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**Prediction Markets See-Saw in Tense Final Hours Before Election**
- 2024/11/11
- 再生時間： 3 分
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**Prediction Markets See-Saw in Final Hours Before Election Day**
In the run-up to the 2024 presidential election, prediction markets have been a focal point of attention, with significant shifts in odds reflecting the volatility of the race. Here’s a snapshot of the latest developments:
**Top Markets by Volume:**
- **PredictIt**: The most active platform, with over 518,000 shares traded on November 4, more than ten times the average over the past few months.
- **Kalshi**: Showed minimal movement on Election Day until polls closed, with Donald Trump’s odds starting at 57.1% at 6 a.m., fluctuating slightly, and then surging to 92.5% by midnight as results came in.
**Notable Price Movements:**
- **PredictIt**: Trump’s lead varied significantly, with the electoral vote count toggling back and forth around the 270 needed to win. Data scientist Thomas Miller noted that the contest remained highly volatile, with the potential for unexpected turns.
- **Polymarket and Metaculus**: While specific numbers are not readily available, these platforms have also seen significant trading activity, reflecting the tight race.
**Analysis of Market Shifts:**
The past 48 hours have seen surprising changes, particularly on PredictIt, where Trump’s lead narrowed and then widened again. Miller points out that the betting markets, including PredictIt, are biased toward Republicans due to a gender gap among participants. Despite this, he cautions that the race could still swing towards Kamala Harris, especially if key states like Pennsylvania or North Carolina turn blue.
**Emerging Trend:**
One emerging trend worth watching is the potential for day traders to dominate the market, leading to rapid shifts in odds as election results come in. Miller notes that the bettors will change their minds quickly if they see unexpected outcomes in crucial states, making the final hours of the election highly unpredictable.
In summary, prediction markets have been a rollercoaster in the final hours before Election Day, with significant shifts in odds reflecting the tight race. The bias towards Republicans on platforms like PredictIt and the potential for day traders to influence the market make the outcome highly uncertain. As results come in, these markets will continue to provide a real-time snapshot of the election’s twists and turns.
In the run-up to the 2024 presidential election, prediction markets have been a focal point of attention, with significant shifts in odds reflecting the volatility of the race. Here’s a snapshot of the latest developments:
**Top Markets by Volume:**
- **PredictIt**: The most active platform, with over 518,000 shares traded on November 4, more than ten times the average over the past few months.
- **Kalshi**: Showed minimal movement on Election Day until polls closed, with Donald Trump’s odds starting at 57.1% at 6 a.m., fluctuating slightly, and then surging to 92.5% by midnight as results came in.
**Notable Price Movements:**
- **PredictIt**: Trump’s lead varied significantly, with the electoral vote count toggling back and forth around the 270 needed to win. Data scientist Thomas Miller noted that the contest remained highly volatile, with the potential for unexpected turns.
- **Polymarket and Metaculus**: While specific numbers are not readily available, these platforms have also seen significant trading activity, reflecting the tight race.
**Analysis of Market Shifts:**
The past 48 hours have seen surprising changes, particularly on PredictIt, where Trump’s lead narrowed and then widened again. Miller points out that the betting markets, including PredictIt, are biased toward Republicans due to a gender gap among participants. Despite this, he cautions that the race could still swing towards Kamala Harris, especially if key states like Pennsylvania or North Carolina turn blue.
**Emerging Trend:**
One emerging trend worth watching is the potential for day traders to dominate the market, leading to rapid shifts in odds as election results come in. Miller notes that the bettors will change their minds quickly if they see unexpected outcomes in crucial states, making the final hours of the election highly unpredictable.
In summary, prediction markets have been a rollercoaster in the final hours before Election Day, with significant shifts in odds reflecting the tight race. The bias towards Republicans on platforms like PredictIt and the potential for day traders to influence the market make the outcome highly uncertain. As results come in, these markets will continue to provide a real-time snapshot of the election’s twists and turns.