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  • "Prediction Markets Shift Ahead of 2024 Election: Trump Leads Biden, AI Pause Doubts Grow"

    "Prediction Markets Shift Ahead of 2024 Election: Trump Leads Biden, AI Pause Doubts Grow"
    2025/08/17
    Prediction markets have been buzzing this week, with strong movements across Polymarket, PredictIt, and Metaculus. Right now, Polymarket is dominating both in volume and in setting the tone for expectations ahead of the U.S. presidential election. The top market by far is the one asking who will win the 2024 U.S. presidential race. Donald Trump currently holds a 56 percent probability, while Joe Biden has slipped to 38 percent, down three points from earlier this week. Kamala Harris, Gavin Newsom, and Michelle Obama continue to trade in low single digits, but Kamala ticked up slightly yesterday to 5 percent, a one-point bump that has drawn attention in political forecasting circles.

    Over on PredictIt, the top markets have followed suit. Trump's contract for winning the presidency is trading at 57 cents, with Biden trailing at 39 cents. One of the more surprising changes there came in the market over who will be the Democratic nominee. Biden is still leading with 68 cents, but that figure was over 73 cents just two days ago. The five-point drop appears tied to a mix of recent cognitive gaffes from the President combined with increased chatter over a possible last-minute shift at the convention if polling continues to weaken.

    Metaculus, the crowd-forecasting and prediction aggregation platform often favored for long-term scenarios, has begun reflecting more pessimism about the likelihood of an AI pause being implemented by the end of 2025. That probability dropped from 42 percent to just 35 percent in the last 48 hours. Forecasters cite the acceleration of new model announcements and a general lack of legislative discussion on a global moratorium as signals working against such a move.

    The most notable market movement in the past two days actually came from an unexpected sector. Polymarket's "Will Apple release a generative AI product by the end of 2024" contract surged from 41 percent to 62 percent following new reports that Apple may announce on-device generative tools in June during their Worldwide Developers Conference. Insiders seem to believe a Siri overhaul is imminent and would count as a confirmation on the contract. Traders who acted earlier this week locked in sizable gains, but the remaining upside now seems limited unless Apple confirms the feature set more directly.

    One emerging trend to watch closely across these platforms is the pivot toward geopolitics, particularly regarding China and Europe. Prediction markets are beginning to open more volume around scenarios like a Taiwan blockade or leadership changes in Russia. Metaculus has recently seen record participation in scenarios involving cyber attacks attributed to nation states, showing that what used to be fringe areas of focus are moving into the mainstream forecasting world.

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    3 分
  • Prediction Markets Reflect Volatility Ahead of US Election, Global Conflict Risks, and AI Developments

    Prediction Markets Reflect Volatility Ahead of US Election, Global Conflict Risks, and AI Developments
    2025/08/14
    The last two days in prediction markets have been anything but quiet. Across Polymarket, PredictIt, and Metaculus, massive shifts in sentiment are painting a picture of increasing volatility ahead of the US election, global conflict potential, and emerging tech breakthroughs.

    Starting with Polymarket, the platform remains dominant in terms of volume. The most traded market by a wide margin is still the 2024 US presidential election. As of this morning, Donald Trump’s odds have surged to 62 percent, up from 56 percent just 48 hours ago. This follows a combination of polling shifts in key swing states and widespread reaction to Joe Biden’s recent debate performance announcement. Biden now sits at 33 percent, with third parties and other options making up the rest.

    But what really caught my attention is the flurry of activity in markets beyond electoral politics. The Polymarket contract on whether Israel will carry out a significant military operation in Lebanon before the end of June jumped from 38 percent to 59 percent overnight. Analysts point to escalating rhetoric from both sides and increased IDF troop movements along the border. Reports from The Times of Israel seem to confirm preparations are underway, though no official timetable has been released.

    On Metaculus, a longer-term platform known for its community forecasting approach, the question of when artificial general intelligence might arrive has seen a sharp correction. After months of trending toward optimism, predictions that AGI would be achieved before 2030 dropped from 28 percent to just 21 percent. This followed OpenAI cofounder Ilya Sutskever’s announcement that he was launching a new lab with a slower, safety-oriented timeline for AI experimentation.

    For those tracking PredictIt, the most notable movement came in the House control market. The probability Republicans retain control rose from 61 cents to 68 cents per share. That shift appears linked to two developments. One, a recent special election in Utah went better than expected for the GOP. Two, Dianne Feinstein’s seat in the Senate is now in play, and party control questions tend to ripple down into House expectations.

    The most interesting trend I’m watching is the increased globalization of prediction markets. Polymarket, which was once heavily tilted toward US-centric questions, is now seeing real liquidity in non-domestic events. For example, their market on “Airstrikes in Taiwan by end of 2024” spiked from 14 percent to 25 percent after PLA aircraft buzzed the island in record numbers. Even minor international elections, such as the upcoming vote in Argentina over capital controls, are pulling in six figures in value.

    Collectively, these shifts suggest forecasters are responding more quickly to breaking news, and users are becoming increasingly sophisticated in parsing global risk scenarios. Markets are no longer just betting venues, they have become real-time thermometers for geopolitical tension and technology disruption.

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    3 分
  • Prediction markets see volatility as Trump surges, Gaza ceasefire prospects rise, and AGI likelihood grows

    Prediction markets see volatility as Trump surges, Gaza ceasefire prospects rise, and AGI likelihood grows
    2025/08/12
    It has been a busy few days in the world of prediction markets, with some big swings across platforms like Polymarket, PredictIt, and Metaculus. The most active market by volume over the past 48 hours has once again been the 2024 U.S. presidential election, with Donald Trump's contract on Polymarket jumping to 56 cents as of this morning, up from 51 cents just two days ago. That move appears to have been triggered by the announcement of a favorable internal poll from a major Republican super PAC, which shows Trump outperforming in key swing states. Joe Biden's contract fell to 39 cents in response, its lowest level in nearly two months.

    Another major mover on Polymarket has been the market on whether a ceasefire agreement will be reached in Gaza by the end of June. Just 48 hours ago, the market stood at 34 cents for yes. Following reports from Reuters that Egypt was brokering a new deal that both Hamas and Israel were reportedly considering seriously, the probability shot up to 44 cents before retracing slightly to 41 cents midday today. Traders remain cautious due to prior false starts, but volume has picked up notably, suggesting that sentiment is shifting again in response to new diplomatic signals.

    Metaculus, which leans more toward long-term forecasting, has seen subtle but significant movement on its forecast for whether artificial general intelligence, or AGI, will emerge before 2030. The community forecast now sits at 28 percent, up from 25 percent just three weeks ago. That may not sound like much, but it is the largest month-to-month jump since last October. The shift follows a series of announcements from leading AI labs about breakthroughs in multimodal capabilities and agentic reasoning systems. While still a minority view, more forecasters seem willing to entertain the idea that AGI may be closer than previously estimated.

    On PredictIt, the Senate control market for the upcoming election made headlines this week as well. Republican control now trades at 61 cents, up from 54 cents earlier this week. A new poll out of Michigan showing the GOP candidate leading in a swing Senate race appears to have fueled the movement. While the shift might seem small, these margins matter in a market where expectations are tightly coupled to fundraising and turnout models.

    One emerging trend to watch is the growing divergence between crypto-based markets like Polymarket and expert-curated platforms like Metaculus. On the issue of a potential Russian offensive in northeastern Ukraine, Polymarket odds moved sharply following satellite images circulated on social media, jumping to 52 percent for a new offensive by mid-July. Metaculus remained more conservative, with its forecast only inching up to 39 percent. This reflects a broader pattern we are seeing more often, where crowd sentiment reacts quickly to unverified reports, while calibrated forecasting models remain more measured.

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    3 分
  • Prediction Markets Volatile as 2024 Race Heats Up

    Prediction Markets Volatile as 2024 Race Heats Up
    2025/08/10
    The past forty-eight hours have brought a flurry of unexpected movement across key prediction markets, as traders and forecasters adjust to fast-breaking news in both politics and global events. On Polymarket, one of the fastest-growing decentralized platforms, volume remains heavily concentrated on the 2024 US presidential race, with the market asking who will win the general election trading at over two million dollars in open interest. As of this morning, Donald Trump regained the lead from Joe Biden, now trading at 53 cents to Biden’s 44 cents, a reversal from just three days ago when Biden briefly overtook Trump following the Supreme Court’s hearing on presidential immunity. The volatility suggests traders are weighing legal uncertainty against election fundamentals.

    Meanwhile, on PredictIt, which caters more heavily to political event forecasting, the market on whether Joe Biden will be the Democratic nominee in November has seen a sharp price correction. As of Tuesday morning, Biden’s probability sits at 75 percent, down six points from Sunday. This dip follows reports of increasing Democratic concern over his age and performance, especially after an unflattering New York Times poll released Monday showed Trump leading Biden in several key swing states. Interestingly, Gavin Newsom has surged slightly, now trading at 12 percent, a level he had not reached since early March.

    On Metaculus, the community-driven forecasting platform popular with forecasters in science, technology, and geopolitics, the most notable activity comes from a different arena entirely. A question on whether there will be a declared ceasefire in Gaza before July first has jumped from 18 percent to 34 percent likelihood. Forecasters have pointed to renewed diplomatic activity from Egypt and Qatar, along with recent comments from US Secretary of State Antony Blinken suggesting a framework is finally coming together. If this momentum continues, we could see a rapid re-pricing of several Middle East-related markets in the coming days.

    What stands out from the past two days is the degree to which markets have become hypersensitive to even minor shifts in narrative. One emerging trend worth watching is that information from traditionally slow media outlets is getting priced into markets more rapidly than before. For example, the Times poll on Biden’s swing state performance led to instant declines on both Polymarket and PredictIt, within minutes of publication. This suggests that human traders, not just algorithmic scraping tools, are becoming faster at interpreting complex multi-factor reports and turning them into confident positions. It may also reflect broader awareness that 2024’s electoral dynamics are more fluid than usual, leaving even experienced forecasters cautious.

    As we move into the second half of this week, I’ll be watching closely for any follow-through on the Gaza ceasefire market, as well as any further erosion in confidence in Biden among Democratic primary bettors. Thanks for tuning in, and make sure to subscribe for ongoing coverage of the world’s most dynamic forecasting spaces.

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    3 分
  • "Prediction Markets React Rapidly to Tech Rumors and Political Shifts"

    "Prediction Markets React Rapidly to Tech Rumors and Political Shifts"
    2025/08/07
    The biggest headlines in prediction markets right now are all about political probability swings and a major tech-related surprise that caught many traders off guard. On Polymarket, which continues to dominate in daily trading volume, the top market remains the question of who will win the 2024 United States presidential election. As of this morning, Donald Trump is trading at 58 cents, while Joe Biden holds at 36 cents. Notably, Biden has dropped 6 points in the last 48 hours, fueled in part by increasing concerns around third-party entrants and new polling out of Michigan and Arizona that shows Trump widening his lead among independents. On PredictIt, which still operates under a university exemption while transitioning to new ownership, the GOP nomination market remains red hot. Trump is now holding 83 cents to be the nominee, while Ron DeSantis has fallen below 2 cents for the first time. Despite staying in the race, there is almost no remaining trader confidence that he can overcome Trump’s lead.

    Over on Metaculus, the tone is more academic but no less fascinating. One of the most-watched questions now is whether a formal ceasefire will be reached in Gaza before September. Probabilities on that market fell sharply from 42 percent to just 28 percent after Hamas rejected the latest terms brokered by Egypt and Qatar. Metaculus also features another standout this week: the probability that GPT-5 will be released before November 1. That jumped from 35 percent to 51 percent after multiple job postings at OpenAI mentioned GPT-5 explicitly, which was previously under wraps. Users on platform forums speculated this move may have been intentional, potentially to signal upcoming demos or partnerships.

    The most surprising shift in the past 48 hours came from a newer Polymarket listing asking whether Apple would announce any form of partnership with OpenAI during June’s Worldwide Developers Conference. That market started the week at just 12 cents and has exploded to 47 cents by this morning. The surge followed a report from Bloomberg indicating that Apple has been deep in talks with OpenAI, specifically around integrating ChatGPT into iOS 18. That level of detail, combined with Apple’s silence on the matter, has sparked a flurry of trades and made it one of the fastest-moving markets of the month.

    One emerging trend that has grown clearer over the past two weeks is the increasing overlap between tech sector rumors and market reaction times. Where it used to take days for platform odds to shift based on corporate developments, now we are seeing major jumps within just a few hours of a tweet or leak. This acceleration reflects both rising interest from new users and a more agile information ecosystem feeding into prediction platforms in real time. It suggests a growing fusion between traditional analysis and crowdsourced forecasting, especially in fast-moving sectors like artificial intelligence and semiconductors.

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    3 分
  • Prediction Markets Fluctuate Wildly Amid Shifting Political Narratives

    Prediction Markets Fluctuate Wildly Amid Shifting Political Narratives
    2025/08/05
    Prediction markets have been especially active this week as traders respond to shifting political, economic, and technological signals across platforms like Polymarket, PredictIt, and Metaculus. The big headline over the past 48 hours has been the rapid pricing change in markets related to the first presidential debate and whether Joe Biden will remain the Democratic nominee through November.

    On Polymarket, the contract asking “Will Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee on election day?” saw a sharp 9 percent drop, falling from 72 cents to 63 between Monday afternoon and early Wednesday. The slide came in response to growing speculation about Biden’s debate performance and renewed chatter about alternative candidates. California Governor Gavin Newsom and Vice President Kamala Harris have seen their names pop up more frequently online, and while no formal shifts are in play, traders appear to be hedging.

    Meanwhile, the market for “Will Kamala Harris be the 2024 Democratic nominee?” rose from 14 to 22 cents over the same period, reflecting increased uncertainty. PredictIt is showing a similar spike. Harris’s price climbed roughly 7 cents since Tuesday afternoon with volume up triple its average daily count. The reaction seems largely sentiment driven after a flurry of media coverage and social media speculation, but sentiment alone can move these markets swiftly.

    Another surprise came in the form of tech-related forecasts on Metaculus. The question of whether a 100 billion parameter open-source language model will outperform GPT-4 on benchmarks by the end of this year just jumped from 34 percent to 48 percent probability. Contributors cited Mistral's latest paper and Anthropic’s Claude improvements as signs that the open source community is closing the gap. That might sound like an inside baseball topic, but the implications are significant for AI governance and commercialization later this year.

    One of the most watched markets right now, though, is the outcome of the U.S. House race in November. On Polymarket, the Republican Party holding control of the House was trading at 66 cents, but dipped to 60 this morning after fresh special election polling showed tighter-than-expected races in New York and Pennsylvania. The shift may be temporary, but it reveals just how sensitive these predictions are to even single-race movement.

    The emerging trend that has caught my eye is how quickly macro political narratives now drive micro market action. Whether it's a CNN segment, a leaked memo, or even a viral clip on TikTok, prediction market prices are increasingly reactive to small catalysts. That raises questions about signal quality versus noise and makes these markets more interesting, but also more volatile.

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    3 分
  • Prediction Markets Reflect Evolving Trends Ahead of 2024 US Election

    Prediction Markets Reflect Evolving Trends Ahead of 2024 US Election
    2025/08/03
    In the world of prediction markets, the past 48 hours have delivered some unexpected movements and pointed to intriguing emerging patterns. Polymarket continues to dominate in terms of volume, particularly around the 2024 United States presidential election. As of this morning, the market answering "Will Trump win the 2024 Election?" is leading in total volume with over 14 million dollars wagered. His price dipped from 59 cents to 55 cents overnight following the news that the Supreme Court will allow Colorado to keep him on the ballot. Biden, meanwhile, saw a modest uptick, climbing from 38 cents to 41 cents. These shifts suggest that legal uncertainties around Trump’s eligibility are exerting more influence than polling data at the moment.

    On PredictIt, the most active market in the last 24 hours is focused on whether Joe Biden will be the Democratic nominee in November. Despite widespread speculation and media chatter about a potential replacement, Biden remains heavily favored, trading at 78 cents. However, that is down from 83 cents just two days ago. The Vice President, Kamala Harris, saw a surprising bump, moving from 7 cents to 11 cents during that same window. The shift comes after a round of high-profile media coverage and another round of unsourced rumors about Biden’s health. It may not reflect insider information just yet, but it does point to growing uncertainty among retail traders about the party’s direction.

    Meanwhile, Metaculus, a platform known for aggregating expert forecasts, saw a notable shift in the probabilities around the outcome of the war in Ukraine. The forecast for Russian troops being pushed beyond pre-2014 lines within the next twelve months dropped from 26 percent to 20 percent after several intelligence reports hinted at renewed Russian advances around the eastern front. The platform also adjusted its consensus forecast for when the war is likely to end. The most probable window is now projected in mid-to-late 2025, slightly later than previous predictions which had placed it in early 2025.

    Perhaps the most surprising market shift came from Polymarket’s line on whether Apple will release a new product focused on artificial intelligence before October of this year. After hovering below 30 percent for weeks, the market jumped to 52 percent late yesterday following a leak reported by Bloomberg suggesting that Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference will include a dedicated segment on generative AI functionality in iOS. This marks a significant sentiment flip and may hint that major industry players are reorienting faster than anticipated toward AI-first experiences.

    One emerging trend worth watching is the rising correlation between major market movements and real-time social media chatter, especially on platforms like X, formerly known as Twitter. Traders seem increasingly reactive to breaking narratives, especially when those narratives come bundled with plausible sourcing or insider claims. The velocity of these reactions makes traditional predictions feel just slightly behind. For listeners trying to stay ahead, that means keeping your finger not just on the data, but on the digital pulse.

    Thanks for tuning in to today’s update. Be sure to subscribe to keep track of the fast-moving world of prediction markets. This has been a Quiet Please production, for more check out quiet please dot ai.
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    4 分
  • Prediction Markets See Surge in Activity Amid Biden Replacement Speculation and Other High-Profile Events

    Prediction Markets See Surge in Activity Amid Biden Replacement Speculation and Other High-Profile Events
    2025/07/31
    Prediction markets have seen a burst of unexpected movement over the past forty-eight hours, especially across Polymarket, PredictIt, and Metaculus. On Polymarket, the largest surge in trading volume has centered around the question of whether Joe Biden will be replaced as the Democratic presidential nominee before November. As of this morning, that market had over 2.2 million dollars in volume and saw a sharp spike, rising from 21 cents to 36 cents in just over a day. That means traders are suddenly putting the probability of a Biden exit at thirty-six percent. The momentum appears tied to concern after an uneven press conference and renewed media speculation about internal DNC strategy. Interestingly, volume on this market outpaced the “Trump to win the presidency” market, which has traditionally seen the most engagement on the platform.

    Meanwhile on PredictIt, a surprising change came from the “Who will be the Republican vice presidential nominee” market. Just forty-eight hours ago, Senator J D Vance was trading at 19 cents. He has now surged to 27 cents, overtaking Tim Scott and nearly matching Doug Burgum, who has led in recent weeks. The shift appears to be fueled by sharp commentary from several conservative donors and a favorable segment on Fox News highlighting Vance’s appeal in swing state demographics. PredictIt users also showed rising interest in the “Will Taylor Swift attend the Democratic National Convention” market, where yes shares moved from 23 cents to 31 cents amid fresh rumors she could endorse Biden on the convention stage.

    Metaculus, known for its longer horizon forecasting, showed a modest but notable change in its collective prediction for whether an artificial general intelligence will be developed before 2030. The community estimate ticked up from 13 percent to 15 percent, pushed by publication of a new research paper from DeepMind outlining progress in multi-modal reasoning. While the swing is small, the conversation within Metaculus reflects growing concern about acceleration in open-source model development and limited regulatory oversight.

    The most surprising development overall came from a newer Polymarket listing about whether a hurricane would make landfall in Florida before the end of August. That market rocketed from 12 cents to 29 cents after several meteorologists upgraded forecasts and models began to converge on more active early-season storm conditions. In the past, weather markets have been relatively sleepy, so this could be the start of something different.

    One pattern that keeps emerging is the increasing crossover of celebrity involvement and market volatility. Whether it is Taylor Swift and the DNC or Elon Musk’s shadow over the next SEC chair pick, the mere whiff of high-profile intervention is proving enough to swing probabilities. Traders seem increasingly attuned to cultural winds, not just hard data. That could mark a shift in how predictive consensus is formed as markets become more mainstream.

    Thanks for tuning in and remember to subscribe so you never miss an update. This has been a Quiet Please production, for more check out quiet please dot ai.
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    3 分