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Prediction markets see flurry of activity and shifting sentiment ahead of 2024 elections
- 2025/04/07
- 再生時間： 3 分
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サマリー
あらすじ・解説
In the world of prediction markets, the last 48 hours have been anything but dull. A flurry of activity, some surprising price swings, and a few emerging trends are reshaping the landscape across major platforms like Polymarket, PredictIt, and Metaculus.
As of this morning, one of the highest-volume markets on Polymarket is "Will Trump be the Republican nominee in 2024?" which has traded over $9 million to date. It's currently pricing in a 79% probability, down slightly from 82% earlier in the week—a modest dip but notable given Trump's continued dominance in Republican polling. The move may reflect shifting sentiment after recent legal developments and Nikki Haley's growing media presence. Interestingly, Haley's probability surged from 4% to 9% since Monday, largely on speculation she could outperform expectations in upcoming primaries.
On PredictIt, the "Who will win the 2024 US Presidential election?" market remains the most active. Joe Biden holds steady at 42 cents, while Trump has dipped to 39 cents, down from 41 midweek. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., running as an independent, has shown some unexpected momentum, with his shares creeping up to 7 cents. That’s a small shift numerically, but given a traditionally two-horse race, it’s notable—and mirrors a broader public interest in third-party candidates not seen since 1992.
Metaculus, being more long-term and probabilistic in nature, has seen an interesting swing in its aggregated community forecast for "Will AI outperform humans at all professional tasks before 2040?" The probability ticked up from 33% to 38% as of Thursday evening. This comes after the release of a new paper by Anthropic detailing major advancements in model alignment—fueling renewed optimism (or concern, depending on perspective) in the rapid pace of AI development.
One of the more surprising moves came out of a new Polymarket listing: "Will Taylor Swift attend the Super Bowl?" Initially priced around 65%, that surged to 91% in under 12 hours after the Chiefs clinched the AFC Championship and media reports started circling about her travel availability during the Tokyo leg of her tour. While seemingly trivial, the market reveals just how quickly crowdsourced sentiment can react to real-world logistics—and also how pop culture now carries market-moving weight, not just politics and economics.
A trend that seems to be gaining momentum across all platforms is the increased granularity in political forecasting. On Polymarket alone, there are now active contracts on individual state outcomes in the 2024 general election—including tight battlegrounds like Michigan and Arizona. These markets are drawing tens of thousands of dollars in liquidity, which suggests a growing appetite for more nuanced, multi-scenario forecasts beyond the binary “who wins” format.
The takeaway? Prediction markets continue to evolve—not just in what they're trading, but in the way traders interact with unfolding news. As platforms diversify and data flows faster, expect even more granular, real-time insights into everything from politics to pop culture.
As of this morning, one of the highest-volume markets on Polymarket is "Will Trump be the Republican nominee in 2024?" which has traded over $9 million to date. It's currently pricing in a 79% probability, down slightly from 82% earlier in the week—a modest dip but notable given Trump's continued dominance in Republican polling. The move may reflect shifting sentiment after recent legal developments and Nikki Haley's growing media presence. Interestingly, Haley's probability surged from 4% to 9% since Monday, largely on speculation she could outperform expectations in upcoming primaries.
On PredictIt, the "Who will win the 2024 US Presidential election?" market remains the most active. Joe Biden holds steady at 42 cents, while Trump has dipped to 39 cents, down from 41 midweek. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., running as an independent, has shown some unexpected momentum, with his shares creeping up to 7 cents. That’s a small shift numerically, but given a traditionally two-horse race, it’s notable—and mirrors a broader public interest in third-party candidates not seen since 1992.
Metaculus, being more long-term and probabilistic in nature, has seen an interesting swing in its aggregated community forecast for "Will AI outperform humans at all professional tasks before 2040?" The probability ticked up from 33% to 38% as of Thursday evening. This comes after the release of a new paper by Anthropic detailing major advancements in model alignment—fueling renewed optimism (or concern, depending on perspective) in the rapid pace of AI development.
One of the more surprising moves came out of a new Polymarket listing: "Will Taylor Swift attend the Super Bowl?" Initially priced around 65%, that surged to 91% in under 12 hours after the Chiefs clinched the AFC Championship and media reports started circling about her travel availability during the Tokyo leg of her tour. While seemingly trivial, the market reveals just how quickly crowdsourced sentiment can react to real-world logistics—and also how pop culture now carries market-moving weight, not just politics and economics.
A trend that seems to be gaining momentum across all platforms is the increased granularity in political forecasting. On Polymarket alone, there are now active contracts on individual state outcomes in the 2024 general election—including tight battlegrounds like Michigan and Arizona. These markets are drawing tens of thousands of dollars in liquidity, which suggests a growing appetite for more nuanced, multi-scenario forecasts beyond the binary “who wins” format.
The takeaway? Prediction markets continue to evolve—not just in what they're trading, but in the way traders interact with unfolding news. As platforms diversify and data flows faster, expect even more granular, real-time insights into everything from politics to pop culture.