• Prediction Market News

  • 著者： Quiet. Please
  • ポッドキャスト

Prediction Market News

著者： Quiet. Please
無料で聴く

  • サマリー

  • Stay ahead of the markets with 'Prediction Bets,' a daily podcast that dives into the latest trends in prediction markets like Polymarket. Get expert insights on the best prediction bets, trades, and strategies to help you make informed decisions. Whether you're new to the world of prediction markets or an experienced trader, 'Prediction Bets' brings you the latest market movements, forecasts, and tips to maximize your success.

    For more https://www.quietperiodplease.com/
    Copyright 2024 Quiet. Please
    続きを読む 一部表示

あらすじ・解説

Stay ahead of the markets with 'Prediction Bets,' a daily podcast that dives into the latest trends in prediction markets like Polymarket. Get expert insights on the best prediction bets, trades, and strategies to help you make informed decisions. Whether you're new to the world of prediction markets or an experienced trader, 'Prediction Bets' brings you the latest market movements, forecasts, and tips to maximize your success.

For more https://www.quietperiodplease.com/
Copyright 2024 Quiet. Please
ビジネス・キャリア 政治・政府
続きを読む 一部表示
エピソード
  • **Prediction Markets Outpace Polls in Forecasting 2024 Election**

    **Prediction Markets Outpace Polls in Forecasting 2024 Election**
    2024/11/13
    **Prediction Markets: The New Era of Election Forecasting**

    In the wake of the 2024 presidential election, prediction markets have emerged as a more accurate and reliable tool for forecasting election outcomes compared to traditional polling. Platforms like Polymarket, PredictIt, and Kalshi have demonstrated their prowess by correctly predicting Donald Trump's victory weeks before the election.

    **Current Market Trends**

    - **Polymarket**: Trump's odds of winning rose significantly in the weeks leading up to the election, reaching around 60% by Election Day. The platform reacted quickly to state-by-state outcomes, predicting a Trump win with over 98% certainty by 1:30 AM on Wednesday[1].
    - **Kalshi**: This platform saw a massive influx of traffic, with 123 million site views in the 24 hours before the race was officially called. Kalshi's odds also favored Trump, mirroring Polymarket's predictions[1][4].
    - **PredictIt**: While specific numbers are not provided, PredictIt, operated by Victoria University in New Zealand, also showed a similar trend in favor of Trump.

    **Notable Market Shifts**

    The most interesting market shift in the past 48 hours was the rapid adjustment in odds as election results came in. Both Polymarket and Kalshi quickly updated their probabilities based on real-time data, outpacing traditional news outlets in calling the election. This responsiveness to current events is a key advantage of prediction markets over polls[1][4].

    **Emerging Trend**

    One emerging trend worth watching is the growing trust in prediction markets among voters. With the success of platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, there is a growing sense that these markets may replace traditional polling in the future. "Prediction markets are basically the ultimate thing that people are going to look at now," said Tarek Mansour, cofounder of Kalshi. This shift could pressure pollsters to improve their methods or risk being replaced entirely[1][4].

    In conclusion, prediction markets have proven their accuracy and reliability in forecasting election outcomes. With their ability to react quickly to current events and aggregate information into clear probabilities, they are poised to become a central tool in political forecasting. As these markets continue to grow and gain mainstream prominence, they may fundamentally change how we predict and understand political outcomes.
    続きを読む 一部表示
    3 分
  • **Prediction Markets See-Saw in Tense Final Hours Before Election**

    **Prediction Markets See-Saw in Tense Final Hours Before Election**
    2024/11/11
    **Prediction Markets See-Saw in Final Hours Before Election Day**

    In the run-up to the 2024 presidential election, prediction markets have been a focal point of attention, with significant shifts in odds reflecting the volatility of the race. Here’s a snapshot of the latest developments:

    **Top Markets by Volume:**
    - **PredictIt**: The most active platform, with over 518,000 shares traded on November 4, more than ten times the average over the past few months.
    - **Kalshi**: Showed minimal movement on Election Day until polls closed, with Donald Trump’s odds starting at 57.1% at 6 a.m., fluctuating slightly, and then surging to 92.5% by midnight as results came in.

    **Notable Price Movements:**
    - **PredictIt**: Trump’s lead varied significantly, with the electoral vote count toggling back and forth around the 270 needed to win. Data scientist Thomas Miller noted that the contest remained highly volatile, with the potential for unexpected turns.
    - **Polymarket and Metaculus**: While specific numbers are not readily available, these platforms have also seen significant trading activity, reflecting the tight race.

    **Analysis of Market Shifts:**
    The past 48 hours have seen surprising changes, particularly on PredictIt, where Trump’s lead narrowed and then widened again. Miller points out that the betting markets, including PredictIt, are biased toward Republicans due to a gender gap among participants. Despite this, he cautions that the race could still swing towards Kamala Harris, especially if key states like Pennsylvania or North Carolina turn blue.

    **Emerging Trend:**
    One emerging trend worth watching is the potential for day traders to dominate the market, leading to rapid shifts in odds as election results come in. Miller notes that the bettors will change their minds quickly if they see unexpected outcomes in crucial states, making the final hours of the election highly unpredictable.

    In summary, prediction markets have been a rollercoaster in the final hours before Election Day, with significant shifts in odds reflecting the tight race. The bias towards Republicans on platforms like PredictIt and the potential for day traders to influence the market make the outcome highly uncertain. As results come in, these markets will continue to provide a real-time snapshot of the election’s twists and turns.
    続きを読む 一部表示
    3 分
  • "Prediction Markets Disrupt Forecasting, Outperform Traditional Polls"

    "Prediction Markets Disrupt Forecasting, Outperform Traditional Polls"
    2024/11/07
    Prediction markets, once a niche curiosity, have surged to prominence as powerful tools for forecasting events, notably outperforming traditional polls in predicting election outcomes. Companies like Kalshi and Polymarket are leading this charge, capturing significant attention as they climb the app store charts and redefine how predictions are made in the digital age.

    A prediction market functions similarly to a stock market, but instead of trading shares of companies, participants buy and sell shares related to the outcome of future events. This could include election results, economic indicators, or even weather events. The price of each share typically reflects the collective probability, as determined by the market participants, of the event occurring.

    The accuracy of prediction markets in forecasting outcomes was notably evident during recent electoral contests where these platforms provided faster and more precise predictions than traditional polling methods. This accuracy can be attributed to the principle that the market aggregates a wide range of informed speculations, offering a composite forecast that often proves robust against the biases and errors known to affect poll-based forecasts.

    Despite their increasing popularity, prediction markets have faced regulatory challenges, particularly in jurisdictions where they blur the lines between financial trading and gambling. In the U.S., the legal status of these markets has been a topic of contention, impacting platforms like PredictIt, which operates under a special exemption from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission but is constrained by various regulatory requirements.

    However, the potential benefits of enhanced predictive accuracy continue to drive interest in these markets. They are used not just in political forecasting but are also being adapted for a wide array of applications, from anticipating economic trends to forecasting public health outcomes. As technology evolves and regulatory frameworks potentially adapt, prediction markets might become a mainstay in how individuals and institutions gauge future probabilities, leveraging the collective wisdom of the crowd to make better-informed decisions.
    続きを読む 一部表示
    2 分

Prediction Market Newsに寄せられたリスナーの声

カスタマーレビュー：以下のタブを選択することで、他のサイトのレビューをご覧になれます。

Audible.co.jp

Amazon.co.jp
レビューはまだありません。