, traders seem more willing than ever to hedge that possibility. In short, confidence in the establishment script is starting to wobble, and the markets are signaling it more loudly than before.