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Prediction Market News

著者： Quiet. Please
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  • Stay ahead of the markets with 'Prediction Bets,' a daily podcast that dives into the latest trends in prediction markets like Polymarket. Get expert insights on the best prediction bets, trades, and strategies to help you make informed decisions. Whether you're new to the world of prediction markets or an experienced trader, 'Prediction Bets' brings you the latest market movements, forecasts, and tips to maximize your success.

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    Copyright 2024 Quiet. Please
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Stay ahead of the markets with 'Prediction Bets,' a daily podcast that dives into the latest trends in prediction markets like Polymarket. Get expert insights on the best prediction bets, trades, and strategies to help you make informed decisions. Whether you're new to the world of prediction markets or an experienced trader, 'Prediction Bets' brings you the latest market movements, forecasts, and tips to maximize your success.

For more https://www.quietperiodplease.com/
Copyright 2024 Quiet. Please
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  • Prediction Markets Swinging Sharply on Political, Geopolitical Developments

    Prediction Markets Swinging Sharply on Political, Geopolitical Developments
    2025/04/11
    It’s been a lively few days in the world of prediction markets, with several major platforms—Polymarket, PredictIt, and Metaculus—showing sharp movement in key political and geopolitical markets. As always, these markets offer a real-time snapshot of public sentiment mixed with probability, and right now, traders are rethinking more than a few major assumptions.

    One of the top-volume markets on Polymarket remains the 2024 U.S. presidential election, specifically the "Will Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee?" market. Over $6 million has now been traded, and in the last 48 hours the probability of Biden securing the nomination has fallen from 78% to 68%. This 10-point drop came amid a burst of speculation around his recent debate performance and renewed focus on his age, with public stumbles amplifying chatter about a potential replacement. Simultaneously, “Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic nominee?” has ticked up from 8% to 15%, suggesting that bettors see him as the most plausible alternative should something change.

    Over on PredictIt, one of the more surprising developments has been the volatility in the market for the Republican vice presidential pick. Just two days ago, Sen. Tim Scott led the field at 26 cents, but after vague endorsements and social media activity from Trump-world insiders, North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum has surged to 24 cents, just behind Scott, after starting the week at 11. That’s a dramatic increase and indicates a fast-shifting perception of internal campaign preferences.

    Metaculus, which focuses more on forecasting than betting, has seen notable moves in international markets. The probability of a ceasefire in Gaza before August 1 jumped six percentage points, from 32% to 38%, following a flurry of diplomatic overtures involving Egypt, Qatar, and the Biden administration. Though still a long shot, the swing reflects a tangible increase in optimism that the latest round of negotiations might bear fruit.

    What stands out most this week isn’t just the individual market moves, but the speed and synchronicity of shifts across platforms in response to informational signals, even weak ones. In several cases—Newsom on Polymarket, Burgum on PredictIt, the Gaza market on Metaculus—we’re seeing traders increasingly reactive to subtle cues, such as a photo op, a tweet, or a leaked memo. This micro-sensitivity hints at an emerging pattern: prediction markets are becoming faster and more responsive, with shorter feedback loops. That agility adds value, but also noise, as overreactions to ambiguous events can misprice probabilities in the short term.

    Overall, these platforms continue to sharpen their function not just as betting tools, but as barometers of real-time possibility. Whether or not Newsom’s rise is meaningful, or Burgum actually gets the nod, the markets reflect what participants are genuinely thinking, second-by-second. That makes watching them more than just a hobby—it’s becoming a way of tracking public expectations before formal analysts have even weighed in.
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    3 分
  • Prediction Markets Signal Shifting Sentiment in US Politics and Crypto

    Prediction Markets Signal Shifting Sentiment in US Politics and Crypto
    2025/04/09
    Prediction markets have had a lively couple of days, with surprising shifts across several platforms hinting at deeper undercurrents in politics, technology, and finance. The biggest story right now comes from Polymarket, where the “Trump to Win 2024 Presidential Election” market surged to 62 cents, up from 58 just two days ago. That four-point jump follows the news of President Joe Biden’s softer-than-expected debate showing and internal Democratic murmurs about potential replacement candidates. Interestingly, the Biden contract has slipped to 31 cents, with Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris both seeing modest upticks in long-shot markets — though neither has topped 4 cents yet. It’s a signal that traders think drama could still unfold in the Democratic nomination process.

    On PredictIt, the highest-volume market remains “Who will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election?” with more than $2 million traded overall. The price movements mirror those on Polymarket but are less sharp — Trump currently trades at 59 cents and Biden at 35. One notable change on PredictIt is in the “Republican VP nominee” market. The odds for JD Vance have climbed from 12 cents to 17 in just 48 hours, partly following a flattering Fox News interview and rising chatter in right-leaning circles. Tim Scott and Elise Stefanik remain top contenders, but Vance’s rapid ascent suggests traders are reacting to subtle campaign cues, perhaps ahead of an announcement.

    Metaculus, the crowdsourced forecasting platform that tends to attract domain experts, tells a more nuanced story. Its aggregated forecast for Trump winning in November now sits at 59 percent — the highest it's been this cycle, up from 54 just a week ago. What’s more interesting is that Metaculus forecasters believe there’s now nearly a 22 percent chance that Biden will drop out before the Democratic convention, up from 14 percent late last week. This dramatic sentiment shift may reflect more than just debate performances — possibly age-related concerns and behind-the-scenes donor discussions.

    The most intriguing development in the past 48 hours may actually be outside of politics. On Polymarket, the market for “Spot Bitcoin ETF Approved in Hong Kong Before August 1st” spiked from 21 cents to 35 cents on Tuesday after leaks suggesting increased regulatory progress. While still priced below 50, the movement is notable and reflects how leak-based markets can react disproportionately. With U.S. crypto regulation still uncertain, Hong Kong's faster pace might signal a geographic power shift in digital finance — something the markets seem to be waking up to.

    One emerging trend to watch is a growing divergence between expert platforms like Metaculus and mass-participation platforms like Polymarket. While Metaculus emphasizes methodical probability updates, Polymarket often reacts quickly — and sometimes irrationally — to minute signals like tweets, rumors, or short clips. This divergence is creating arbitrage opportunities for attentive users, and it’s also raising new questions about how well real-time sentiment tracks with longer-term forecasting accuracy. With volatility set to rise as elections approach, this separation in signal could be both a risk and an opportunity for traders.
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    4 分
  • Prediction markets see flurry of activity and shifting sentiment ahead of 2024 elections

    Prediction markets see flurry of activity and shifting sentiment ahead of 2024 elections
    2025/04/07
    In the world of prediction markets, the last 48 hours have been anything but dull. A flurry of activity, some surprising price swings, and a few emerging trends are reshaping the landscape across major platforms like Polymarket, PredictIt, and Metaculus.

    As of this morning, one of the highest-volume markets on Polymarket is "Will Trump be the Republican nominee in 2024?" which has traded over $9 million to date. It's currently pricing in a 79% probability, down slightly from 82% earlier in the week—a modest dip but notable given Trump's continued dominance in Republican polling. The move may reflect shifting sentiment after recent legal developments and Nikki Haley's growing media presence. Interestingly, Haley's probability surged from 4% to 9% since Monday, largely on speculation she could outperform expectations in upcoming primaries.

    On PredictIt, the "Who will win the 2024 US Presidential election?" market remains the most active. Joe Biden holds steady at 42 cents, while Trump has dipped to 39 cents, down from 41 midweek. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., running as an independent, has shown some unexpected momentum, with his shares creeping up to 7 cents. That’s a small shift numerically, but given a traditionally two-horse race, it’s notable—and mirrors a broader public interest in third-party candidates not seen since 1992.

    Metaculus, being more long-term and probabilistic in nature, has seen an interesting swing in its aggregated community forecast for "Will AI outperform humans at all professional tasks before 2040?" The probability ticked up from 33% to 38% as of Thursday evening. This comes after the release of a new paper by Anthropic detailing major advancements in model alignment—fueling renewed optimism (or concern, depending on perspective) in the rapid pace of AI development.

    One of the more surprising moves came out of a new Polymarket listing: "Will Taylor Swift attend the Super Bowl?" Initially priced around 65%, that surged to 91% in under 12 hours after the Chiefs clinched the AFC Championship and media reports started circling about her travel availability during the Tokyo leg of her tour. While seemingly trivial, the market reveals just how quickly crowdsourced sentiment can react to real-world logistics—and also how pop culture now carries market-moving weight, not just politics and economics.

    A trend that seems to be gaining momentum across all platforms is the increased granularity in political forecasting. On Polymarket alone, there are now active contracts on individual state outcomes in the 2024 general election—including tight battlegrounds like Michigan and Arizona. These markets are drawing tens of thousands of dollars in liquidity, which suggests a growing appetite for more nuanced, multi-scenario forecasts beyond the binary “who wins” format.

    The takeaway? Prediction markets continue to evolve—not just in what they're trading, but in the way traders interact with unfolding news. As platforms diversify and data flows faster, expect even more granular, real-time insights into everything from politics to pop culture.
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    3 分

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